Few real estate professionals have the vantage point that comes from navigating a market through multiple complete cycles. Janice Mason, a Luxury Real Estate Advisor with Coastal Properties Group and Forbes Global Properties, has been active in Tampa Bay real estate since 1991. Her perspective spans the pre-Internet era, the 2008 housing collapse, the pandemic boom, and today’s more measured market. What she sees on the ground in mid-2026 offers a useful counterpoint to some of the more dramatic narratives circulating in national media, particularly around foreclosures, price crashes, and market instability.
Tampa Bay’s real estate story over the past several years has been one of outsized gains followed by gradual normalization. When national headlines warned of significant price drops, the local context told a different story. Prices had roughly doubled during the pandemic boom, so a 10% correction still left homeowners well ahead of where they started. “A 10% drop was really not as bad as the press was making it out to be,” Mason notes. “We still have people coming here.”
That continued in-migration has been a stabilizing force. Residents relocating from high-tax states, particularly California and various northeastern markets, frequently arrive with substantial equity from prior home sales, often paying cash after selling homes worth two or three times what comparable properties cost in Tampa Bay. This dynamic has kept demand relatively firm even as the market’s pace has slowed from its pandemic-era intensity.
The region’s appeal remains rooted in tangible factors: favorable tax treatment, year-round outdoor living, and a growing commercial and sports infrastructure that has raised the area’s national profile. These continue to attract buyers who have done their homework before arriving.
One segment facing real pressure is the condominium market. Following the 2021 Surfside collapse, Florida implemented new reserve funding requirements for condo associations, and the effects have been felt across Pinellas County and the broader Tampa Bay area. “The condo market has been tough with all the new rules,” Mason says. “It has been flat, a lot flatter than it has been in the past.”
The silver lining for single-family sellers is that some buyers who might have considered condos have shifted their attention to detached homes instead. That reallocation of demand has provided modest support to the residential segment during a period when buyers have otherwise grown more selective.
The one issue Mason identifies as genuinely impactful, and not overstated, is insurance. Flood insurance costs in particular have pushed some buyers and owners away from flood-prone areas, and the broader property insurance market in Florida has been difficult for years. “The insurance has been an issue. It has caused some people to get out of the flood zones,” she acknowledges.
There is cautious optimism around potential property tax relief. Florida legislators have been discussing changes to the homestead exemption, currently set at a $50,000 reduction on assessed value. Mason sees a potential expansion of that exemption as one of the more meaningful near-term developments to watch, noting that even a doubling would provide significant relief for homeowners across the state.
The buyer profile in Tampa Bay has shifted noticeably. First-time homebuyers face real affordability constraints in a market where prices remain significantly elevated from pre-pandemic levels, and cash-heavy out-of-state buyers have raised the competitive bar. But the most notable trend Mason highlights is the growing demand for multi-generational housing.
Buyers are increasingly seeking properties that can accommodate aging parents or adult children, whether through existing in-law suites or land that allows for a secondary structure. “I’m really seeing a lot of demand for this type of setup,” she says, noting that the trend predates the pandemic but has accelerated since. The arrangement provides security, shared childcare, and cost efficiency for extended families.
This is driving interest not just in larger single-family homes but in rural and semi-rural properties, farms, larger parcels, and areas like Odessa that have preserved their lower-density character. Mason, who has built significant expertise in land and farm transactions, is seeing more inquiries in this category as buyers seek space for what she calls the family compound.
Among out-of-state buyers in particular, two property types generate consistent interest. Walkable downtown areas and smaller township centers with retail, dining, and pedestrian infrastructure draw strong attention, and homes in close proximity command meaningful price premiums. Mason observes that even a half-mile difference in distance from a walkable center can significantly affect pricing.
At the same time, waterfront property is recovering. After Hurricanes Helene and Milton prompted some owners to move away from coastal areas, the waterfront market is finding its footing again. “People love the water, and they’re always going to come back to it,” she says.
The negotiating environment has changed considerably from the seller’s market of 2021 and 2022. Sellers who are motivated to close now offer concessions, rate buydowns, and in some cases seller financing, something Mason notes had largely disappeared from the market for years. FHA loans, once routinely passed over in favor of stronger offers, are being accepted again.
“Sellers who want to sell their home, they’re being more creative, and that’s good for the buyers,” she says. Her advice to buyers sitting on the sidelines mirrors what many long-tenured agents counsel: if a home meets your needs and you plan to stay for a decade, the timing concerns are manageable.
The investment market remains active, particularly at lower price points. Mason estimates she receives 15 to 20 texts per week from investors seeking properties under $500,000, with particular urgency around anything under $300,000. The demand for affordable housing is real, and investors recognize it. “Tampa Bay is a market that needs more affordable housing, and those homes definitely under $300,000, that’s huge,” she says.
The competition for these properties is so intense that investors are proactively reaching out to established agents, hoping to gain early access to off-market or pre-listing opportunities.
One persistent narrative Mason pushes back on is the expectation of widespread foreclosures. Despite economic pressures and rising carrying costs, the distressed inventory that some analysts predicted has not materialized in meaningful numbers. “There might be a few here and there, but they’re not really coming as the media made it out to be,” she says.
That gap between media narrative and ground-level reality reflects the value of a local, long-term perspective in a market that national coverage tends to flatten into simple trend lines. For a market as dynamic and occasionally volatile as Tampa Bay, that kind of seasoned judgment, built over decades of navigating cycles, may be exactly what buyers and sellers need to separate signal from noise in the months ahead.
About the Expert: Janice Mason is a Luxury Real Estate Advisor with Coastal Properties Group and Forbes Global Properties, active in Tampa Bay real estate since 1991. She has built expertise in land, farm, and multi-generational property transactions in addition to residential sales.
This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.
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