Manhattan’s residential inventory has fallen to its lowest point since early 2016, setting the city apart from national trends and potentially positioning it for price appreciation while much of the country faces a correction, according to Jared Antin, Executive Director at Brown Harris Stevens.
“If you look at the supply dynamic, you have to go back several years to get to a similar point of where we are today,” Antin says, citing data that shows inventory at decade lows during what is already the seasonal trough for listings.
This decline stands out as national headlines report rising supply in most U.S. markets. Antin notes that New York often moves counter to national real estate patterns, making this divergence significant for predicting the city’s market direction.
The underlying mechanics of Manhattan’s inventory shortage highlight key differences between New York and other markets. Antin explains that New York City owners typically hold properties for five to seven years, compared with the national average of seven to ten years.
“In the suburbs, you buy a big house you can grow into, but because New York City is more expensive, people buy by bedroom,” Antin says. Residents often purchase a two-bedroom home and trade up to a three-bedroom as their needs change, resulting in more frequent transactions.
This shorter holding period also affects the mortgage market. Antin notes that more Manhattan buyers use adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) — usually five- or seven-year terms — compared with the fixed thirty-year loans standard elsewhere.
That strategy made sense when rates were at historic lows during the early pandemic. Now, five to six years later, those ARMs are starting to reset. “The lock-in effect that’s keeping people from moving nationally because they have such a low rate will start to weaken faster in New York City,” Antin says. As rates reset, more owners may decide to sell and buy, increasing market activity.
The low inventory data also contradicts widespread media claims of a mass departure from New York City. “There was a lot of fear-mongering in the media about people leaving New York,” Antin recalls.
Antin argues that if residents were truly leaving in large numbers, inventory would not be at a ten-year low. “People are staying. People want to own a piece of New York. That’s why we’re seeing higher contract activity and lower supply,” he says.
Recent survey data from Brown Harris Stevens supports this view. After two weeks of snowstorms that disrupted open houses, the firm surveyed brokers on market sentiment. Sixty-three percent reported that the market felt busier or much busier at the start of 2026 than at the end of 2025.
Antin also points to December’s contract activity as evidence of strong demand. “December was your third best in nine years,” he notes, adding that Manhattan contracts almost always close, since the city rarely uses the inspection contingencies common elsewhere. “I see very few contracts fall out,” he says.
Whether Manhattan’s low inventory is a seasonal anomaly or a sign of lasting change will become clearer this spring, Antin says. He outlines the city’s typical cycle: inventory builds in spring, peaks around Memorial Day, drops through summer, and rises again for fall.
“What I’m curious about is when we get into the end of the spring season—May, June—where is our peak?” Antin asks. If inventory returns to historical levels, the decade-low reading may reflect only a quiet winter. But if spring inventory rises less than usual because buyers are absorbing new supply quickly, it would suggest a more profound supply-demand imbalance.
This matters because sustained low supply, combined with steady demand, creates conditions for price increases. “If there’s less supply and more demand, that’s an important precursor to appreciation in our market,” Antin says.
Unlike other cities that saw significant price gains from 2020 to 2023, New York has experienced nearly a decade of flat prices. As markets elsewhere now correct and supply rises, New York may be set to move in the opposite direction.
Despite tight supply, Antin reports that buyers are not acting with the urgency seen in overheated markets. “Buyers are staying very discerning,” he says. “They’re confident but careful, and they’re comparing prices. They’re looking at a lot of properties.”
Multiple offers on well-priced homes are common, and bidding wars sometimes break out on the best listings, but these are not yet widespread. “Our market’s not driven by fear of missing out or a sense of urgency,” Antin says.
However, Antin notes that if competition increases this spring, buyer psychology could shift. “If buyers feel that sense of urgency, that can start changing some of those dynamics, which would be an important sign that we’re starting the next wave of price appreciation,” he says. “But we don’t know if we’re there yet.”
For investors and buyers trying to anticipate broader price gains, Antin believes widespread appreciation is unlikely to appear in national data before late 2026 or 2027. He sees the current period, while New York’s market is supply-constrained but not yet recognized as such by most investors, as the best window to act.
Taken together, Manhattan’s decade-low inventory, steady demand, and contrasting national trends suggest the city could see price gains while other markets correct. The coming spring will reveal whether this is a temporary lull or a lasting shift, one that could redefine New York’s place in the national housing cycle.
Explore similar articles from Our Team of Experts.
A significant shift is occurring in Toronto’s real estate market as long-term urban homeowners increasingly opt for suburban properties, driven by changing lifestyle needs and financia...
