If you’ve been reading that South Florida’s real estate market is “cooling off,” you’re missing the neighborhood-level detail that actually drives decisions. The reality varies significantly by property type, county, and HOA status – depending on where you’re looking and what you’re buying.
Agents working across Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie counties describe not one market but dozens, all behaving differently at the same time. Kelly McCarthy, a Realtor with eXp Realty who covers all three counties, puts it plainly: “Every zip code is different. If it’s in an HOA, it’s different.” That neighborhood-level variation is what market-wide reports consistently overlook – and it’s what buyers and sellers need to understand before making a move.
In Palm Beach County, non-HOA single-family homes remain in a slight seller’s market. Demand from Northeast transplants and second-home buyers continues to hold prices steady in desirable neighborhoods. Martin County looks similar – quieter, more affordable, and still seeing price appreciation and buyer activity, especially around Stuart.
The condo market tells a different story. Since the 2021 collapse of the Champlain Towers in Surfside, Florida, new state regulations have required condo buildings to fund long-neglected reserves and pass stricter safety inspections. HOA fees have tripled in some buildings, pushing monthly carrying costs beyond what many second-home buyers budgeted for.
“People who had them as a second home down here, where they were affordable, they are no longer affordable,” McCarthy says. A surge in condo listings followed as owners moved to exit before further fee increases, and out-of-state buyers – deterred by coverage of fee increases and structural concerns – have pulled back significantly from the condo segment. Condos are selling at around 82% of list price across the region, compared to roughly 96% for single-family homes in competitive areas.
The performance gap between high-demand submarkets like Jupiter and Boca and slower-moving areas, such as parts of St. Lucie County, is becoming more pronounced. Boca Raton and Jupiter are outperforming almost every other area in Palm Beach County, driven by top-rated school districts, strong demand, and higher-end buyers who aren’t as rate-sensitive. In some Jupiter neighborhoods, days on market are actually shrinking year over year.
Contrast that with newer HOA communities in St. Lucie County, where resale homes are struggling to compete with builders offering brand-new construction at aggressive prices – including fixed mortgage rates as low as 3.99% with additional buydown options. “It’s really hard for a one or two-year-old house to compete with these new construction builders,” McCarthy says. That’s a buyer’s market.
Non-HOA homes in St. Lucie County sit in a more balanced position, and McCarthy says she sees some of the best value in the region there right now.
For single-family buyers in Palm Beach or Martin County, competition remains real on well-priced properties, especially in Boca or Jupiter. Come in pre-approved, know your lifestyle priorities, and don’t assume every neighborhood behaves the same way. A good agent will walk you through data on specific streets, not just cities.
For condo buyers, negotiating power is significant right now. Ask about HOA reserves, recent special assessments, and when the last structural inspection was completed. Condo list-to-sale price ratios have stopped declining in some buildings, suggesting early signs of a price floor, but doing your homework up front protects against buying into a building with expensive repairs still ahead.
For single-family sellers, pricing accurately matters more than ever. Most sellers overestimate the value of their home, especially after the pandemic run-up. “Most sellers think that their property is worth more than it is,” McCarthy says. Anchoring price to recent comparable sales – not 2021 highs – is what gets deals done.
For condo sellers, patience and competitive pricing are essential. Condo list-to-sale price ratios have stopped declining in some buildings, suggesting early signs of a price floor, but a large supply of similar units means condition and price determine outcomes.
Southeast Florida’s market didn’t slow uniformly – individual submarkets diverged sharply by property type and location. Single-family homes in the right neighborhoods are holding strong, condos are working through a real correction driven by post-Surfside regulatory costs, and St. Lucie County’s new construction boom is undercutting resale sellers on both price and financing terms. The months ahead will likely clarify whether condo pricing has found its floor or rising maintenance costs are pushing more owners to sell. For single-family markets, the key variable remains mortgage rates – if rates drop meaningfully, demand from Northeast relocators could intensify competition in already tight submarkets like Jupiter and Boca Raton.
Where you are and what you’re buying determines whether you’re in the driver’s seat or waiting on the sidelines.
About the Expert: Kelly McCarthy is a Realtor with eXp Realty serving Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie counties in Southeast Florida, with a client base weighted toward buyers relocating from the Northeast.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
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