Not a Seller's Market, Not a Buyer's Market: Where Twin Cities Housing Stands in 2026

Written by:

Alejandra Rodriguez

Date:

05 Jun 2026

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After years of intense seller advantage, the Twin Cities housing market has settled into a more balanced state, not a full buyer’s market, but no longer the frantic bidding environment of 2021 and 2022. With mortgage rates holding in the mid-to-upper 6% range and inventory slowly climbing, the dynamics between buyers and sellers are being renegotiated in real time.

Brian Durham, managing broker and team owner at WeGo Real Estate in the Twin Cities, has been closely tracking these changes. With 13 years in real estate and nearly a decade in banking before that, he offers a grounded read on what’s driving behavior on both sides of the transaction.

What’s Happening on the Ground

The market is still active, but speed and competition vary sharply by property type and price point. Starter homes and more affordable listings are still selling quickly: Durham recently sold a home in about 10 days over a holiday weekend. “If you’re in that more starter, affordable home price, those are flying off the shelf as fast as you can put them on,” he says.

The condo market in Minneapolis and St. Paul tells a different story. Durham points to a significant inventory buildup in those areas, with more price reductions than in any other metro area. Condo buyers today likely have more negotiating room than they did a year ago.

The average home price across the Twin Cities sits around $385,000, though that number swings widely by suburb. Some communities won’t get a buyer in the door for under $500,000.

Three Forces Behind the Shift

Mortgage rates are holding firm. Rates remain in the mid-to-upper 6% range, and Durham says a Fed rate increase isn’t off the table given recent inflation and employment data. That’s keeping many would-be sellers locked in place, homeowners with mortgages below 4% are unwilling to trade up to a higher payment, even for a smaller home. “Even if they downsize into a smaller, less expensive home, it can actually cost them more per month,” Durham explains.

Inventory is rising, but not fast enough. New listings have increased, but the Twin Cities remain well short of the housing supply it needs, especially at affordable price points. Much of the new construction is priced above what most buyers can comfortably afford. Some cities, like Lakeville, have paused new development for a year while the state sorts out new zoning rules.

Buyers are adjusting expectations. First-time buyers in particular are accepting that sub-4% mortgage rates aren’t returning. “I think they’re over the idea that interest rates are going to drop back to 3% or 4%, that’s just not realistic,” Durham says. That mental recalibration is pushing more of them off the sidelines.

How Fast Are Homes Selling?

Speed depends heavily on price point. Well-priced starter homes still draw quick offers and, in some cases, multiple bids within the first weekend. Higher-end and condo listings sit on the market longer, giving buyers more time to negotiate and ask for concessions.

Durham notes that sellers are more open to negotiation than they were two years ago, but only when the home is priced correctly from the start. Overpriced listings tend to stall, then require price cuts that could have been avoided with better initial positioning.

What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors

For buyers, not every listing is a bidding war. At higher price points and in the condo market, there is real room to negotiate, whether that means closing cost help or inspection credits. Durham’s advice for those waiting on a significant rate drop: if the monthly payment is comfortable now, get in. Waiting for lower rates risks competing against a wave of new buyers when rates eventually fall, likely at higher home prices.

For sellers, pricing correctly from the start is the single most important decision. Durham is direct about this, setting the right price based on recent nearby sales prevents reductions later and keeps buyer interest high. Sellers who price realistically and remain open to minor concessions are still closing strong deals. Those who don’t are watching their listings sit.

For small investors, long-term rentals still pencil out in the Twin Cities, according to Durham. Demand remains strong, especially with inventory tight. Fix-and-flip opportunities exist but require local connections to find off-market deals; having the right network matters more than having the most capital.

Looking Ahead

The Twin Cities market is not distressed; it’s recalibrating after an unusual stretch of extreme seller advantage. Affordable homes remain competitive, condos and higher-end listings offer buyers breathing room, and sellers who price smartly are still closing. The clearest risk for both sides is misjudging the current moment: buyers who wait too long for perfect conditions, and sellers who price based on yesterday’s comps rather than today’s reality. “If you can afford the payment and you’re comfortable with it, let’s get you into the home,” Durham says.

About the Expert: Brian Durham is the managing broker and team owner at WeGo Real Estate in the Twin Cities, Minnesota, where he focuses on residential sales across the metro’s varied price points and submarkets.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.