New Lenox, Illinois Still Has a Two-Month Housing Supply. The Market Is Starting to Cool.

For most of the past six years, sellers in New Lenox – a southwest suburb of Chicago with strong schools and relatively affordable housing – could list a home with loose pricing and still attract multiple offers within days. That dynamic is changing, according to Tyler Burlison, a listing-focused agent with eXp Realty who has worked the New Lenox market since 2018. Days on market are rising, showings per listing are declining, and the number of offers per listing has dropped compared to nine to twelve months ago – even as prices have not yet followed.

The gap between those leading indicators and actual price movement is where the current tension sits. Sellers who recognize the shift early are selling first and for more money. Those who don’t are watching their listings accumulate days on market, which tends to compress the eventual sale price rather than protect it.

A Six-Month Lag in Seller Psychology

Burlison estimates that roughly 85 percent of his business is on the listing and selling side, bringing on four to five new listings per month on average. From that vantage point, he sees a consistent pattern in how sellers process market changes: they run about six months behind what is actually happening.

Sellers who anchor their expectations to what sold in the prior six months and price above it are the ones sitting. Those pricing at or just below current comparables are moving first and for the most money.

The practical consequence is that pricing discipline – which mattered less during the peak of the seller’s market – has become the most important variable in a listing’s outcome. “Price is the number one marketing tool that you have as a seller and everything else works well if it’s priced properly,” Burlison says. “It doesn’t matter how good of marketing you have or presentation you have. If it’s priced incorrectly, it’s not going to sell.”

Leading Indicators Without Price Drops

New Lenox currently has a two-month supply of homes – meaning at the current sales pace, if no new listings entered the market, every listed home would sell in two months. A balanced market, by Burlison’s measure, would be four to five months. The area remains firmly in seller’s market territory.

But early signals of loosening are visible. Burlison notes that northwest Indiana, just across the state line, started showing the same pattern – extended market time and softening demand – about 18 to 24 months ago. That shift has now reached the Illinois side.

“We haven’t seen prices coming down yet, but the leading indicator of that is extending market time and inventory increase,” he says. “We’re starting to see signs of both of that. So the next sign will be price drops, and how often and how large the price drops are will be telling, but we haven’t quite seen that just yet.”

For sellers, this means the window to price loosely and still sell quickly is closing. Listings that would have drawn multiple offers over asking price a year ago are sitting if they are even slightly overpriced.

South Cook County Tells a Different Story

Not every pocket in the broader Chicagoland market is on the same trajectory. South Cook County – which includes towns like Homewood and Chicago Heights, some just fifteen minutes from New Lenox – is already dealing with elevated inventory and longer market times. The driver, according to Burlison, is property tax reassessments.

Cook County reassesses property taxes on a triennial cycle. The most recent assessment in 2023 hit south Cook County townships with the highest percentage increases. Burlison says the next reassessment is scheduled for 2026, with tax bills arriving in 2027. “We might see a doubling down of inventory hitting the market and taking a lot longer to sell and significant price reductions to get property sold to make up for those increases in taxes,” he says.

For homeowners in those townships, successive rounds of tax increases could erode equity gains and push more listings onto an already softening market.

Where Affordability Still Works

Part of what sustains demand in New Lenox is its value relative to more established suburbs to the north and west. Communities like Naperville, Burr Ridge, and Downers Grove have seen entry-level prices rise to the point where first-time buyers and move-up buyers are looking further south. New Lenox offers a lower price per square foot, access to the Lincoln Way School District, and proximity to county forest preserves with trails, parks, and restaurants.

The typical buyer profile reflects this: growing families upgrading from smaller homes in neighboring towns, first-time buyers entering the market at a more accessible price, and empty nesters downsizing into ranch properties or moving to retirement areas like Florida and Arizona.

One current listing in Bristol Park illustrates the pattern. Buyers who purchased their first home in Oak Forest a couple of years ago are now upsizing into New Lenox as their children reach school age. Burlison says this trajectory – a starter home elsewhere followed by a move into New Lenox for the schools – is common.

The Middle Market Is Where Pressure Is Building

Burlison says the luxury market in New Lenox is still selling quickly. The pressure is concentrated in the middle market – the move-up buyer segment – where affordability ceilings are starting to appear. “We’re starting to see some ceilings being met in terms of debt-to-income and affordability on pricing,” he says.

For investors considering the area, Burlison points to properties below $300,000 as the segment with the most opportunity, whether for rentals or flips. Multifamily inventory remains limited, and the rental market is strong. Longer-term, development activity near the 355 exit – including a baseball field project and additional planned construction – points toward continued demand.

Burlison says life events remain the strongest driver of transactions regardless of market conditions. Buyers with a job transfer or a growing family will purchase even at current rates, while unmotivated buyers would stay on the sidelines even if rates dropped to 3 percent. The sellers who adjust their pricing expectations to match what the market is doing now – rather than what it was doing six months ago – are the ones whose listings sell first and for the strongest price.

About the Expert: Tyler Burlison is a listing-focused agent with eXp Realty who has worked the New Lenox, Illinois market since 2018.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.