Central New Jersey’s housing market is no longer moving in one direction. It is splitting by geography, and the dividing line is distance from New York City. A home search that crosses county lines can mean stepping from a bidding war into a market where sellers are cutting prices – sometimes within a 20-mile drive.
Christina Duncan, team leader of the Diamond Key Team at eXp Realty in Somerville, New Jersey, covers transactions across Somerset, Middlesex, and Hunterdon counties. That three-county footprint spans roughly 40 miles east to west. Duncan says the two ends of that stretch feel like entirely different markets right now.
The pattern is straightforward. “The closer you are in New York City, the hotter the market is,” Duncan says. Move east into Middlesex County, where train commutes to Manhattan are shorter, and homes still sell briskly. Duncan says listings there move in under 30 days, including townhouses, which are struggling elsewhere.
Head west into Hunterdon County, where commutes stretch longer, and the pace drops. Duncan reports higher days on market there, with listings regularly hitting 30 days. That may not sound alarming in most of the country, but in a region that was seeing multiple offers within a week not long ago, it marks a measurable cooldown.
Somerset County, where Duncan’s office sits, falls in between – still broadly a seller’s market, but softening in certain segments, particularly townhouses. The result is a gradient, not a binary. Buyers who search by county rather than by commute time may not realize how much conditions vary within a single region.
Buyers risk overpaying in a softening pocket while assuming the whole region is still uniformly competitive. A buyer who loses a bidding war in Middlesex County might look 20 miles west and find more inventory and less competition – but also a market where prices are flattening and sellers are starting to reduce. That could be an opportunity or a trap, depending on timeline and goals.
For sellers, the risk runs the other direction. Listing a home in Hunterdon County and pricing it based on what a comparable property fetched in Middlesex County is a recipe for sitting on the market. Duncan says price reductions are becoming more common even in single-family homes – a segment that held firm longer than others. “We’re definitely going back to staging, actually having to prep a home for sale,” she says. The days of listing a home in poor condition and expecting a bidding war are over in most of the region.
Central New Jersey’s economy is not entirely dependent on New York – Duncan points to Princeton, Morristown, and Edison as significant employment centers. But with mortgage rates past 7% following the Fed’s rate increase, the premium buyers place on shorter commutes has intensified. Higher borrowing costs sharpen every tradeoff, and distance from a transit hub is one of the first things to get repriced.
Duncan says the townhouse segment faces a distinct set of problems beyond the geographic gradient. New national rules requiring full reviews on townhouse financing, implemented in August, have made some townhouses ineligible for mortgage approval. At the same time, association fees have increased sharply – Duncan says “almost every association has had to dramatically increase their association fees.” The math has shifted: in many cases, buying a single-family home is now more affordable than buying a townhouse once monthly fees are factored in. Buyers who would have started with a townhouse are moving toward single-family homes instead, adding demand pressure in one segment while inventory piles up in the other.
The September rate increase adds another variable. Duncan says she received a wave of calls from nervous clients after the announcement and expects the fall market to feel the impact quickly. Eastern towns with strong transit connections may absorb the rate shock better because demand there is partly driven by New York-based employers and relocation activity. Western towns without that demand floor are more exposed.
Duncan says her team now walks clients through the geographic gradient early in the search process, before they start touring homes. For buyers relocating from out of state, the distinction is especially easy to miss – online listings rarely convey how much a 20-mile shift in location changes the competitive dynamics. In Middlesex County, multiple-offer situations still happen regularly. In parts of Hunterdon County, buyers are finding room to negotiate on price and inspection terms for the first time in years.
Sellers weighing whether to list now or wait face a different calculation depending on where they sit along that gradient. Duncan’s advice is direct: “If you’re looking to sell in this market, sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t wait because I think that change is already happening.”
About the Expert: Christina Duncan leads the Diamond Key Team at eXp Realty in Somerville, New Jersey, covering Somerset, Hunterdon, and Middlesex counties since 2000.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
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