2026: A Filtering Year for Developers

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

12 Mar 2026

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Miami’s residential development market is entering a phase where the difference between committed developers and those seeking short-term gains will become clear, according to industry leaders preparing for a softer sales environment.

After several years of pandemic-driven demand and rapid migration, the market has shifted decisively in favor of buyers. Experienced developers do not see this cooling period as a crisis, but rather as a test of operational credibility – a time when only those with long-term strategies will continue to build.

Olzhas Ayazbayev, CEO of BI Group USA, expects 2026 to be the year when market conditions force this separation. He anticipates that developers with genuine long-term plans will distinguish themselves from those treating Miami as a quick-turn opportunity. “When the water goes away, you see who was swimming without underwear,” Ayazbayev says, referencing a well-known Warren Buffett phrase to describe how the market will expose unprepared operators.

Buyers Take the Lead

Miami’s residential market has cooled steadily since its pandemic peak, with buyers now holding most of the leverage. Ayazbayev describes the current environment as a clear buyer’s market. He acknowledges the slowdown but rejects the idea that Miami is facing a speculative bubble about to burst.

“It’s a buyer’s market, so there was definitely a cooling-down effect already since COVID in Miami,” Ayazbayev says. “But it’s not to say that there is no opportunity. I don’t believe in the bubble signals in Miami because I see the weekly sales that we have.”

This distinction matters for developers. A bubble implies an imminent correction and sharp price declines, while a cooling market signals a return to balance after an unsustainable surge. Developers who see the current phase as normalization can stick to their project timelines and pricing strategies. Those expecting a crash may delay or restructure their projects.

BI Group’s strategy is grounded in confidence that Miami’s fundamentals remain solid, even as sales slow. The company tracks weekly transaction data across submarkets to confirm that enough demand exists to support new development. Still, Ayazbayev acknowledges that 2026 will challenge developers in ways not seen during the recent boom. “2026 is going to be a very challenging year, but also an exciting year,” he says.

International Developers Face a Credibility Test

For international developers, the current market presents both heightened risk and opportunity. Foreign operators often face skepticism from lenders, equity partners, and buyers in the U.S., who scrutinize cross-border entrants more closely than domestic firms.

During boom times, this credibility gap is less important because strong demand supports most projects. In a buyer’s market, however, confidence in a developer’s ability to deliver becomes crucial. International developers without local track records will find it harder to turn buyer interest into closed sales.

Ayazbayev sees this as an opportunity for serious international firms to demonstrate their commitment. Developers who keep building when others pull back can show they are invested for the long haul, not just chasing a hot market. “We are 100% focused on showing that we, as an international developer, are here in this market, and we are real,” he says. “We’re not here just for one or two projects. We have a long-term vision in both markets.”

By moving forward during a slowdown, foreign developers can build trust with lenders and partners that will benefit them in future cycles. This approach, Ayazbayev argues, will speed up the credibility-building process that international firms need to compete with established U.S. developers.

Execution as a Market Signal

BI Group’s 2026 plan centers on delivering projects rather than aggressively expanding or pursuing new acquisitions. The company is set to break ground on its first Miami project within two months, with a second Brickell project scheduled to start four months later. In Houston, BI Group already has one project under construction, targeting completion by year-end.

Focusing on execution sends a clear message: BI Group represents patient, long-term capital, not short-term speculative money. This distinction is important in Miami, which has attracted large amounts of international investment in recent years, making it hard for market participants to distinguish between sustainable and opportunistic developers.

Ayazbayev sees execution as the only way for international developers to build lasting relationships and trust in the U.S. Without a local track record, foreign firms must prove themselves through completed projects rather than relying on credentials from their home markets. “Our goal is to become local through execution of the first project, through establishing the right relationships, getting the trust from the client, from the lenders, from the market,” he says.

The company is prepared for the possibility that these first projects may face tougher sales environments than initially expected. However, Ayazbayev believes the long-term credibility gained by delivering in a challenging market outweighs any short-term revenue setbacks.

Real-Time Market Adjustments

While BI Group remains committed to its Miami plans, the company is not ignoring market realities. Ayazbayev describes the firm as “very data-driven,” with weekly market analysis guiding tactical decisions.

This regular review allows BI Group to adjust pricing, marketing, or sales strategies quickly in response to changing conditions. This approach contrasts with developers who either stick rigidly to their initial strategy or abandon projects entirely when the market cools.

“We have to be flexible and see the market trends of what’s happening,” Ayazbayev says. “We closely monitor the data to make the right decisions at the right time.”

This active management is especially important as 2026 approaches. Unlike in stronger market years, developers can no longer assume that demand will automatically follow new project launches. Ongoing analysis and flexibility are necessary to keep projects viable and on track.

Waterfront Projects Remain a Priority

Despite the market slowdown, BI Group is keeping its focus on premium products in Miami, specifically waterfront projects or sites with water views. The company believes that high-end units in prime locations will continue to attract buyers, even as overall demand cools.

“In Miami, we are evaluating projects that are all waterfront, or at least have some views to the water,” Ayazbayev says. “Our goal is to get a project with waterfront views.”

This focus reflects BI Group’s assessment that the downturn will affect different segments unevenly. While mid-market condos may struggle, luxury waterfront properties are likely to see continued interest from buyers who are less sensitive to broader economic shifts.

What’s Next

The combination of a cooling market, a commitment to execution, and a focus on premium products positions BI Group to benefit from what Ayazbayev calls a filtering process. Developers without real long-term strategies will be exposed as market conditions test their ability to deliver.

For international developers, this environment provides a rare chance to close the credibility gap with local operators. By executing projects when others pause or exit, foreign firms can demonstrate the persistence and capability that lenders and partners look for.

Miami’s cooling market does not signal a crisis, but rather a maturation period where serious developers separate themselves from short-term capital. For those willing to build through softer conditions, this is an opportunity to establish the track records and relationships that underpin long-term success in South Florida’s highly competitive market.