After a period of price corrections and cautious buyer sentiment, Southwest Florida’s residential market is showing signs of renewed momentum. Inventory is tightening, builder incentives are quietly disappearing, and a new wave of permanent residents is beginning to reshape demand across Lee and Collier counties in Fort Myers and Naples, replacing the seasonal and vacation buyers who historically defined the region. The timing coincides with broader economic expansion in the region, where millions of square feet of commercial space are under construction and national homebuilders are preparing major new communities.
Steven Zalunardo, Broker of Record and President of Treviso Realty, a boutique brokerage based in Estero, operates across brokerage, property management, and residential development. His client base draws heavily from Canada, the Midwest, and the Northeast, giving him direct visibility into the relocation trends reshaping Southwest Florida’s buyer pool. With roughly 45 transactions closed in the first half of 2026, his market read is grounded in current, firsthand experience across the region.
One distinction separating Southwest Florida from other high-growth Sun Belt markets is supply discipline. While some Florida metros saw aggressive construction during the post-pandemic run-up, the Estero-Fort Myers-Naples corridor did not follow suit.
Current MLS data for new construction in Estero shows available units in the 30-50 range, a notably thin selection for a market drawing consistent buyer interest. Inventory across Lee and Collier counties sits at roughly 24,000 to 25,000 units, translating to approximately four to five months of supply. In Estero specifically, new construction inventory is closer to three months, a figure that historically signals competitive conditions. “Even when I have clients coming into town, there are only two communities I can realistically show that are going to make sense financially,” Zalunardo says.
The region bottomed out around June of last year and has since begun trending upward. Builder behavior reinforces that reading. National builders, including Lennar, Taylor Morrison, and Pulte, which had largely paused new lot releases during the correction, are now preparing to bring significant new communities online through late 2026 and into 2027. One planned development near Estero is projected to include 10,000 homes. “If you follow the money,” Zalunardo says, “these guys know what’s happening.”
The commercial and industrial pipeline around Southwest Florida Regional Airport offers a broader signal about the region’s economic direction. Zalunardo estimates that at least 10 million square feet of retail, commercial, and light industrial space is currently under construction in the RSW corridor, a scale of development that points to genuine economic expansion rather than speculative building.
That commercial growth carries direct implications for housing. New retail, warehousing, and office space attracts incoming businesses and creates new jobs, which draws younger, working-age residents who live and spend in the region year-round. “These are young families moving in and putting money and energy into the community,” Zalunardo explains. The resulting buyer profile broadens the pool, reduces the market’s dependence on the winter buying cycle, and supports price stability in ways that secondary-home demand alone cannot.
Sellers in the region are no longer negotiating from a position of weakness. A year ago, closing cost credits, commission bumps, and other concessions were routine. That dynamic has changed.
Zalunardo describes a recent transaction involving a sub-$300,000 townhome in Fort Myers in which the opposing agent submitted an offer 8 to 12 percent below asking, requested an elevated commission, and sought a $5,000 closing-cost credit. His response was to reduce the asking price by $4,000, hold the commission at 2.5 percent, and decline any buyer incentives. By the next morning, the other side had accepted. “If that doesn’t tell you something about our market,” he says, leaving the implication clear.
Condos remain the most challenged segment across Florida. Zalunardo attributes this to structural reassessment requirements introduced following the 2021 Surfside collapse, rising HOA fees, and special assessments. “That’s the most hindered market, and that’s not just Southwest Florida; that’s all over Florida,” he says.
Single-family homes in established gated communities, particularly those priced under $2 million, are moving with considerably more urgency. In Verdana Village, where Zalunardo lives and works, he describes a consistent pattern of three or four buyers competing for available resale properties. In one recent case, a buyer relocating for a job needed to close before June 15. With no suitable listings available through conventional channels, Zalunardo turned to the community’s Facebook page and successfully represented both sides of the resulting transaction.
Insurance costs remain a frequent topic in Florida real estate conversations, but Zalunardo sees the issue as manageable for buyers who approach it strategically. Purchasing in FEMA X or X500 flood zones eliminates flood insurance requirements. Properties in communities built with engineered retention systems and situated well above sea level carry standard hurricane and water-damage policies without the added burden of flood insurance. Communities positioned well inland, some 15 to 17 miles from the coast, typically fall within these lower-risk designations.
Zalunardo says buyers who insist on purchasing in a flood zone should do so with full awareness of the long-term cost implications.
Cross-border migration from Canada accounts for an increasing share of buyer activity in Southwest Florida. Canada is currently experiencing its highest rate of outmigration since the late 1940s, with estimates suggesting that roughly 40 percent of the country’s top income earners have relocated, a significant share of them to the United States.
Political dissatisfaction in Canada has accelerated the trend. Many of these buyers are not purchasing vacation homes. According to Zalunardo, many are putting down roots in Southwest Florida rather than maintaining seasonal ties. That distinction matters for the Fort Myers and Naples housing market. Full-time residents generate sustained demand, support local businesses, and extend purchasing activity well beyond the traditional winter window.
The primary macro variable Zalunardo is watching is the conflict in the Middle East and its potential effect on oil prices and inflation, factors that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate path and buyer purchasing power. Should interest rates remain elevated, affordability pressure could temper demand at the entry level, particularly for buyers financing from outside the region. For now, that risk has not materialized into a slowdown. Residential construction projects resuming after an 18-month pause add further evidence that the market has moved past its correction.
The fundamentals in Southwest Florida point toward a measured recovery, one driven less by speculation than by people who have decided this is where they want to build their lives permanently.
About the Expert: Steven Zalunardo is the Broker of Record and President of Treviso Realty, a boutique brokerage based in Estero, Florida, operating across Lee and Collier counties. His firm works across brokerage, property management, and residential development, primarily serving buyers relocating from Canada, the Midwest, and the Northeast.
This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.
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