Housing in Oakland, Berkeley, and Piedmont, California Splits Along Price Lines as Buyer Confidence Wavers

Written by:

Alejandra Rodriguez

Date:

25 Jun 2026

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The East Bay real estate market in mid-2026 is telling two very different stories depending on price point. At the entry level, job anxiety and affordability pressures are keeping cautious buyers on the sidelines. At the upper end, wealth generated by the AI boom and a rising stock market is pushing demand well past recent comparable sales. Navigating between those two realities requires more than market data; it requires knowing the neighborhoods, the product, and the moment.

Claudia Mills, founder and lead agent of the Claudia Mills Real Estate Team at Keller Williams Luxury, works primarily across Oakland, Piedmont, Rockridge, Berkeley, and parts of Contra Costa County. Her team’s approach centers on design-forward preparation, a model that has become increasingly relevant as buyer expectations have tightened and insurance-related concerns have reshaped what “move-in ready” actually means.

Preparation as a Competitive Strategy

The team’s process begins well before a listing goes live. Working with both spec builders and individual homeowners, the focus is on identifying details that can quietly undermine a showing, mismatched lighting temperatures, dated fixtures, imperfect landscaping, and addressing them before buyers ever walk through the door.

“We go through the disclosures, look at the home, look at the yard, look at the lighting and color scheme, and any little nuance, maybe the sink faucet isn’t looking as fresh as it should,” Mills explains. “All of these things are part of our process.”

On a recent five-bedroom listing in Pleasant Hill, that process included replacing an aging roof, a decision driven by the current insurance environment. Older roofs can trigger coverage issues that make buyers walk away, so addressing the problem upfront removed a potential deal-breaker before it surfaced during negotiations.

Marketing follows the same attention to detail. The team has been producing narrated listing videos for 15 years, not slideshows, but scripted productions with on-screen talent designed to communicate lifestyle. For the Pleasant Hill property, that meant hiring a teenager to jump into the swimming pool on camera. “Nothing shows a swimming pool better than actually having someone jump in and make a big splash,” Mills says.

How much preparation is worth doing depends on conditions at any given moment. In a strong seller’s market, paint and staging may be sufficient. Right now, the bar is higher. Buyers have grown more particular and expect homes that feel ready to inhabit without compromise. Knowing where that line sits comes from experience, not a formula.

A Market Running at Different Speeds

The East Bay market is not moving uniformly. Mills describes it plainly: “It’s one market that acts one way, and then another market that acts a different way. It’s not all the same.”

At the entry level – which in the East Bay means roughly the million-dollar range for first-time buyers – consumer confidence is the primary obstacle. Many younger buyers are watching peers lose jobs to AI-driven workforce changes and are hesitant to take on a mortgage in that climate. “They’re afraid, and that’s holding that market back,” Mills says.

The middle segment is moving, but without much momentum. The upper end is where activity is strongest. Buyers with significant stock portfolios, many connected to the AI industry concentrated in San Francisco, are actively deploying capital into real estate. Sales in this tier are exceeding recent comparable prices, driven partly by an inflation hedge: real estate has historically held value through inflationary periods, and some buyers are positioning accordingly.

San Francisco Spillover

The relationship between San Francisco and the East Bay continues to shape demand patterns, particularly in neighborhoods like Rockridge and Piedmont. Mills estimates a desirable family home in San Francisco now runs around $5 million, which continues to push buyers across the Bay in search of better value. That dynamic has been consistent for roughly 15 years, though the intensity varies with market cycles.

Within the East Bay itself, certain neighborhoods are outperforming. Berkeley’s high-end, walkable areas near restaurants and shops are seeing strong activity. Piedmont is similarly active, particularly for turnkey properties that families can move into without significant work. “If you have a really good product that’s turnkey, that’s on fire,” Mills notes.

On the other side, properties in high fire-risk zones – parts of Montclair, for example – are moving more slowly, largely due to insurance complications. The post-LA wildfire environment has made buyers and their lenders considerably more cautious about fire exposure, and that caution is showing up in transaction pace.

What Investors Should Understand

For investors considering the East Bay, understanding comps is not the same as understanding neighborhoods. Mills sees investors regularly misjudge a submarket’s pricing dynamics because they rely on broad data rather than street-level knowledge. “They make big mistakes,” she says. “They’re sad when their house is not commanding the cost per square foot that they think they deserve.”

The right entry point depends heavily on the investor’s capital, timeline, and risk tolerance, which is why Mills recommends working with an agent who has direct, current experience in the specific submarket being considered rather than relying on aggregate statistics.

What Comes Next

External forces continue to weigh on market momentum. The tariff announcements earlier in 2026 offer a recent example of how quickly policy shifts can stall activity. Mills describes last year’s market as robust before tariffs hit and cooled buyer enthusiasm. “We’re very definitely linked to what’s happening in Washington,” she says.

Looking ahead, Mills is watching two things: whether San Francisco’s AI-driven buyer pool begins to flow more consistently into the East Bay at lower price points, and what federal policy does to consumer sentiment. That unpredictability makes forward projections difficult. What the team can control is preparation, product quality, and client guidance.

On the business side, Mills is exploring an expansion of the team’s design services beyond the transaction itself, offering homeowners who aren’t yet ready to sell the same preparation expertise the team applies to listings. The idea grew from a recurring reaction: clients seeing their prepared home and wishing it had looked that way while they lived in it. Turning that response into a standalone service is the next step the team is developing.

For buyers and sellers navigating the East Bay right now, the core advice is straightforward: find experienced local representation, be realistic about what the market is doing at your specific price point, and don’t let perfect block a good entry. “Maybe it’s not your dream home as your first home,” Mills says, “but get into it, buy it, and then leverage it into the next thing.”

About the Expert: Claudia Mills is founder and lead agent of the Claudia Mills Real Estate Team at Keller Williams Luxury, serving Oakland, Piedmont, Rockridge, Berkeley, and parts of Contra Costa County in the East Bay.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.