Loan Officers Assume Nobody's Refinancing. The Numbers Say Otherwise

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

27 Jul 2026

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The conventional narrative in mid-2026 is that elevated interest rates have frozen refinance activity. Loan officers repeat it to each other, and it shapes how they spend their days – focused almost exclusively on purchase business while assuming nobody wants to refinance at current rates. That narrative runs counter to a figure cited from recent industry reporting: refinances accounted for 43% of all mortgage loans being originated the week prior to this interview, a number that surprises even experienced professionals when they hear it.

The disconnect, according to Ron Vaimberg, President of Ron Vaimberg International, who says he has coached or trained over 300,000 originators since 1997, is not about market conditions. It is about the conversations loan officers are choosing not to have. “If you don’t believe people are refinancing, you’re not going to talk about it,” he says.

Most of those refinances are not rate-and-term transactions. They are cash-out refinances, borrowers consolidating credit card debt at 28% or auto loans at 10% into their mortgage. The business exists. The question is whether originators are framing the conversation around debt consolidation rather than rate reduction.

Referral Networks Are Outperforming

The mood among mortgage professionals right now is mixed. Rates recently hit their highest point of the year, and the purchase market remains constrained. But Vaimberg draws a sharp line between originators who built referral networks during better times and those who didn’t.

Vaimberg says his coaching clients are not immune to the slowdown, but that the impact is muted for those with established referral networks. “They have created such large networks of referral partners that even when the business slows down, their critical mass of relationships is enough to keep them still significantly busy by comparison to the industry,” he says. “They’re not wondering where their next paycheck is going to come from.”

The pattern he sees among struggling originators is consistent: they make meetings with real estate agents about themselves rather than the agent. They present their product lineup, promise great service, and talk through credentials, none of which distinguishes them from any other loan officer in the room. “No loan officer is ever going to go in and say, I’m not going to give you great service,” Vaimberg says. “So those words have no meaning.”

The fix is shifting the meeting structure entirely, asking questions that uncover what problems the agent is actually facing. Vaimberg frames it simply: a loan officer’s business grows based on how well they solve a problem for someone or how well they create an opportunity for them. Most loan officers do all the talking because they are not prepared to ask questions, and because, as Vaimberg puts it, “as long as you do all the talking, the person can’t object.”

The Pattern Problem

A recurring issue Vaimberg encounters with experienced originators – those producing well but stuck at a ceiling – is what he calls a “pattern”: the unconscious beliefs and decision-making habits that govern daily behavior without the person recognizing them.

“Everybody has a pattern that runs them every single day,” he says. “Most people have no idea what that pattern is. They think it’s their goals. But how you execute to achieve your goals is based upon these patterns.”

The symptom is often visible as inconsistency: a good month followed by a bad month, repeated in cycles. Vaimberg’s approach is to identify the underlying belief driving the behavior rather than addressing the behavior itself. Once the originator sees what is causing the cycle, what belief or priority is triggering self-sabotage, the pattern becomes impossible to ignore. “Once they see it, they can’t unsee it,” he says.

He contrasts this with clients who already have established businesses but want to improve team performance. In those cases, the coaching focuses on communication with support staff, improving how the originator directs their team so loans close more smoothly and the client experience improves without requiring additional hours.

AI Adoption Is Wide but Shallow

On artificial intelligence, Vaimberg sees broad but largely ineffective adoption among loan officers. Most are using AI at a basic level, using generic prompts like “give me some marketing strategies to develop agent relationships,” and getting generic results in return.

The psychological barrier is that AI moves so fast that originators develop a belief they cannot catch up, which reduces their motivation to invest effort in learning it properly. “When you develop the belief that you can’t catch up, then your brain is like, well then why really even put in the effort?” he says. They settle into basic usage and stop trying to advance.

His own training focuses on using AI as an interviewing tool, having it ask the originator questions, then using those answers to generate content in the originator’s authentic voice rather than producing generic posts indistinguishable from every other AI-generated piece on social media. “Most people are looking for it to use it so they don’t have to do the work, which is not the purpose of AI,” Vaimberg says. The distinction he draws: AI should make originators more effective, not replace their effort entirely.

The Case Against Predictions

Asked about trends for the next year, Vaimberg offers a deliberate non-answer and frames it as strategic. He argues that geopolitical events, shifting Fed expectations, and weekly data releases make any prediction beyond 90 days unreliable. Rate forecasts change month to month, sometimes week to week. “Nobody’s gotten anything right, significantly right, with a prediction beyond 90 days ahead of us,” he says.

His advice to originators: stop making business decisions based on economic forecasts and focus instead on expanding their network. When rates stay within a certain range for a period of time, regardless of whether that range is 3%, 6%, or 8%, people eventually accept the reality and move forward. “We have, as human beings, progressed forward,” Vaimberg says. “We don’t want to be stuck.”

The originators who keep expanding their referral networks during these periods are positioned to capture that activity when it picks up. Those waiting for rate predictions to guide their strategy are, in Vaimberg’s view, ceding ground they will not easily recover. “As long as you just keep expanding your network, you are in the safest place in this business,” he says. “And that’s the part that the vast majority will not put the effort into.”

About the Expert: Ron Vaimberg is President of Ron Vaimberg International, a mortgage industry coaching and training organization he has operated since 1997, having coached or trained over 300,000 originators across his career.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.