The Rate Is Not the Number That Matters in Tucson's Housing Market

Written by:

Heather Hook

Date:

27 Aug 2026

KeyCrew Studio

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The conversation about buying a home in Tucson keeps circling back to interest rates. Rates are too high. Rates might drop. Rates were better two years ago. It is the wrong conversation, and it is costing buyers real money.

Tony Ray Baker, owner and team leader at RE/MAX Fine Properties and the agent behind SeeTucsonHomes, has been running the numbers for buyers in Tucson for over 30 years. His position is direct: the rate is almost never the number that determines whether a buyer comes out ahead.

Why Lower Rates Do Not Mean Better Deals

Tony Ray runs a comparison he uses regularly with clients. Take a $400,000 home purchased at 6.0 percent two years ago. Now compare it to a $375,000 home purchased today at 6.5 percent. The buyer with the higher rate and the lower price is often in a better long-term financial position, not a worse one.

“The rate can go down, but if the rate goes down, the prices are probably going to go up, and so will the competition” Tony Ray says. “So cash out of pocket can be crazy.”

When rates drop, more buyers enter the market. More buyers mean more competition, which pushes prices up and pulls seller concessions off the table. The monthly payment savings from a lower rate can be absorbed quickly by a higher purchase price and a seller unwilling to negotiate.

What the Current Market Is Actually Offering

What buyers in Tucson have right now that they did not have two years ago goes well beyond the rate conversation. Tony Ray describes a market where sellers are contributing $10,000 to $15,000 toward closing costs, completing repairs before handover, and in some cases buying down the buyer’s interest rate to make the payment work. Arizona’s standard 10-day inspection window gives buyers time to be thorough rather than rushed.

“Buying at a rate that other people are afraid of is a real big advantage in today’s market for anyone,” Tony Ray says.

He adds another factor most buyers overlook entirely: a higher interest rate is typically a larger tax deduction. For buyers who itemize, that deduction reduces their effective income tax burden, partially offsetting the cost of the higher rate in ways that do not show up in a simple rate comparison.

Tucson’s appreciation pattern adds a further layer. Tony Ray describes the market as running at four to six percent annual appreciation consistently over the past 30 years, with none of the dramatic swings seen in Phoenix or California markets. That steady upward movement means buyers who purchase at current prices are building equity from the start, regardless of where rates land next year.

The Number That Actually Matters

Tony Ray’s approach with every buyer starts in the same place: not the rate, not the listing price, but the monthly payment they can comfortably afford. From that number, he works backward to find the homes that fit.

“What can they afford right now? Not the price of the house, but the payment,” Tony Ray says. “Let’s take the payment and go apply it and find the houses that fit the payment, and they’re out there.”

That reframe changes the entire conversation. A buyer fixated on waiting for a 5.5 percent rate is making a prediction about the future that may not materialize, while sitting out a market where sellers are negotiating, inventory is available, and the purchasing math is working in their favor today.

“Most likely you’re in a better position today than you were when the rate was a little lower,” Tony Ray says.

The buyers who figure that out are the ones making moves. The ones waiting for a number that may never arrive are watching the market move without them.

Buyers ready to run the numbers for their specific situation can start at seetucsonhomes.com/home-buyers.

Tony Ray Baker is the owner and team leader at RE/MAX Fine Properties, operating through SeeTucsonHomes. With over 30 years of residential real estate experience, Tony Ray and his team serve buyers and sellers across Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Sahuarita, Vail, Catalina, and Green Valley.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.

Disclosure: Individuals or companies mentioned may have a commercial relationship with KeyCrew.