Rochester Home Sales Cool as Buyers Wait Out the Uncertainty

Written by:

Alejandra Rodriguez

Date:

06 Aug 2026

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A data point from early 2026 caught attention in the Rochester, New York, market: property values dropped roughly 2 percent between February and May. In a region where prices have climbed steadily for six years, even a modest dip raises a natural question: is the correction finally here?

According to Mark Siwiec, Broker/Owner & CEO of Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec and Associates in Rochester, the answer is probably no, but the uncertainty itself is shaping buyer behavior in ways that could matter for months to come.

Siwiec has been tracking the discrepancy between two data sources. Zillow shows Rochester property values up 7.3 percent over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Realtor.com reported a 2 percent decline during the spring window specifically. Siwiec notes both can be true simultaneously; annual appreciation can coexist with a seasonal dip, but the cause of the dip determines what comes next.

A Delayed Spring

Siwiec’s read is that Rochester’s severe winter and difficult spring delayed the seasonal buying surge that typically begins in February. “My gut tells me that that was just an anomaly and that the spring market here in Rochester didn’t begin in February as it normally does”, he says. Instead, he believes seasonal activity kicked in closer to May.

If that interpretation is correct, the 2 percent decline reflects compressed timing, fewer transactions during the measurement window, rather than genuine downward pressure on values. The spring market didn’t disappear; it shifted later on the calendar.

But Siwiec is transparent about the alternative. The question he frames is whether the spring market was simply delayed or whether the dip marks the start of a longer trend. He leans toward the former but acknowledges the data alone doesn’t settle it yet.

Buyer Psychology is the Wilder Variable

Regardless of what caused the dip, its effect on buyer behavior compounds with broader macro anxiety. Siwiec observes that buyers who were searching aggressively are now stepping away. The reasons extend beyond local conditions; mortgage rate concerns, inflation fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence are all contributing.

This creates a feedback loop. Buyers pull back, which reduces competition, which softens prices at the margin, which further discourages buyers who interpret softening as confirmation that waiting is the right call.

Siwiec is candid about the uncertainty ahead. “I’m not quite sure when it is that buyers are going to return to the market in the numbers that they were,” he says. His broader economic outlook is cautious: “My gut tells me that this coming year might be a difficult one for the U.S. economy.”

What This Means for Rochester

For sellers, the practical implication is that pricing needs to account for reduced buyer urgency. Siwiec describes a market now split into two groups: sellers who still believe it is 2023 and refuse to prepare their homes for market, and sellers who price appropriately, stage their homes, and list in strong neighborhoods. The second group is still selling with multiple offers above asking price. The first group is sitting.

Siwiec illustrates the shift with a recent example: a property listed last week at a given price didn’t sell, unusual in a market where most homes move within seven to ten days. After a $25,000 price reduction, the home drew an offer within six hours. Price reductions are becoming more frequent than they were even a few months ago.

For buyers, the tension is harder to resolve. Rochester’s fundamentals remain tight; inventory is still roughly half of what it was in 2017, with about 850 single-family homes on the market compared to close to 1,750 in 2017. The region remains short an estimated 18,000 housing units since the Great Recession. If the 2 percent dip truly was seasonal noise, prices are likely to resume their upward path once buyer participation normalizes.

But normalization depends on macro conditions no local market can control. If consumer confidence remains low and rates stay elevated, the pause could extend well beyond one unusual spring. Rochester’s structural shortage supports prices over the long term, but short-term buyer reluctance can still create periods of softness, and Siwiec does not claim to know how long this one lasts.

About the Expert: Mark Siwiec is Broker/Owner and CEO of Elysian Homes, serving the Rochester, New York market and surrounding six-county region.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.