Hudson Valley, New York's Housing Market Keeps Climbing – But Local Buyers Are Being Left Behind

Written by:

Alejandra Rodriguez

Date:

01 Jun 2026

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Nearly six years after the pandemic reshaped where Americans choose to live, the Hudson Valley real estate market shows little sign of cooling. Inventory remains thin, prices keep climbing, and buyers from New York City continue arriving in steady numbers. Yet beneath that surface-level strength, a more complex picture is emerging – one in which residents are increasingly priced out of the very communities they grew up in.

Greg Berardi, Broker and Owner of Berardi Realty, has spent three decades working the Ulster, Greene, Orange, and Dutchess County markets. His vantage point – as both a practicing broker and an active investor in multifamily, storage, and mobile home park assets – offers a grounded read on what is actually happening across residential and commercial real estate in the region.

A Market Built on Outside Demand

The Hudson Valley’s proximity to New York City, roughly 90 miles north of Manhattan, made it a natural landing spot when remote work loosened the grip of the five-day office week. What started as a pandemic-era migration has become something more durable.

“It just hasn’t stopped,” Berardi says. “The people keep coming from the city. It’s only picked up.”

That sustained demand, colliding with extremely limited supply, has pushed prices well above what local incomes can support. Berardi estimates that fewer than 50 new construction homes are built annually across the entire county – and suggests the real number may be closer to 25. Well-priced listings routinely attract multiple offers, and sale prices frequently land 10 to 20 percent above asking. When a home sells $50,000, $100,000, or even $200,000 over list price, Berardi sees that not as a success story but as a pricing failure. “You know that isn’t a good sign that the property was actually placed on the market at the correct asking price,” he notes.

More than half of the buyers his team works with are paying cash, and the majority are relocating from outside the area. That demographic is driving both the residential sales market and the rental market upward – but it is also systematically shutting out people who have lived in the Hudson Valley for years.

“Our local people really can’t afford the homes now in the market,” Berardi says. “It’s been very challenging.”

What Today’s Buyers Actually Want

The profile of the typical buyer has shifted in ways that go beyond geography. City transplants arriving with cash and equity tend to want properties that require no immediate work. Turnkey condition – updated kitchens, refinished floors, fresh paint, new bathrooms – is no longer a premium feature. It is an expectation.

“The new market of buyers want the house completely painted, the floor sanded, a new kitchen, a new bathroom, and they’re willing to pay for it,” Berardi explains. This stands in contrast to the older local buyer profile, where a willingness to take on renovation work was often the path to affordability.

That shift has practical implications for sellers preparing to list. Properties that might have sold comfortably a decade ago with deferred maintenance now sit longer unless the cosmetics are addressed.

The Learning Curve for Out-of-Area Buyers

Even well-funded buyers face obstacles when entering a competitive, inventory-constrained market for the first time. Many arrive without experience in multiple-offer situations and without familiarity with rural property systems such as wells, septic systems, and older structural conditions.

The result is a two-stage learning process. First, buyers have to calibrate their offer strategy. Berardi says new buyers typically lose out on three, four, or five homes before winning a multiple-offer situation. Those who come in at or below the asking price in a market where over-asking is standard tend to lose repeatedly before adjusting.

The second stage plays out at the inspection. Buyers accustomed to apartment living often encounter their first detailed home inspection report – sometimes 40 or 50 pages long – and react to items that experienced homeowners would consider routine, such as hairline foundation cracks from normal settling, an aging but functional roof with a few years of life remaining, or the presence of a septic system they’ve simply never encountered before. In some cases, a buyer will walk away from two or three transactions before developing enough comfort to move forward. “Sometimes we lose them on relevant concerns, and sometimes on irrelevant concerns, just because they’re not too knowledgeable of what’s going on,” Berardi says.

Where the Commercial Market Stands

While residential demand has remained strong throughout rate increases, the commercial side has responded more directly to borrowing costs. When interest rates on commercial loans sat near 4%, investment activity was strong. When those rates climbed toward 8% between late 2023 and 2024, transaction volume dropped sharply. “Whenever the rates almost double, that’s a shock to the market, and it takes years for that to set in,” Berardi notes.

The adjustment period appears to be winding down. Commercial deals are moving again, though not at the pace seen during the low-rate window. Multifamily assets – two-, three-, and four-family residential buildings – are the most active. Mixed-use storefronts and office space are lagging, with notable vacancy across both categories.

For investors underwriting deals today, Berardi emphasizes understanding the gap between current rents and market-rate potential. A unit renting at $1,300 per month in a market where comparable units fetch $1,700 represents the kind of value-add opportunity that makes a deal work – provided the investor has realistic expectations about the timeline. He is direct about a common misconception among newer investors: the idea that a small portfolio of rental properties will generate meaningful income in the short term. “It’s just a long-term play,” he says. “In 20 years, you’re going to own the property, and that’s where the real return comes.”

Pockets of Change Within the Market

Affordability pressure in established neighborhoods is pushing demand into areas that were previously overlooked. Kingston, one of the more active urban centers in Ulster County, offers a useful illustration. Historically, the city’s activity centered on Uptown Kingston, a historic district, and the waterfront area downtown. The stretch between them – Midtown Kingston – spent most of the past few decades as a depressed corridor.

That has changed. As prices in the more established neighborhoods climbed, younger buyers found Midtown to be the most accessible entry point. “Midtown Kingston has actually become one of the most desirable areas for young people to buy,” Berardi says. Renovation activity followed, and the area has gradually gained momentum. It is a pattern worth watching in other secondary corridors across the region.

The Rate Question and What Comes Next

Looking ahead, Berardi identifies interest rates as the variable he is watching most closely – not because they are dampening cash-heavy city buyers, but because of what sustained high rates mean for the local population.

“Our local people, they’re struggling,” he says. “If the rates don’t come down, they can’t refinance their homes, they can’t pay their debt.”

The tension is real. The same forces that have made the Hudson Valley a more prosperous and visible market have also made it less accessible to the people who built it. Rising home values and rental rates benefit owners and investors. For renters and would-be first-time buyers without outside capital, the math has become increasingly difficult.

How that tension resolves – whether through new construction, rate relief, or some other change in the supply-demand balance – will likely define the next chapter of the Hudson Valley market more than any single economic indicator.

About the Expert: Greg Berardi is Broker and Owner of Berardi Realty, with three decades of experience across the Ulster, Greene, Orange, and Dutchess County markets in the Hudson Valley.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.