Victoria’s Real Estate Market Finds Stability Through Community-Centered Approach

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

17 Feb 2026

Share

Share via Facebook

Share via Linkedin

Share via X

Copy to clipboard

Victoria’s residential real estate market has reached a period of relative stability, with conditions that industry veteran Tony Joe describes as balanced, a notable change from the rapid swings of the previous few years. After 35 years in Victoria’s real estate community, Joe, team leader at The PRIME Real Estate Team, sees reason for optimism heading into 2026.

Many compare current conditions to the volatile years of the pandemic and its aftermath, but Joe takes a longer view. “For me, it was a balanced year. There were no real surprises. We started very strongly. It did soften off near the end there,” he says. Rather than viewing recent years as a template, Joe focuses on the fundamentals that have shaped Victoria’s market over the decades.

Stable sales numbers and high inventory characterized 2025. While some see rising inventory as a warning sign, Joe argues it is positive for buyers. “Inventory was up, which is good, because we need that inventory for buyers. Buyers have choices,” he explains.

Building Success Through Community

Joe’s business model relies less on traditional marketing and more on building relationships within the community. His service as president of the Victoria Real Estate Board in 2008 led to roles on provincial and federal committees, expanding his professional network well beyond Vancouver Island.

“The byproduct I did not expect was making connections across the country,” Joe says. “As a result, I am very much an agent who enjoys incoming referrals, introductions from agents in other cities when they have someone who needs help in Victoria.”

Networking and community engagement now form the backbone of his business. About half of Joe’s work involves direct real estate transactions, while the rest focuses on community involvement and support for local organizations. His recent recognition as Victoria Chamber of Commerce Member of the Year highlights this approach.

“By supporting other businesses, we are rewarded by also being supported as well,” he says. “It’s very much giving before receiving.”

Supply, Demand, and Long-Term Investment

Victoria remains Canada’s third-most-expensive real estate market, a status driven by fundamental supply and demand rather than short-term market cycles. The city’s population has more than doubled during Joe’s career, rising from 200,000 to 420,000, while geographic limitations restrict outward growth.

“We’re at the southern tip of an island, and we don’t have room to move outwards,” Joe explains. “These are all factors that contribute to why Victoria is a very strong long-term investment.”

For investors, Victoria’s market is not about immediate returns. High purchase prices relative to rental income mean properties rarely offer strong cash flow. “From an investment standpoint, Victoria does not give a high return,” Joe says. “But people still invest because they know investing in Victoria is a long game.”

The real value comes from long-term appreciation rather than monthly profit. In contrast to prairie markets where properties are cheaper and offer better monthly cash flow, Victoria’s higher prices are offset by steady resale gains over time. “We don’t cash flow well, but we typically do very well on the resale for capital,” Joe notes.

Adjusting to New Market Realities

After the 2022 peak, sellers in Victoria have had to adjust their expectations. “Sellers are getting more realistic about their pricing,” Joe observes. Some homeowners who bought at the top of the market are unable to sell at a profit and have chosen to hold their properties instead.

Meanwhile, buyer activity is showing signs of improvement. Mortgage brokers report an uptick in pre-approvals, indicating that buyers are accepting current interest rates and moving forward rather than waiting for further declines. This renewed confidence is helping stabilize transaction volumes.

The condominium segment faces its own set of challenges. Increased inventory has created a highly competitive environment, especially at higher price points, where condos may compete directly with single-family homes. “The competition expands when a price point is getting higher,” Joe says, making it more difficult for sellers in the condo market to stand out.

Neighborhoods and Growth Corridors

Victoria’s established neighborhoods continue to attract long-term residents. Areas such as Fairfield, James Bay, and Oak Bay remain popular due to their proximity to downtown, access to the university, and established character. These neighborhoods offer stability and are less affected by short-term market swings.

The West Shore communities, including Langford and Colwood, represent the city’s primary growth area, with new construction aimed at families and first-time buyers. “Those are great opportunities for buyers looking for newer homes,” Joe explains. However, he cautions that rapid development can limit short-term appreciation as supply meets current demand.

Policy Changes and Market Impact

Recent regulatory changes are reshaping Victoria’s housing landscape. British Columbia’s Bill 44 now permits higher-density development, resulting in the ability to build or develop multi-unit housing on regular city-sized lots. “We’re seeing a lot more of these four-unit developments popping up,” Joe says. Still, he notes that it remains to be seen how well the market will embrace this new supply.

The foreign buyer ban, enacted in 2023, continues to affect the market, particularly for American buyers interested in Victoria. As Joe points out, “As a foreign buyer, you cannot buy a residential property in Canada presently,” with limited exceptions for Canadian citizens or their spouses. This policy has reduced international demand, adding another layer of complexity for sellers.

Specializing in Senior Services

Joe’s focus on senior downsizing provides steady business regardless of broader economic trends. “It’s a market that is not affected by the economy. It doesn’t matter what’s going on with interest rates,” he says. The reality of an aging population means downsizing and estate transitions occur regularly, regardless of market cycles.

This specialization, developed by Joe over 25 years, provides a reliable source of transactions. His team’s work in estates, trusts, development projects, and relocation services further diversifies the business, reducing its vulnerability to broader market fluctuations.

What Lies Ahead

Looking ahead to 2026, Joe expects increased activity in the spring, driven by buyers who have adjusted to current interest rates and recognize inventory availability as an opportunity. First-time buyers are returning to the market, signaling renewed confidence and a sense that conditions are favorable for entry.

Joe’s advice to fellow agents is direct: “There’s no magic bullet. This industry requires hard work. Business doesn’t fall out of the sky. It is very much a contact sport. It requires us to be in front of people and to show our value continually.”

For Victoria, the move toward balanced conditions following a period of volatility presents an opportunity to build a more sustainable market. Growth is now rooted in community relationships, realistic pricing, and long-term thinking rather than speculation or quick profits. As buyers, sellers, and agents adjust to this new reality, Victoria’s market is positioned for steady progress, supported by fundamentals that have proven resilient over decades.