Celina, Texas Home Prices Drop as Buyers Wait on Tollway Extension

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Date:

08 Aug 2026

Homes in Celina, Texas have dropped 15 to 20 percent from their pandemic peaks, and 5.7 months of inventory suggests prices haven’t finished falling. The Dallas North Tollway extension is scheduled to reach the city next year. It will cut commute times to Plano and Frisco, where corporate headquarters employ the relocating professionals who drive much of Celina’s demand. According to Wayne Myers, team lead at KW 1st Team in Celina, the current correction rewards buyers who can hold long enough for that infrastructure to arrive, and it punishes anyone expecting a quick return.

Myers has worked in Celina for 10 years, watching the city grow from a small town to roughly 72,000 residents. Over the past five years, Celina has ranked among the top five fastest-growing cities in the country, and was the fastest-growing in two of those years. The city adds roughly 1,000 new residents per month.

Tollway Changes Commutes

The Dallas North Tollway currently terminates at Highway 380, south of Celina proper. Once the extension opens, it will shorten drives to Frisco and Plano, where Toyota and other major employers are headquartered. Myers says buyers who work in those corridors are already purchasing in Celina at corrected prices, anticipating the shorter commute.

The commercial side is following the residential growth. Celina has recently added a Costco, a Home Depot, a Walmart, and a Lowe’s, all on Preston Road. “We are the smallest city ever to get a Costco,” Myers says, referring to the town’s size when the store was first announced. National retailers building into a city of 72,000 signals confidence in continued population growth.

For a buyer purchasing today and holding five or more years, the calculation is direct: buy at corrected prices, benefit from tollway completion, and ride the appreciation that follows commercial density.

Five-Year Minimum Required

Myers is blunt about the holding period. “You need to own any real estate for at least five years to make real money,” he says. The pandemic was an exception. Home prices rose 15 to 20 percent in a single year, creating expectations that are now correcting back to reality.

Buyers who purchased two years ago and need to sell today are likely facing a loss. But Myers points out that anyone who bought five years ago is likely selling at a profit. The difference between those outcomes is entirely about time held.

This five-year requirement makes Celina uncomfortable for anyone without a long time horizon. If a job change or family situation could force a sale within three years, sellers face a difficult environment: builders are discounting aggressively, and 72 percent of listings have taken price reductions. Selling now means facing conditions that may soften further.

Builders Are Competition

Half of all home sales in Celina are new construction. With 34 active developments and roughly 286 building permits filed in June alone, builders set the pace. Myers calls them “the most sophisticated seller in the market.” These are publicly traded companies with economists who analyze showings and adjust prices weekly.

Builders are offering interest rate buydowns as low as 4 percent on conventional loans that would otherwise carry rates above 6.5 percent. They’re adding appliances, blinds, and agent bonuses. Even developers, who sell lots to builders, are now offering incentives to agents. Myers says he has never seen this in his 27 years of practice.

Existing homeowners must compete with these builder incentives. Myers recently negotiated $26,000 in concessions on a resale listing to match builder incentives. Resale homes do carry one advantage: older properties sit on larger lots and carry lower tax burdens, since they lack the public improvement district or municipal utility district assessments that fund infrastructure in new developments.

The median days on market in Celina is 75. But homes priced correctly from the start sell in an average of 25 days. According to Myers, homes that chase the market by starting too high and then reducing the price average 100 days on market. They end up at the same final price anyway.

Land Market Signals

Land in Celina runs roughly $100,000 per acre for residential parcels with road frontage, water, and sewer access. Commercial parcels on Preston Road approach $1 million per acre for smaller lots. Myers says the supply of developable land is shrinking as the city builds out. He expects land purchased now to appreciate over a five-to-ten-year hold as remaining parcels become scarcer.

Interest rates remain the variable Myers watches most closely. A rate decrease would ease affordability pressure and could slow the price corrections. Without a rate decrease, elevated inventory and builder incentives will continue pulling prices lower. That benefits buyers entering now, but it extends the timeline for anyone waiting to sell.

“If there’s no correction, they would never be able to buy a house without my help,” Myers says of his children in their twenties. For first-time buyers entering at today’s prices with a five-year minimum hold, the correction is the opportunity. They just need to wait for the tollway, the commercial development, and the population growth to catch up with the current supply.

About the Expert: Wayne Myers is Team Lead at KW 1st Team, with 27 years of real estate experience including a decade focused on the Celina, Texas market.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

Residential Real Estate