Ontario’s real estate market correction has created a landscape where cash buyers see new opportunities but also face mounting challenges. As property values continue to decline from their 2022 highs and a surge of mortgage renewals approaches, off-market transactions are taking on increased urgency and complexity.
Sebastian Jania’s entry into real estate came by way of an unconventional route. Originally planning a career in physiotherapy, a trip to Spain exposed him to digital nomads and real estate entrepreneurs. “I met people talking about buying rental properties, flipping houses, and wholesaling houses. That was something I’d never heard of before,” Jania says. Inspired, he left his healthcare ambitions behind and began investing in real estate through a local mentorship program.
Today, Jania oversees Ontario Property Buyers and British Cash Offer Ohio, focusing on off-market. He describes his approach as “solution-focused service,” prioritizing flexibility and speed over sales pressure.
Ontario’s market correction has forced sellers to adjust their expectations, making negotiations more straightforward but also narrowing the pool of viable deals for cash buyers. “We’re finding that homeowners are more realistic as to what a cash offer might look like,” Jania says. “A year or two ago, a lot of homeowners were still stuck on the 2022 peak prices.”
While this realism has streamlined some negotiations, it has also reduced the number of workable leads. Many properties bought in the past four or five years have little or no equity after the recent price decline. “When we see sellers who’ve bought in the last four or five years, typically the process has to be different, because the majority of those leads aren’t going to be workable for us. There’s just not enough equity.”
This lack of equity is compounded by homeowners who refinanced during the low-interest rate period. Many now owe more than their homes are worth. “Even when we refer those off to realtors, they often have trouble because the sellers refinanced recently, and now their loan is way higher than what allows room for realtor commissions or concessions,” Jania explains.
Seller motivation has shifted from convenience to necessity. “I think there’s just more people who need to sell,” Jania says. “Before, maybe it was a little bit more about convenience. Now, it’s more people saying, ‘I need to be out in 30 days because of this,’ or ‘I need you to buy it and help me move.’ There’s just more intensity with every seller.”
This urgency is driving sellers to liquidate assets that have been idle for years. Jania recently acquired a property that had been vacant for three decades. “Because people are feeling the financial pinch, we’re getting houses that have been owned for a long time, just sitting, almost forgotten about within the family. All of a sudden, because of the financial climate, people are saying, ‘Let me liquidate this thing that’s been an eyesore because I need the cash now.’”
The main drivers behind these urgent sales are rising costs, job losses, and cash flow problems. “Before 2020, it was good times. Everyone could get cheap debt, and everyone had lots of cash. When prices started to fall, and rates started to go up, the party was over, and the financial hangover started to hit,” Jania says.
Ontario’s power of sale process adds another layer of difficulty for cash buyers. Homeowners in distress often delay seeking help until foreclosure is imminent, leaving little time for negotiation or due diligence.
“Most sellers don’t reach out when they miss their first payment. They usually reach out after they’ve missed a bunch, and that makes things way more stressful for them and tricky for us,” Jania says. He notes that these sellers often avoid confronting their financial situation, making it hard to obtain accurate mortgage information and maintain open communication.
Despite these hurdles, current market conditions have made some lenders more willing to negotiate. “A lot of private lenders and banks see that defaults are going up, so it’s actually easier to deal with those lenders now than maybe a couple of years ago. The lenders don’t really want these properties because their loans are very high relative to what the property is worth.”
Jania’s companies have become more selective about the types of properties they pursue. In the condo market, they focus only on older units with renovation potential, avoiding new construction altogether.
“We’re super selective with condos and don’t deal with new ones,” he says. “We’re looking for properties that are beat up, where we can add value. The new ones don’t fit that criteria, plus condo fees are typically very high – it’s not uncommon in the Greater Toronto Area to see them $1,000 plus a month.”
Pre-construction condos are especially risky, as many buyers are trying to sell immediately upon closing due to falling values. “If they all try to dump at once, there’s an overwhelming supply for that specific building, creating too many options for buyers.”
Single-family and small multi-family properties remain Jania’s preferred targets because they offer faster transactions and more predictable pricing. “The seller calls us today, same day we have it under contract, closing typically in 30 days. We know what it’s worth today, and the market won’t adjust significantly in a month versus riding a medium to long-term timeline with condos.”
Although interest rates have declined from over 5% to near 3% in 2024, Jania has not seen a meaningful improvement in the market. “I don’t feel like we’ve seen much benefit or drawback from rate changes. Maybe some of our lenders are willing to lend at slightly lower rates, but as far as changing market dynamics, I haven’t seen that really change things much.”
He attributes the lack of response to continued economic uncertainty and job losses. “I think they’ve been trying to lower rates to prop up the market and create opportunity for demand to jump in. I just don’t think that’s actually happened because there’s a lot of fear in the market and people losing jobs.”
Looking ahead, Jania anticipates that the real test for Ontario’s housing market will come in 2026, when a significant wave of five-year mortgage terms comes up for renewal. “I think there will be more opportunities for investors in 2026, but I don’t see much light for the average person in the real estate market.”
Unlike the U.S., where longer-term mortgages are common, most Canadian mortgages are fixed for five years. Many homeowners secured low rates in 2021, but will face much higher payments when their terms expire in 2025-2026. “With the wave of renewals still to come, and typical mortgage terms being five years versus longer terms in the States, there’s going to be more pain felt here. So many people got in during 2021 at really good rates, but in 2025-2026, those terms are coming up for renewal.”
This looming renewal wave is likely to increase financial pressure on homeowners and create additional distressed sale opportunities for cash buyers. Jania’s business, which specializes in rapid solutions for motivated sellers, is positioned to benefit from these trends, though it remains cautious about the broader outlook.
Ontario’s off-market real estate space is undergoing a marked shift. Sellers are increasingly driven by necessity rather than convenience, and cash buyers must balance tighter margins with greater selectivity. As economic pressures mount and the renewal wave approaches, the environment will likely remain challenging for traditional homeowners, even as it creates new opportunities for investors prepared to move quickly and offer flexible solutions. Jania’s experience illustrates how today’s market is defined by urgency, selectivity, and the ability to adapt to rapidly changing conditions.
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