Miami’s Real Estate Market And a Data-Driven Approach

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

12 Nov 2025

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The Miami real estate market has fundamentally changed since COVID-19, creating what industry analysts identify as new price categories that did not exist before the pandemic. This shift has been carefully documented by Ana Bozovic, founder and owner of Analytics Miami, whose analytical research has made her one of the most cited voices in South Florida real estate.

From Mathematics to Market Analysis

Ana Bozovic’s entry into real estate analysis began with an unconventional background. After studying theoretical mathematics and physics at Columbia University, focusing on “space, time, physics, modern geometry,” she developed an analytical framework that would later shape how Miami’s real estate market is understood.

“When you do stuff like this, you write proofs,” Bozovic says of her mathematical training. “Math is very conceptual, so it teaches you how to create order out of n-dimensional chaos and find patterns, and how to instinctively drill things down to their fundamental drivers, and then figure out order in the chaos.”

This approach proved valuable when she moved to Miami 12 years ago. Initially planning a short stay, Bozovic was drawn in by the city’s potential. “I felt that the city was so new… I just felt like, wow, the city is so poised for growth, the time zone, the airport, the geography, the quality of all those things.”

Addressing the Market Data Gap

When Bozovic obtained her real estate license, she found a notable lack of comprehensive market analysis. “I really could not find good information on the residential markets,” she recalls. “For commercial real estate, there are brokerages that put out pretty good information, but residential—not what I considered trend analysis or long-term data. It was mostly salesy stuff.”

This gap led her to create Analytics Miami, producing detailed quarterly reports with segmented analysis of Miami-Dade County. What began as personal research evolved into the market’s most trusted data source, distributed free to the public.

The company name traces back to her time as a competitive track athlete. “I ran the 200 and the 400 meters, and I was always at the track,” she says. “I would ask a lot of questions, because I was pretty new to track compared to them. And they would just say, ‘Ana, just shut up and run.’ And so they started calling me Analytics at the track.”

A New Analytical Mindset

Bozovic’s work stands out for its focus on underlying market drivers rather than surface metrics. “Anybody can tell you the median price of a house in Miami-Dade County,” she notes. “But a price is just a snapshot in time. That’s all it is. It doesn’t tell you what got it there.”

Her method centers on identifying fundamental market drivers to understand not just what happened, but why it happened and where trends are heading. “If you can identify the primary drivers with confidence, then you can anticipate how that momentum will keep moving forward,” she explains.

This approach has been especially useful in understanding the post-COVID transformation. “COVID was this cataclysmic event that created a new era in many ways. There’s a very distinct before and after to the pre- and post-COVID eras.”

Luxury Growth and Affordability Challenges

Bozovic’s recent analysis reveals a sharp split in Miami’s real estate market, with luxury properties seeing unprecedented growth while affordable housing becomes scarcer. The data shows significant market change.

“We see a sharp change at high prices per square foot and high overall dollar value,” she says. “Single-family houses past $3,000 a square foot didn’t exist before COVID. In 2018-2019, there was one. We’re up 300-400%—there were basically none, and now there are many.”

This trend extends to other price points. At $2,000 per square foot, sales volume has increased by roughly 700%. “We’re up so much that there’s literally activity at price points that did not exist pre-COVID,” Bozovic notes.

The ultra-luxury segment has also hit new records. Through Q3 data, Miami has already surpassed previous years in sales above $30 million.

Tracking Demographic Shifts

Behind these numbers is a demographic shift that Bozovic has traced through census data. Her research shows a direct correlation between tax policy and interstate migration.

“I downloaded the raw data and created an infographic showing the top 10 winners and top 10 losers in net interstate migration,” she explains. “I added a column showing top marginal tax rates for those jurisdictions, to see if there was a correlation. And it was so strong, that’s all you need to know.”

The data shows Florida and Texas, both with no state income tax, as the biggest winners, while California and New York, with high tax rates, were the biggest losers. “It’s actual taxpayers leaving high-tax states that were blue states that happened to be high-lockdown states,” Bozovic observes.

This migration has serious implications for tax revenue in both origin and destination states. “Your top 1% of taxpayers account for almost 50% of your tax revenue in high-tax jurisdictions. So you lose 10% of them, you’ve decimated your tax base, you create snowball effects.”

Wealth Concentration and Market Impact

Bozovic’s analysis also looks at broader wealth concentration trends. She references Warren Buffett’s observation about how technology amplifies wealth disparities: “In an agrarian economy 100 years ago in America, if you were super smart and motivated, you would be richer than your neighbor, but not 1,000 times richer than your neighbor. Then when technology came, a small percentage separates itself further.”

This trend is increasing with artificial intelligence and technology. “It’s a smaller and smaller percentage of people who are going to have outsized benefits while the rest are using the internet primarily for entertainment,” she notes, pointing to statistics showing that the average American reads below a sixth-grade level.

Sustainability and Outlook

The sustainability of Miami’s luxury market depends on several factors. The advantages that attracted initial migration remain in place and are strengthening. Miami’s luxury market, despite reaching new price levels, is still competitive with other high-cost markets.

“Our luxury market, even though currently we’re at price points that didn’t exist before, is still significantly less expensive than New York City, for example,” Bozovic explains. “We know that people will pay more because they have in other places.”

The supply side also supports continued growth. Construction costs and land values make it “virtually impossible to deliver condo product to sell to the consumer below $1,000 a foot.” Most new projects are pricing at $1,200 per square foot or higher, with only limited exceptions.

The quality and sophistication of new development have also increased. “What’s being built in the pipeline right now is at a higher standard than what was built 10 years ago, because the status of the region has gone up. The architects are coming in from other places, and it’s explicitly catered to the people who are coming from these more expensive places.”

Bringing Transparency to Pre-Construction

Recognizing the opacity of Miami’s pre-construction market, Bozovic is launching Miami Deal Sheet, described as “Miami and South Florida’s only institutional-level advisory for residential real estate.” The platform will focus on pre-construction sales, addressing a significant information gap.

“When it comes to the pre-construction market, you cannot do your homework,” she explains. “Pre-construction properties are largely not in the MLS, and they’re very opaque. If you’re a consumer that wants to spend X dollars on whatever it is that you want, you cannot do your research.”

The new platform will provide analysis of the development pipeline, including developer track records, financing status, delivery timelines, and quality assessments, information currently unavailable to most consumers and even many real estate professionals.

A Lasting Shift in Miami’s Market

Bozovic’s research suggests that Miami’s transformation is more than a temporary shift. The forces driving high-net-worth migration, tax policy, quality of life, business climate, and infrastructure, are likely to continue strengthening Miami’s role as a wealth destination.

“I strongly believe that we’re going to keep receiving domestic wealth and talent migration because the forces that are driving actual taxpaying Americans away from high-tax states are only going to keep building,” she concludes.

For real estate professionals, investors, and developers, understanding these dynamics is essential for navigating Miami’s evolving market. As traditional price categories become obsolete and new segments emerge, data-driven analysis is crucial for informed decision-making in one of America’s most dynamic real estate markets.

Miami’s evolution from a seasonal destination to a global wealth hub marks a significant economic shift in recent American history. Through rigorous analysis, professionals like Bozovic are helping the industry understand not just what is happening, but why it’s happening and where it is likely to lead.