The Next Phase for Tampa Bay's Residential Market

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

31 Oct 2025

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What’s ahead for the residential market in Tampa Bay? According to Lance Willard, founder of the Willard Home Team, the market is moving toward stabilization after bottoming out, with notable inventory changes and evolving buyer behavior on the horizon. In a recent interview, Willard shared his perspective on emerging trends and what participants should expect in the coming months.

“I believe we’ve already hit, quote unquote, the bottom of our market. And I believe that we will be stabilized in 2026,” said Willard, who brings 18 years of experience in the Tampa Bay market and expects his team to close 125 transactions this year.

The Tampa Bay residential market has shifted from the out-of-state buyer surge of 2021-2022 to a market now driven by local buyers, with transaction volumes now about half of what they were during the peak. “Our team traditionally helps almost 200 people a year with buying or selling, and our numbers are literally cut in half,” Willard noted.

Willard outlined several key dynamics currently influencing the Tampa Bay housing market. The lingering impact of recent hurricanes is expected to reshape inventory levels, with a wave of repaired and renovated properties likely to hit the market within the next six months.

Meanwhile, the evolving insurance landscape is prompting overdue updates across Florida’s aging housing stock, as insurers push for improvements like new roofs and electrical systems. Finally, a shift in buyer demographics has made this an opportune moment for local purchasers, as sellers are increasingly willing to offer concessions and cover closing costs to attract serious buyers.

Willard pointed to properties outside flood zones as offering strong opportunities in the current market. “I see our interior lots not being in flood zones being in high, high demand as that inventory rises and the market stabilizing,” he said.

This trend follows a shift in buyer priorities after the 2024 hurricanes. “I’d say 90% of our buyers right now are going towards non-flood zone properties so they don’t have to pay for flood insurance.”

Willard highlighted several challenges for the Tampa Bay residential market: “The transactionally speaking, transactions are down heavily. So there’s less information and there’s less education out there.”

With fewer sales, agents and consumers have access to less data, resulting in a knowledge gap that complicates decision-making. “Anyone in the market, consumers or agents that are in the profession, the less data you have, the less educated you are on the market,” Willard said. Reduced transaction volume means fewer comparable sales and less reliable information for pricing.

Seller expectations have also become a challenge. “Sellers have had a tough time, you know, for three and a half years, really understanding that our market’s kind of cooled down. So sellers are wanting 2021 values when they’re just not there.”

For buyers and investors, Willard advised a practical approach: “If you can afford it and you have a purpose, there’s no reason to wait. So buy now, if it works for you.”

He also encouraged sellers to consider alternatives to immediate sales. “It’s a good idea to weigh the options of renting as well. Maybe rent for two to five years to see if the market comes back,” noting that about 15% of his seller clients are choosing this route.

Willard expects an increase in inventory in flood zones and strong demand for properties outside those areas. He anticipates this inventory growth will create a two-tier market, where location relative to flood zones will be the main factor in determining property value. The stabilization he projects for 2026 will likely reflect this new reality, rather than a return to pre-hurricane dynamics.

Willard’s outlook suggests Tampa Bay’s residential market is entering a new period defined by increased risk awareness, insurance-influenced decision making, and a lasting change in how buyers assess coastal versus inland properties.