With Inventory Down 3% Year-Over-Year, Buyers in Monmouth County, New Jersey Face a Shrinking Pool of Homes

Written by:

Alejandra Rodriguez

Date:

17 Jul 2026

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National housing data suggests a cooling market, but Monmouth County, New Jersey contradicts that narrative. Inventory sits at 2.7 months of supply – roughly half the five-to-six-month threshold that would indicate balance – and prices continue to climb despite mortgage rates near 6.5%, according to Anastasia Cafiero, a Realtor with Realty ONE Group Central who has worked the county’s central towns for over a decade. The county is down 3% in inventory compared to the same period last year, yet demand has not softened in proportion.

Cafiero attributes the persistent tightness to a straightforward dynamic. “Not a lot of people are willing to go from a 2% mortgage to a 6 and a half percent mortgage,” she says. “Unless you have to sell, not a lot of people are willing to sell right now.”

The Rate Lock Keeps Supply Pinned

A large share of current homeowners locked in rates between 2% and 3% during the pandemic-era buying wave. Some secured rates below 2%. Moving to a new home at today’s rates would, in Cafiero’s words, “quadruple your monthly payment.” Only those who must sell – due to divorce, job relocation, or family changes – are listing.

Baby boomers represent roughly 40% of sellers in the area, according to Cafiero. Many have paid-off homes and can downsize for cash, sidestepping the rate issue entirely. But for move-up buyers still carrying a low-rate mortgage, the math does not work unless circumstances force the decision. The result is a market where supply stays pinned regardless of buyer demand, and sellers who do list enter a competition-heavy environment that favors them.

Condition and Pricing Still Determine Speed

Even in a supply-constrained environment, overpriced homes sit. Cafiero draws a clear line: “If the house is in good condition in a good area and it’s priced fairly, it will still attract strong interest and would still move quickly and probably higher than it was listed.”

A recent transaction illustrates the dynamic. A three-bedroom, two-bath ranch in Marlboro, positioned at the end of a cul-de-sac, bordering Matawan but districted to Marlboro schools, with a walking trail behind it, listed at $750,000. Within two days and one open house, over 100 families walked through. It sold for $900,000, $150,000 over asking.

The property had several factors working in its favor: school district, location on the commuter corridor, and a desirable lot position. But the underlying condition of the market, far more buyers than available homes, is what made that outcome possible. For sellers considering listing, the implication is direct: homes that are fairly priced and in good condition still command multiple competing offers, while overpriced listings lose that advantage even in a seller’s market.

What Draws Buyers to Central Monmouth County

The county’s appeal rests on a commute calculation. Cafiero estimates 50 to 60% of residents commute to New York City. Express bus service from Old Bridge runs directly to Port Authority with no intermediate stops. Buyers can maintain a New York salary while purchasing homes at a fraction of what five-borough real estate would cost.

The school system adds a second draw. The Freehold Regional High School District combines five towns into a single district, allowing students to choose among several high schools rather than being assigned by address. “You usually are designated to a certain school district, and that’s it,” Cafiero notes. This flexibility matters to families weighing where to buy.

The strongest-performing towns – Freehold, Marlboro, Manalapan, Colts Neck, and Holmdel – share these characteristics: strong schools, proximity to transit, and enough space to justify the move from an urban apartment. COVID accelerated the pattern, as remote and hybrid workers needed home offices and more square footage, but the commuter math that underpins demand predates the pandemic and continues to hold.

A New Demand Catalyst

A Netflix headquarters currently under construction in Oceanport is drawing investor attention. Cafiero sees the development, which includes planned retail and entertainment infrastructure around it, as a near-term catalyst for the surrounding area.

“If somebody has the money, this is where I would invest,” she says. “Buy anything that’s broken down, as-is, not habitable – just buy it. If you don’t want to do anything with it, just hold it.” She acknowledges the optimal entry point may have been a year to eighteen months ago but says the window remains open since construction is still underway and nothing is finalized.

For buyers rather than investors, the Netflix development signals a different consideration: areas near Oceanport may see faster price appreciation in the near term, making current pricing the lowest entry point for that specific corridor.

The Down Payment Misconception

For first-time buyers considering the market, Cafiero points to a persistent misconception: the belief that 20% down is required. New Jersey offers government grants, $15,000 for first-time buyers toward closing costs, with an additional $7,000 available if parents have not owned a home in the last three years. Combined with FHA financing at 3.5% down, buyers can enter the market with as little as $10,000 in savings.

“A lot of people think it’s unachievable because of the lack of information and education,” Cafiero says. The gap between perceived barriers and actual requirements may be keeping qualified buyers on the sidelines longer than necessary, particularly in a market where waiting means competing against rising prices and persistently low inventory.

What Comes Next

Monmouth County’s supply constraint shows no sign of easing on its own. Homeowners locked into sub-3% rates have no financial incentive to list, and no policy mechanism currently in place would change that calculus. Prices will likely continue rising as long as inventory stays near current levels. For buyers, the practical question is not whether the market will cool, current conditions suggest it will not in the near term, but whether to act now with available financing tools or wait for a rate environment that may not arrive before prices move further out of reach.

About the Expert: Anastasia Cafiero is a Realtor with Realty ONE Group Central, with over a decade of experience serving the central towns of Monmouth County, New Jersey.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.