Montgomery County, Texas, Is Deep in a Correction That Still Has Room to Run

Written by:

Alejandra Rodriguez

Date:

26 Aug 2026

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In most markets, active inventory represents a fraction of recent sales. In Conroe, Texas, one of six cities within Montgomery County, there are currently 1,860 active properties on the market while only 2,275 sold over the past six months. That near-parity between supply and absorption tells a clear story about where this north-Houston-area market sits in August 2026, according to Maria Borrego, a Realtor with Walzel Properties who has worked in Montgomery County for 20 years.

The correction began around May 2023, Borrego says, after COVID-era appreciation pushed property values up 130% to 200% in certain areas. “It’s going to take at least five years,” she says, adding that the goal appears to be a stabilization point roughly 30 to 35 percent above 2019 values, far below current levels but above pre-pandemic pricing.

Who’s Moving and Who’s Staying Put

The buyer pool has narrowed to people with no choice. “The people who are moving right now are people who have to move. That’s it,” Borrego says. “If you don’t have to move, they are not moving.”

One recent transaction illustrates the dynamic. A landlord decided to sell rather than continue renting due to rising property taxes, displacing the tenant, who then had to purchase a home. That pattern is repeating across the county: property taxes are pushing owners to unload assets that aren’t producing income, which simultaneously adds inventory and forces displaced renters into buying.

Lots and vacant land are flooding the market as a result. “Property taxes have gone up, and so now it’s harder to hold properties that are not producing money,” Borrego says. “I see a lot of lots coming up.”

A Split Market Favoring the Extremes

Not everything is sitting. Properties over a million dollars, waterfront homes, and listings in The Woodlands, a planned community within Montgomery County known for its school districts, retail, and restaurants, are moving faster than the rest. Borrego’s summary is direct: “It’s either you’re really rich, or you’re super poor right now. That’s just what it is.”

Buyers who are active have leverage they haven’t had in years and are using it. With inventory high, they’re demanding homes in strong condition, newer roofs, updated HVAC systems, renovated kitchens. Meanwhile, new construction is competing aggressively by paying closing costs and offering temporarily reduced interest rates. Resale homes counter with established neighborhoods and larger lots, but the incentive gap is real.

“The goal is to get 80% of what you want,” Borrego tells buyers. “Because the only way to get 100 is if you build it.”

The Hidden Math on Land Deals

For investors eyeing raw acreage in the area, Borrego flags a common miscalculation. Buyers assume building on raw land is cheaper than buying an existing home, but they underestimate infrastructure costs. Adding an electricity pole, septic system, and well runs approximately $37,000 before any clearing or construction begins. If the parcel is heavily wooded, clearing adds another $15,000.

By contrast, a lot in an established subdivision – priced higher per square foot – comes with public water and existing electrical infrastructure already in place, making the total build cost more predictable. A subdivision lot valued at $50,000 in an area where finished homes sell above $400,000 reflects that infrastructure premium.

For sellers holding undeveloped land, the implication is clear: buyers who understand these costs will discount their offers accordingly, and those who don’t will discover them during due diligence.

What Investors Should Watch

Borrego has advised the same three investors for 15 years and says her current guidance is patience. “Just keep saving money. It’s not time to buy,” she tells them. “But next year it’s going to be better.”

For those who insist on deploying capital now, she steers them toward specific pockets rather than broad geography. Within Houston proper, she names the Heights, River Oaks, and several inner wards around downtown as areas with strong fundamentals. Acres Home, she adds, is an area that has been appreciating over time and still offers relative value.

Her broader caution centers on block-level specificity. “If you’re on the wrong block, it’s not going to be as beneficial to you,” she says. Price per square foot in Montgomery County alone ranges from $48 to $411 depending on location, a spread wide enough to make county-level averages meaningless for investment decisions.

Borrego’s advice for investors entering the market: commit to one agent who knows the micro-geography, and stop chasing off-market deals exclusively. “Not every deal is off market because our market has shifted,” she says. “You’re able to get good deals everywhere.”

Why Sellers Need to Move Now on Pricing

Borrego says she is presenting sellers with comparable sales data and that most of her clients are accepting the need for concessions. But realism depends on when they bought. Homeowners who purchased between 2019 and 2025 may still see a small profit depending on location, but those who bought at peak prices risk being underwater if the correction continues its current trajectory.

With the market potentially stabilizing at 30 to 35 percent above 2019 values, sellers who bought during the steepest part of the run-up face a narrowing window. Each additional month of carrying costs, property taxes, maintenance, and insurance erodes whatever equity remains. For sellers who can act now, pricing to the current comparable sales data rather than to what a neighbor sold for in 2021 is the difference between closing and watching a listing age past the point of buyer interest.

About the Expert: Maria Borrego is a Realtor with Walzel Properties who has worked in Montgomery County, Texas, for 20 years.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.