Rate Dips, Pent-Up Demand, and a Tax Ballot Measure Are Reshaping Central Florida's Housing Market

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19 Jun 2026

After nearly four decades in Central Florida real estate, few observers have a longer view of the market’s cycles than Domenique Lombardo, Broker and Owner of Royalty Real Estate Boutique. Having started her career in 1988, she has watched the region grow from quiet orange groves and cow fields into one of the country’s most closely watched residential markets. That perspective shapes how she reads the current moment, with measured optimism, but without illusions.

A Market That Stalled

The stretch from August 2025 through February 2026 was a difficult period for Central Florida real estate. Activity stalled across the board, with both buyers and sellers finding little reason to act. “We had almost a stagnant market where there wasn’t really much movement either way,” Lombardo recalls.

The thaw came in March, when interest rates dipped modestly. Traffic spiked through March and April, driven by rate movement, improving sentiment, and pent-up demand from buyers who had run out of patience. Even cash buyers responded, their decisions tied less to financing costs than to broader signals from equity markets.

May brought fresh headwinds. Rising oil prices, renewed geopolitical tension, and the natural slowdown of the school-year calendar created another brief lull. But as of early June 2026, activity was picking back up. “This past weekend, I’ve seen it spike a little bit again,” Lombardo says, “so hopefully we’re going to have a stronger summer season.”

Sellers Anchored to the Past

One of the more persistent friction points is the gap between seller expectations and current conditions. Many homeowners, particularly in the upper price tiers, remain anchored to the peak valuations of 2021 and 2022, slowing deal velocity across the board.

For luxury sellers who don’t face financial pressure to move, the calculus is straightforward: wait it out. “They have the money, and they can wait,” Lombardo explains. “They’re usually selling because of lifestyle, not really necessity, so if they don’t have to, they’ll just hold out.”

That patience has a cost. Some sellers pulled listings entirely during the slow months, choosing to relist now in hopes of catching a stronger market. Others are watching builders, who have been more willing to offer concessions such as rate buydowns and closing cost assistance, and are beginning to reconsider their own positioning.

The buyer side has shown its own form of hesitation. Lombardo says roughly half of deals last year fell apart, often during the inspection period, not because of material defects, but due to what she describes as an unusual level of emotional second-guessing. “People would get nervous and just cancel for whatever reason, like I’d never seen before, and I’ve been doing this almost 40 years.” That pattern has since improved, but it underscores how unsettled sentiment was throughout much of 2025.

A Policy Wildcard

One factor that could accelerate out-of-state buyer activity before year-end is a proposed ballot measure that would eliminate property taxes on primary homestead residences in Florida. Governor DeSantis has been publicly supportive of the initiative, which is expected to go before voters in November 2026.

The proposed measure includes a notable catch: those who are not already Florida permanent residents with a homestead exemption at the time of the vote would need to wait five years before qualifying. That provision is already influencing buyer behavior. Lombardo believes the prospect alone will drive relocations before the vote, regardless of whether the measure ultimately passes. “The people who want that will probably move here before November,” she says.

The proposal remains politically contested, and its ultimate fate is uncertain. But for buyers who have been watching Florida from the outside, the potential savings are significant enough to prompt a decision they might otherwise have deferred.

Luxury Deals Still Get Done

Despite the broader market turbulence, well-positioned properties in the right hands are still closing at strong numbers. Lombardo recently sold a Winter Park home for approximately $500,000 above what comparable market data suggested, a nearly $4 million transaction that closed within three weeks of listing.

The approach combined three distinct events within a ten-day window: a public open house that drew close to 50 visitors, a brokers’ open attended by roughly 45 luxury agents, and a VIP event targeting athletes, entertainers, and high-net-worth connectors who might realistically consider a property at that price point. “I think it helped drive the price as well as the activity,” she says.

The property’s appeal was also partly a function of scarcity. Single-story homes in Winter Park, a high-demand submarket known for its older housing stock, are relatively rare, and newer construction in that format is even harder to find. Identifying and marketing that distinction was central to the strategy.

Lake Nona

Among Central Florida’s submarkets, Lake Nona continues to generate sustained interest, anchored by the ongoing expansion of Medical City. Lombardo, who has lived in Lake Nona for 25 years, has watched the area grow from undeveloped land into one of the region’s most active communities, home to a new VA hospital, Nemours Children’s Hospital, a LEED-certified medical facility, and emerging transportation technology, including autonomous air taxis.

Thousands of acres remain undeveloped, and the pipeline of medical, research, and lifestyle-oriented projects shows no signs of slowing. For buyers relocating for healthcare careers or seeking proximity to top-tier medical services, the area remains a consistent draw. The broader retail and commercial infrastructure is still catching up; the area’s first Target and first major shopping center with anchor tenants are only now arriving, which suggests the residential demand story has more room to run.

Resetting Expectations on Rates

Perhaps the most important mindset change Lombardo sees taking hold is a gradual acceptance that the ultra-low interest rates of 2020 through 2022 were a historical anomaly, not a baseline. She started her career when rates were at 10 and 11 percent, and buyers still transacted. “I have only seen those interest rates once in all of those years,” she says of the 2-to-4 percent range. “To me, it was a once-in-a-lifetime type of thing.”

Today’s rates, while higher than pandemic-era lows, remain moderate by historical standards. Lombardo believes buyers are beginning to accept this reality, a shift that, if it continues, could gradually reduce the standoff between buyers waiting for rates to fall and sellers waiting for buyers to act.

For out-of-state buyers who still picture Florida at 2015 price levels, the adjustment is equally necessary. Values have risen substantially, but Lombardo is direct about the underlying case: “We’re still a good value with an amazing lifestyle.”

Looking ahead, the variables she is watching most closely are interest rates, economic confidence, and the unpredictable influence of hurricane season. After nearly four decades, she has seen enough cycles to distinguish between a pause and a turning point, and what Central Florida is experiencing now, she believes, is firmly the former.

About the Expert: Domenique Lombardo is Broker and Owner of Royalty Real Estate Boutique, with nearly four decades of experience in the Central Florida market dating back to 1988. She has lived in Lake Nona for 25 years and works across Central Florida’s residential market with a focus on luxury properties.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.

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