Buffalo’s Apartment Conversion Boom Stalls Without Key Amenities

Written by:

Rudi Davis

Date:

27 Nov 2025

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Downtown Buffalo has the key ingredients for successful office-to-residential conversions, including vacant buildings, transit access, and proximity to major institutions. Yet, despite these advantages, many projects remain stalled. Michael Puma, Principal and Project Manager at Preservation Studios, attributes the delay not to regulatory or financial issues but to a structural coordination problem: potential developers and businesses are hesitant to move first, leaving the district stuck in a stalemate. This challenge, Puma notes, is common in many post-industrial cities trying to establish residential cores in formerly commercial areas.

The Amenity Paradox

Puma explains that the core challenge is a classic coordination problem: downtown cannot attract a critical mass of residents without basic amenities, yet businesses are reluctant to open until there are enough residents to support them. This stalemate, known as a coordination failure, occurs when multiple parties would benefit from acting together but lack a way to align their decisions.

He also identifies the lack of a full-sized grocery store as the most significant missing amenity in downtown Buffalo. A previous small store operated for a few years but eventually closed, leaving the area without this essential service. Without basic amenities such as grocery stores, pharmacies, and restaurants, potential residents are hesitant to move downtown, regardless of housing quality or transit access.

The Post-COVID Reality

The collapse of downtown office markets following COVID-19 has intensified the coordination problem, as vacant offices reduce the daytime population needed to support local businesses. While this creates opportunities for office-to-residential conversions, projects still struggle because the underlying amenity gap remains. Puma notes that a few conversions have taken place and believes there is potential for larger projects, but these efforts continue to face the same coordination challenges that have stalled broader downtown residential growth.

The Government Solution

Puma argues that market forces by themselves are unlikely to resolve the coordination problem, and he suggests that local government intervention could play a key role. Public sector investment or targeted incentives could help attract the first wave of amenities – such as grocery stores, restaurants, and other services – creating the foundation needed for private residential development to follow.

He is optimistic about the city’s new mayoral administration, which he notes has a preservationist focus and seems more committed to active development policies than the previous leadership. Puma sees this as an opportunity for strategic public involvement to help break the stalemate between developers waiting for amenities and businesses waiting for residents.

Regional Implications

The Buffalo case study has broader implications for similar cities throughout the Rust Belt and other regions with hollowed-out downtown cores. Puma notes that this “is an issue across a lot of other places in New York State, which could be replicable.”

Cities like Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany face similar challenges in converting downtown office buildings to residential use while building the amenity base necessary to attract residents. The coordination problem Puma identifies suggests that successful downtown residential conversion may require more active public sector involvement than traditional suburban or neighborhood-based development.

Looking Forward

Despite the challenges, Puma remains optimistic about downtown Buffalo’s potential. He highlights recent large-scale projects, including the renovation of a major building and the addition of over 150 new residential units – developments that he expected would take several more years to materialize. These projects suggest that momentum for office-to-residential conversions is beginning to build, even amid the structural coordination challenges facing the downtown market.

While the coordination problem remains significant, these projects indicate that it can be overcome. However, solving it may require the kind of strategic public intervention that Puma advocates – using government resources to break the stalemate between developers waiting for amenities and businesses waiting for residents.

Whether Buffalo’s new administration will pursue this approach, and whether other cities adopt similar strategies, may determine how quickly downtown office-to-residential conversions move from possibility to reality in post-industrial America.