Demand in northern New Jersey does not soften evenly. It softens at the edges first, according to Julia Gaffney, team lead of Elevate Real Estate Group at Keller Williams Prosperity Realty. Counties closest to New York City remain fiercely competitive, but further out, in Sussex and western Passaic County, inventory is climbing, open houses are drawing fewer visitors, and price reductions have become more common. For buyers drifting west to find something affordable, the lower prices they are counting on may be arriving alongside signs that seller leverage is already slipping.
Gaffney covers Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Morris, and Sussex counties. She describes the regional demand pattern in direct terms: buyers who cannot afford Bergen County move to Morris, and when Morris tightens, they push into Passaic and Sussex. She calls the movement “like a wave,” one that carries pricing pressure outward from New York City but also carries cooling signals back inward when conditions shift.
Gaffney says the shift started roughly six months before the interview. In Sussex County, days on market have stretched, open houses are poorly attended, and price reductions have become routine. “Anything that is going to change, it’s going to change in Sussex County first,” she says, and then ripple back toward the metro core.
For buyers who moved their search westward to escape bidding wars, the relative calm in Sussex County may reflect softening demand rather than hidden value.
The cooling is not confined to Sussex. Gaffney says she is seeing the same early indicators, modest inventory increases and occasional price reductions, in Passaic County and parts of Morris County. These markets were fiercely competitive just a year ago. They are still not buyer-friendly by most standards, but the direction is shifting.
Meanwhile, the counties closest to New York City remain locked tight. Bergen, Hudson, and Union counties continue to see homes move quickly when priced correctly. Gaffney notes that “the inventory has not recovered in Bergen County since the pandemic,” a drought stretching about six years. In her own town of West Milford, active listings sat at 103 at the time of the interview, down from 220 when she entered the business 14 years ago, and as low as 36 during the pandemic.
The gap between inner and outer counties creates a trap for buyers who assume North Jersey is one market. A buyer bidding in Montclair faces entirely different conditions than one bidding 40 minutes west in Sussex County, even though both fall within the same metro orbit.
If inventory continues to climb in the outer counties, the softening could benefit buyers, but Gaffney warns against treating price reductions as automatic bargains. She advises sellers in areas with rising inventory to price at the lower end of the comparable range rather than the middle or top, because the competitive landscape has changed. Buyers should read that same signal: a reduced listing may still be priced above what the market will support in six months if inventory keeps rising.
For buyers relocating from out of state, the adjustment goes beyond home prices. Gaffney notes that “the sticker price on homes really does shock people from outside of New Jersey.” Property taxes compound that shock: in northern New Jersey, annual tax bills commonly run above $11,000, according to Gaffney, a figure that can reshape a monthly budget compared to what buyers pay in many other states.
Gaffney stresses that even county-level generalizations can mislead. She presents sellers with a pricing range based on comparables specific to their town, sometimes a $15,000 to $20,000 swing, sometimes $50,000, because each town has its own competitive dynamics. One town may still draw multiple offers while a neighboring town sees listings linger.
For a buyer weighing a move to Sussex or Passaic County, the most useful question is not what North Jersey prices are doing overall, but what listings in a specific town are doing this month compared to six months ago. Gaffney says she tracks active inventory, days on market, and price reductions at the town level to catch shifts before they show up in broader county data.
The market is returning to more seasonal, cyclical patterns after six years of pandemic-driven unpredictability, Gaffney says. She tells sellers that January listings consistently outperform because inventory is low and motivated buyers are active. For sellers in the outer counties who are watching their leverage shrink, that timing calculation matters more now than it did a year ago.
About the Expert: Julia Gaffney is founder and team lead of Elevate Real Estate Group at Keller Williams Prosperity Realty, covering North Jersey.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
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