Buyers evaluate a home based on what exists right now – the school down the road, the fire station response time, the condition of the nearest interchange. But in fast-growing small counties, what the local government is building today may matter more to long-term property values than anything visible on a drive-through. In New Kent County, Virginia, the county administrator argues that infrastructure spending operates on a 10-to-15-year lag – and most buyers are not accounting for that.
New Kent County, a community of roughly 30,000 between Richmond and Williamsburg, has grown 21.5% since the 2020 census – the highest growth rate in the Commonwealth of Virginia, according to Rodney Hathaway, the county administrator for the past 14 years. Hathaway draws a direct line between old spending and current results. The water, sewer, and natural gas systems the county invested in over a decade ago made it possible for AutoZone, Amazon, FedEx, and Target to build distribution centers there. “Those investments are starting to pay off now,” Hathaway says.
That timeline matters for anyone buying a home in New Kent today. The infrastructure a buyer is actually betting on is not the infrastructure already built. It is the infrastructure the county is funding right now – and whether it will be adequate for the community the county becomes in the 2030s.
The current capital budget is substantial for a county this size. This year’s budget includes a new courthouse facility, a new elementary school, a new fire station, and the design phase of a YMCA. The county completed another fire station and a new animal shelter in recent years. A $104 million rebuild of the Exit 211 interchange on Interstate 64 is expected to start in spring and finish by the end of 2029.
Hathaway does not minimize the pressure this creates. Growth has driven demand across fire and rescue, law enforcement, schools, and social services. “We’ve been keeping up with it, but it definitely has been a challenge,” he says. Every one of those projects represents a bet that future growth will generate enough tax revenue to justify the spending.
New Kent has maintained one of the lowest property tax rates in the broader Richmond, Peninsula, and Middle Peninsula regions – around third lowest, according to Hathaway. But the county has never carried this many capital projects simultaneously while growing this fast. If revenue growth slows – because of trade disruptions at the Hampton Roads ports, a softening economy, or simply fewer new rooftops than projected – maintaining that low tax rate gets harder.
A new courthouse, a new school, and a new fire station do not pay for themselves. They are funded by a growing tax base. A buyer expecting that low tax rate to persist is implicitly assuming that growth continues at roughly its current pace for years to come.
That assumption is not unreasonable. The county’s location on Interstate 64, three miles from Interstate 295, with expanding port access via Hampton Roads, gives it structural advantages. Much of the current commercial activity is driven by expansions at the Hampton Roads ports, which Hathaway describes as “really becoming a major port facility in the country.” But it is still an assumption, and buyers in small, fast-growing counties rarely think about it this explicitly.
For buyers considering a home in New Kent or a similarly positioned county, the capital improvement plan tells you what the county expects to need, what it is willing to fund, and where it sees growth heading.
In New Kent’s case, zoning updates around data centers offer another signal. The county currently has no data centers and no active data center projects, but it is revising its zoning ordinance to accommodate them. An initial proposal for a technology overlay district – which would have allowed data centers by right within certain boundaries – was replaced with a conditional use permit process after public feedback. Hathaway described the shift as responsive: the county put the proposal out “with the intent of receiving feedback from the citizens. And we’ve received that and we’ve acted on that.”
Hathaway is also tracking external risks. The governor recently directed the state to provide a toolkit for data centers, and the upcoming General Assembly session may shape how that affects counties like New Kent. Tariff policy is another concern. With so much of the county’s commercial base tied to port-driven distribution, trade disruptions could directly affect the tax revenue that funds all of these capital projects.
The county’s own history illustrates the stakes. Infrastructure investments from a decade ago attracted Fortune 500 distribution tenants and reshaped the local economy. The projects being funded today – the courthouse, the school, the $104 million interchange – will either sustain that trajectory or become costly obligations if growth stalls.
About the Expert: Rodney Hathaway has served as County Administrator of New Kent County, Virginia, for 14 years.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
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