Luxury Coastal Real Estate Has Cooled – Unless You're Actually on the Water

Written by:

Alejandra Rodriguez

Date:

26 Jun 2026

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The luxury coastal real estate market rarely tells a simple story, and for brokers operating across multiple geographies, the differences between markets can be just as instructive as the similarities. Jack Zaborowski, Broker Associate at eXp Realty, has spent nearly two decades navigating that complexity, running the Jack and Jill team across North Palm Beach County in South Florida and the barrier island communities of South Jersey. His dual-market perspective offers a grounded view of where coastal luxury stands heading into the second half of 2026.

Two Buyer Profiles

Despite surface similarities – beach access, lifestyle amenities, seasonal appeal – the buyer profiles in South Florida and South Jersey diverge considerably.

South Jersey’s primary draw remains its proximity to major metro areas. Communities like Ocean City, Margate, Avalon, Stone Harbor, and Cape May serve as drivable weekend and summer destinations for Philadelphia- and New York-area residents. Buyers there are typically from the Philadelphia suburbs or North Jersey, purchasing vacation homes that they can reach in 1 to 2.5 hours. “The Southern New Jersey person is buying a vacation home they can get to by car for long weekends,” Zaborowski explains.

South Florida buyers tend to make a more substantial commitment, staying for a month or longer and often putting down permanent roots. Post-pandemic migration, remote work flexibility, and the relocation of financial services firms have brought year-round economic activity to the corridor stretching from Palm Beach Gardens through Jupiter and Juno Beach to Tequesta. Infrastructure investments like the Brightline rail connection between West Palm Beach and Orlando have reinforced the area’s appeal. “I can take the Brightline from West Palm up to Orlando and get a flight wherever I need in the world,” one of Zaborowski’s clients told him. Accessibility – both physical and economic – is increasingly part of the pitch.

What the Market Is Actually Doing

After several years of compressed inventory and aggressive bidding, the North Palm Beach County market has settled into a more measured rhythm. Days on market have increased, and the list-to-sale price ratio has softened. Homes are now selling at roughly 93% of the asking price, compared to the 98–99% or over-asking norms of recent years.

The properties that have been sitting the longest tend to share a common characteristic: they need work. Most buyers want turnkey homes and are willing to pay a premium for them. New and recently renovated inventory moves; dated or deferred-maintenance properties increasingly do not, regardless of location.

The upper end of the market, waterfront homes, golf, and lifestyle community properties, has shown notable resilience. Membership costs alone in some premier communities can rival the purchase price of a modest home elsewhere, yet demand at that level has not softened. “That luxury market does not seem to be weakening at all. It actually just seems to be staying very, very stable,” Zaborowski says.

The Three Questions

For buyers considering a move from the Northeast to South Florida, the conversation tends to follow a predictable pattern. Zaborowski has distilled it to three recurring concerns: insurance, schools, and value.

Insurance tops the list. Media coverage of Florida’s property insurance challenges has created anxiety that Zaborowski says often exceeds the reality on the ground. He acknowledges it remains a legitimate factor but notes that working with knowledgeable vendors can address most concerns.

Schools are the second pressure point, particularly for families with children. Demand for quality education in North Palm Beach County has outpaced supply. “The public schools are overwhelmed, the private schools are saturated,” Zaborowski says, pointing to the infrastructure challenge that accompanies rapid population growth. He cites the example of a prominent Wellington-area figure building a charter school as a sign that the gap is being taken seriously.

The third concern is value, specifically, whether prices in a market that has appreciated 25 to 30 percent or more over the past five years still make sense. One detail that catches many buyers off guard is the property tax reset upon acquisition. In Palm Beach County, annual property taxes run roughly 2% of the purchase price – a surprise for buyers accustomed to New Jersey’s system, where tax assessments transfer with the property.

Where Investors Should Be Looking

For capital seeking deployment in either market, entry point discipline matters more than market timing. Zaborowski applies a principle he has carried throughout his career: “You make your profit when you buy, not when you sell.”

Waterfront remains the most insulated asset class in both geographies. Supply is structurally constrained, demand is durable, and the premium commanded by direct water access has historically held through broader market softness. For investors willing to take on renovation risk, opportunities exist in properties that need work, particularly those where sellers have become more flexible on price, provided the buyer has realistic cost expectations and reliable relationships with contractors.

The lock-in effect, where homeowners with sub-4% mortgages are reluctant to sell into a 6-6.5% rate environment, continues to suppress resale inventory in certain segments. “Interest rates are still hovering around six, six and a half percent, so buying power has definitely decreased,” Zaborowski notes. His view is that rates will remain roughly where they are for the foreseeable future, meaning the market will continue to function around that constraint rather than waiting for relief.

The Outlook From Mid-2026

Neither market appears to be approaching a tipping point in either direction. Demand from the Northeast continues, though it has become more deliberate. Buyers are taking longer to plan moves south, even when the intent is clear, due to family, career, and community ties. The Canadian buyer segment, which had been a meaningful contributor to South Florida’s international demand, has pulled back, a trend Zaborowski attributes to broader cross-border uncertainty, though he expects it to normalize.

Looking ahead, the broader lesson from Zaborowski’s dual-market vantage point is that coastal luxury, while not immune to economic headwinds, continues to attract buyers motivated by something beyond investment returns. Weather, lifestyle, community, and daily quality of life remain powerful draws. In markets built around those qualities, where supply is physically constrained, and demand is driven by lifestyle rather than speculation, the fundamentals tend to hold even when the broader economy sends mixed signals.

About the Expert: Jack Zaborowski is a Broker Associate at eXp Realty, leading the Jack and Jill team across North Palm Beach County in South Florida and barrier island communities in South Jersey, with nearly two decades of experience in coastal luxury real estate.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.