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Houston's Market May Stay Slow for Years. That Changes the Buyer Playbook.

Date:
15 Sep 2026
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Harris County, Texas, has roughly six months of housing inventory on the ground, and according to one 23-year Houston-area veteran, the slowdown feeding that surplus is not a brief dip. Sandra Marconi, a real estate agent and MAPS coach with Keller Williams in Houston, said the current environment could last far longer than most buyers expect. Citing Keller Williams leadership, she put it bluntly: “We’re in this market for another year, if not five years.” That range suggests a prolonged stretch where Houston-area buyers have negotiating leverage – but only if their personal finances are in order to use it.

A Buyer’s Market That Not Every Buyer Can Access

Lower-priced homes in Harris County are moving faster than higher-priced ones, and first-time buyers and move-up buyers are the most active segments, according to Marconi. On paper, those conditions favor purchasers: more choices, more time to negotiate, and sellers who are increasingly willing to make concessions.

But Marconi has heard from other agents about a frustrating counterpoint: deals falling apart because buyers cannot get qualified. The opportunity is there, but a portion of would-be buyers cannot reach it.

The barrier, in her view, is debt. She pointed to student loans and high credit card balances as the factors keeping buyers out of the market. Late payments compound the problem by dragging credit scores below lender thresholds.

This pattern hits harder in a market where buyer leverage could stretch for years. A buyer who spends the coming months paying down balances and cleaning up credit may still find favorable conditions afterward. A buyer who rushes in unprepared risks a denied application or unfavorable loan terms.

Why Rates Are Not the Real Barrier

Marconi pushed back on the idea that mortgage rates in the six-to-seven percent range are unusually punishing. She described today’s rates as the industry average and recalled her own first home purchase in 1983, when her rate was 17.75 percent. Buyers holding out for a return to three- and four-percent rates, she said, are waiting for something that will not happen.

“A 6%, 7% interest rate, that’s industry average,” Marconi said. The financially prepared buyers she works with have accepted this and are treating real estate as a long-term investment rather than timing purchases to a rate cycle.

That framing shifts the conversation from what the market owes buyers to what buyers bring to the market. If rates are not returning to pandemic-era levels and inventory is likely to stay elevated for years, the variable a buyer actually controls is personal financial readiness.

The Experience Gap Among Agents

Marconi flagged one additional factor for buyers navigating a slow market: agent quality varies sharply right now. “Those that have experience are the ones who are excelling,” she said. Agents who entered the industry during the pandemic boom, when homes sold with minimal effort, are struggling to guide clients through a market that demands pricing expertise, negotiation skills, and realistic timelines.

She expects more agents to leave the profession if conditions stay soft. In a market with six months of inventory and years of potential slowdown ahead, an agent’s ability to price a home accurately and set realistic expectations determines whether a deal closes or stalls.

Marconi illustrated this with a recent listing that closed at full asking price because her team priced it precisely at comparable-sale value rather than above it. By contrast, she described a seller who wanted to list at $725,000 when comparable sales supported $675,000 to $680,000. Marconi declined the listing. The seller listed with another agent at $700,000, sat on the market for nearly a month, and then made a $5,000 reduction – which Marconi said would do nothing to attract serious offers. A much larger reduction was needed.

She also noted that some pandemic-era buyers are now upside down – owing more than their homes are worth because they purchased during bidding wars with escalation clauses. Those sellers sometimes have to bring cash to the closing table. “That’s unfortunate, but that’s just what happened,” Marconi said.

For buyers entering today’s market with clean finances and realistic expectations, the conditions are favorable in ways they were not three or four years ago. Inventory is plentiful, sellers are negotiating, and the timeline to act is measured in years rather than weeks. The constraint is not the market – it is whether a buyer’s financial position allows them to take advantage of it.

About the Expert: Sandra Marconi is a 23-year real estate veteran who leads the Marconi Team at Keller Williams in Houston and operates short-term rental properties in Galveston, Texas.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.