Luxury market activity reveals a sharp divide between ultra-high-net-worth buyers and the broader Manhattan real estate market, according to Justin Neissani, licensed real estate salesperson at The Corcoran Group. While many buyers remain cautious amid political uncertainty and economic volatility, those purchasing properties above $10 million are moving forward with conviction, suggesting a different risk calculation at the top of the market.
Neissani reports that affluent buyers are undeterred by mayoral politics and policy debates that have made headlines and contributed to widespread hesitation among typical buyers. “People with money, specifically in the ultra-luxury market over $10 million, are still buying their apartments,” Neissani says. He sees this continued demand as a sign that the wealthiest buyers expect the city’s long-term fundamentals to remain strong, regardless of short-term uncertainty. “If they have confidence that, in the end, whatever happens with this mayor or his policies may not really matter in the long term,” he adds.
This behavior contrasts with the anxiety observed among average buyers. Neissani argues that the actions of the ultra-wealthy are a more reliable indicator of Manhattan’s accurate risk profile. “If you think they were afraid of New York, they wouldn’t be putting their money into New York,” he explains. “They wouldn’t be buying apartments of $5, $10, $20, $30 million and above if they were terrified that something was going to happen.”
Looking at the market from a long-term perspective, Neissani notes that ultra-wealthy buyers consistently take the historical view. “New York always is up, if you look at it historically, from the early 1900s all the way up to today,” he says. “It always goes up, and it always appreciates, and it always rebounds.” He cites prior periods of political uncertainty, including former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s tenure, as evidence that even contentious administrations have not derailed Manhattan’s core real estate values. “Everyone thought it was going to be the end of the world, but after his term was up, it was business as usual. It didn’t really affect things in the end,” Neissani recalls.
This long-term confidence is not distributed evenly across Manhattan. Neissani highlights the West Village, Tribeca, and Greenwich Village as neighborhoods where luxury demand and pricing power have remained resilient despite broader market disruptions. “If I had $5 to $10 million to invest, I would invest in multi-families in the West Village, Tribeca, Greenwich Village, Chelsea — those areas that always have strong demand,” he says. During the pandemic, these neighborhoods stood out for attracting buyers and renters despite citywide declines. “We saw it in COVID that every neighborhood in Manhattan was affected outside of those areas, because people wanted to live there hand over fist,” he says. In some cases, demand reached the point where “lines of 20, 30, 40 people” waited to secure a spot.
For institutional investors and analysts, Neissani believes the continued activity at the top end of the market offers a critical data point. The ultra-wealthy are generally seen as cautious and strategic, not prone to impulsive decisions. Their willingness to commit significant capital amid uncertainty suggests their assessment of Manhattan’s long-term prospects is more optimistic than broader sentiment indicates. “If they were terrified that something was going to happen, they wouldn’t put their money here,” Neissani says.
The Corcoran Group, where Neissani works with buyers across all price points, has observed this divide firsthand. Whether the broader Manhattan market will begin to mirror the confidence of the ultra-wealthy, or whether the current gap between luxury buyers and the rest of the market will persist, remains to be seen. For now, the willingness of affluent buyers to invest in high-value Manhattan real estate stands as a vote of confidence in the city’s future, even as headlines suggest caution and uncertainty elsewhere. This behavior may ultimately influence how other buyers and investors view risk and opportunity in Manhattan’s residential market in the months ahead.
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