Six years after the pandemic reshaped suburban demand across the Northeast, the markets straddling the New York-New Jersey border offer a useful lens for understanding where residential real estate actually stands. Not the version told through national headlines, but the ground-level reality that agents working these neighborhoods encounter week to week.
Jon Paul Molfetta, Broker Associate and Team Leader at The Molfetta Team (Keller Williams Valley Realty), has worked on both sides of that border for two decades, licensed in New York and New Jersey and operating across Bergen and Rockland Counties. His perspective cuts through some of the noise around whether suburban markets have peaked, softened, or simply normalized.
Demand hasn’t disappeared in this corridor, but it has changed shape. Bergen County remains supply-constrained, and homes are still drawing multiple offers, just fewer than during the pandemic frenzy. “We might not be getting 20 offers, but if you’re still getting five offers on a home, you still have more buyers than you do property,” Molfetta says.
That distinction matters more than it might seem. A drop from 20 offers to five can feel like a cooling market, and some agents are treating it as one, advising buyers to push harder on price and terms. Molfetta pushes back on that instinct. His guidance is straightforward: don’t declare a buyer’s market until there are more properties available than buyers are competing for them.
The fourth quarter of 2024 tested that conviction. Activity slowed, nerves ran high, and then January came back strong. That kind of volatility, he argues, is part of the rhythm now, not a signal of structural change.
One of the more meaningful developments heading into mid-2026 is a gradual loosening of seller reluctance. The lock-in effect, where homeowners holding low-rate mortgages resisted listing, appears to be softening as a different concern takes hold. Sellers are increasingly worried they may have missed peak pricing, even as their homes still attract dozens of showings and multiple offers.
That psychology is nudging some owners off the sidelines. The fear of missing the top is beginning to outweigh the reluctance to give up a favorable rate, at least for a segment of the market. Those who remain tend to be people who want to move rather than need to. As Molfetta puts it, “The things that drive sales are a baby, a job, a divorce. There are always those factors that will keep the market fluid.”
The Bergen-Rockland comparison is more nuanced than a simple price differential. For years, Bergen County commanded a notable premium. That gap has narrowed considerably since the pandemic, particularly on a price-per-square-foot basis. Molfetta builds his own price-per-square-foot charts from tax records for every analysis, even though New Jersey doesn’t use that metric as a standard.
What distinguishes the two markets today is less about price and more about buyer profile and lifestyle priorities. Rockland attracts buyers seeking a specific community orientation, and those buyers typically arrive knowing exactly where they want to be. Bergen, meanwhile, offers certain towns with lower carrying costs relative to entry price, what Molfetta calls “the equalization factor” of taxes. A higher purchase price in some Bergen towns can still make financial sense when property taxes are factored into the monthly cost.
For buyers choosing between the two, the calculus comes down to how much weight they place on upfront capital versus long-term carrying costs, and what kind of community environment they’re seeking.
On the transaction side, the pricing approach continues to determine how quickly and profitably homes sell. Molfetta favors listing below the expected sale price to generate competitive interest, and even with that approach, offers are exceeding projections. “We list a house at 119, and the expectation is for that house to sell at 125. I’m still seeing offers come in above that,” he says.
The Rockland market requires more precision. Overpricing at the outset carries real risk, as it can shrink the buyer pool and force price reductions that signal weakness. “If you break the plane and get away from capturing the larger group of buyers, it can be painful for a seller,” Molfetta explains, “because you could wind up playing catch-up or devalue a home unnecessarily.”
While residential conversations dominate, commercial real estate pressures are quietly shaping broader market conditions in this corridor. Commercial mortgages typically come due every five years, and owners who purchased before rate increases now face a significant gap between their original financing and current rates. Molfetta points to properties that made sense to lenders at four and a half percent but must now refinance at six and a quarter, math that no longer works for many owners.
The downstream effect is a freeze on activity among commercial buyers who would otherwise be recycling capital into new acquisitions. Fewer commercial transactions mean less liquidity circulating through the broader market. It’s a dynamic that doesn’t always surface in residential conversations, but one that shapes overall conditions in ways agents and investors would do well to track.
Beyond market dynamics, Molfetta’s experience building his team over eight years offers practical insight into what sustains a real estate operation through market cycles. His central takeaway is that cultural alignment matters as much as individual drive. “I always thought that money was the motivating factor, but what I’ve come to realize is that culture is equally as important as the drive to be successful,” he says.
That lesson took time. Eight years in, he describes his team as the most cohesive it has been, with roles shaped around individual strengths rather than fixed job descriptions.
For newer agents asking how to build a sustainable book of business, his advice centers on intentional community presence rather than cold calling. He calls it “country club marketing,” finding environments you genuinely enjoy and building relationships there. The specific venue matters less than the authenticity of the connection.
As the Bergen-Rockland market moves through 2026, the picture that emerges is one of resilience rather than boom. Inventory remains tight, buyer demand persists in adjusted form, and sellers who price precisely continue to be rewarded. The commercial refinancing squeeze bears watching as a potential drag on broader liquidity. For buyers, sellers, and agents operating in this corridor, preparation and precision matter more than speculation, and understanding the differences between these two counties remains essential to making sound decisions on either side of the border.
About the Expert: Jon Paul Molfetta is a Broker Associate and Team Leader at Keller Williams Valley Realty, with two decades of experience working across Bergen County, New Jersey, and Rockland County, New York. He is licensed in both states.
This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.
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