The Quiet Surge: Florida's Luxury Market Defies Expectations

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

20 Jun 2025

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“We’re witnessing what I would call a quiet surge of ultra luxury home buyers, driven primarily by flight to quality, both in where they spend their time and the quality of area where their family will gather,” says Jonathan Spears, founder of Spears Group and Compass.

At just 33 years old, Spears has established himself as a powerhouse in Florida’s luxury real estate market. His team, ranked as the number one large team at Compass in Florida with over $2.5 billion in career sales, has carved out a niche in what he calls “The Hamptons of the South,” a 28-mile stretch of beach along County Road 30A in Florida’s panhandle.

A Market Defying National Trends

While many Florida markets are experiencing an oversupply of inventory, Spears is witnessing a remarkable phenomenon in the ultra-luxury segment. “Q1 of this year produced four eight-figure sales in our market where Q1 of 2023 produced zero,” Spears notes, highlighting a significant uptick in high-end transactions.

This surge comes at a time when many real estate markets across the country are still adjusting to higher interest rates and economic uncertainty. But according to Spears, the ultra-wealthy buyers in his market are motivated by different factors than the average homebuyer.

“It’s really flight to quality,” Spears explains. “When you have an oversupply market of inventory, it may not be quality inventory. Finding Grade A locations, and maybe some of these generational properties that traded in 2020 or 2021, those owners aren’t necessarily looking to resell them.”

This scarcity of premium properties is driving unprecedented prices. “Last summer, there was a sale approaching $30 million. This summer, we’ve got a closing that’s breaking my own personal record for the highest lot sale on 30A. Basically, these sliver sites that are 50 feet wide by 100 feet deep are now trading for $15.5 million just for the dirt,” Spears reveals.

The Changing Buyer Profile

The 30A corridor has traditionally been a second-home market, drawing wealthy buyers from major Southeastern cities like Nashville, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Birmingham, and Atlanta. However, Spears has noticed a significant shift in buyer motivations post-COVID.

“Prior to COVID, short-term rental was probably the Mecca,” he says. “As VRBO developed into a mega industry, we started to see the quality of life decline in certain parts of our market.”

Now, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. “Post-COVID, we’ve had such high demand for non-rental segments, for high-quality, lower-density locations. The market has shifted both in terms of what it rewards and also in terms of what is developing towards that second-home buyer.”

Today’s ultra-luxury buyers are typically driven by one of two factors: a liquidity event or a quality-of-life decision. “Usually those transacting in our market are people who just sold a big business, or they’ve got eight grandkids with their ninth on the way, and they want to find the space for their whole family to enjoy a great time at the beach,” Spears says.

Navigating Higher Costs

Despite the strength in the ultra-luxury segment, Spears acknowledges that higher carrying costs, from interest rates to insurance premiums, have reduced overall transaction volume. “The cost to carry is high, and you’re looking for a very specific buyer profile who’s capable of doing that,” he notes.

However, there are signs of improvement on the insurance front. “We’ve had more carriers open up this year in Q1 of 2024 than we’ve had in years past,” Spears says. “Carriers that haven’t been interested in the market in a while, or that have reached their aggregate and moved out of the market, we’ve seen some loosening.”

For buyers concerned about higher interest rates, Spears emphasizes the importance of finding value. “The biggest thing I’ve seen with interest rates is that you’ve got to find a concession for the buyer, and the concession is value. If you can find that value point, you find the leverage to get somebody across the finish line to pay a higher interest rate.”

Opportunities in New Construction

Despite economic headwinds, new construction remains active in the 30A corridor. “We are still experiencing significant new construction inventory, and I think those sellers are actually the most motivated because they’ve got short-term debt,” Spears explains.

This creates opportunities for buyers willing to negotiate. “Everything is suggested pricing,” Spears emphasizes. “If you’re a buyer and you’re not making offers, you’re not going to get the deal. The deals are made by making an offer that you think is offensive, you’re really not offending anybody. You’re figuring out who is a real seller in this market.”

The Rise of New Urbanism

One of the distinguishing features of the 30A corridor is its embrace of New Urbanism, a planning and development approach that emphasizes walkable neighborhoods, diverse housing and job types, and accessible public spaces.

“Seaside, Florida is really the epicenter of 30A and became a case study for New Urbanism,” Spears explains. “With thoughtful urban design from DPZ, a Miami-based firm, we’ve seen these amazing towns develop along our coastline, and that’s where our luxury market revolves around, these beautiful New Urbanism communities.”

This architectural and planning philosophy has helped create distinctive communities that appeal to wealthy buyers seeking a sense of place and community, not just a luxury home.

Adapting to Market Realities

For real estate professionals navigating today’s challenging market, Spears offers clear advice: go where the transactions are happening.

“If you’re gravitating towards an area of the market that’s only seeing one or two sales per year, you may be in the wrong room,” he cautions. “Many agents coming through this whirlwind of success may be overestimating their capabilities or skill set, and they’re struggling at the moment. Instead of struggling, they can take the same skill set and focus on a segment of the market that’s actually moving.”

This adaptability extends to embracing new technologies, particularly artificial intelligence. “As different tools come online, especially tools fueled by AI, many agents get concerned because they’re afraid that AI will take their job,” Spears observes.

His advice? “If you’re an agent, you need to be curious about AI because your curiosity will directly reflect how productive you are once AI tools enter the market. Your ability to adopt them sooner than your competition is the ability to serve your client at the highest level.”

A Career Built on Problem-Solving

Spears’ approach to the market was shaped by his early experiences in real estate. Licensed at 18 years old in 2010, he entered the profession during the Great Recession, compounded by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill that devastated Gulf Coast tourism.

“It created the right conditions in an environment that you could have never simulated any other way to learn how to solve very difficult problems,” Spears reflects. “I had to get blue ink wet signatures on very detailed contracts. ChatGPT did not exist to summarize. There was no AI. It wasn’t even DocuSign. It was really an amazing way to start a career.”

By 22, he had sold $117 million in real estate, becoming the youngest number one agent in his market. He founded Spears Group in 2017 when he learned he was going to become a father.

“I knew that I wanted to be an amazing dad. I wanted to be present. And I couldn’t just throw time at things,” he explains. “I had to figure out how to effectively delegate and find the right collaborators to come alongside me.”

This focus on relationships, both with team members and clients, remains central to his approach. “Beyond the sales margins is all of the customer relationships we’ve been able to build, all the families we get to help. Relationships are the core of what we do.”