In Vermont's Chittenden County, Housing Demand Continues to Outpace Supply

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

07 May 2026

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While home values have softened and transaction volumes slowed across much of the country, Vermont’s most densely populated region has followed its own path. Chittenden County — anchored by Burlington and its surrounding communities — has maintained housing demand that continues to outpace supply, driven by factors that extend well beyond interest-rate sensitivity.

Joe Villemaire, Founder and Managing Broker of Rockstar Real Estate Collective, has worked in this market for over a decade across both sales and property management. Running a brokerage, managing a 54-unit rental portfolio, and developing new residential inventory simultaneously gives him a ground-level view that national data often misses.

A Market That Bends Without Breaking

Vermont has historically shown some insulation from the volatility that ripples through larger metro markets. That pattern held through the post-pandemic correction, though not without its own disruptions

Chittenden County saw average annual appreciation of 26% for two consecutive years during the pandemic — a pace that effectively doubled some home values in a short window. A condo that sold for $180,000 to $190,000 before COVID was fetching $350,000 to $385,000 shortly after. Entry-level condos now start in the $250,000 to $400,000 range for a basic two-bedroom unit, a price point that feels modest by Boston or New York standards but represents a significant jump for the local market.

The drivers behind that run-up were familiar: remote work migration, low inventory, and Vermont’s appeal as a lower-density alternative to major northeastern cities. “Vermont was kind of classified as a haven state, and we saw a huge influx of people from surrounding cities,” Villemaire says.

Where the Market Stands Now

The intensity of recent years has given way to more balanced conditions. Multiple-offer situations — which were routine during the peak, sometimes drawing 15 to 20 competing bids on a single listing — have largely subsided.

Buyers can now request inspections, appraisals, and seller assistance with closing costs — protections that were effectively off the table during the bidding wars. “We haven’t seen that since pre-COVID,” Villemaire says. “It’s great to get back to a time where you can feel confident writing an offer for a buyer, knowing you’re protecting them in every way you can.”

During the peak, Villemaire was having candid conversations with buyers about whether entering the market made sense at all. Some chose to wait, and many found themselves in a meaningfully better position when they returned. That expectation-setting approach is central to how Rockstar operates — the brokerage runs almost entirely on referrals and repeat clients, with 94 to 95 percent of business coming from that base.

The Rental Market: Tight and Getting Tighter

While the sales market has loosened, the rental side remains severely constrained. The national average vacancy rate sits around 6%. In the Burlington area, it has hovered between 1% and 2% for the better part of a decade. Even with 400 to 600 new apartment units added annually over the past six years — and one recent year seeing roughly 735 new units come online — the vacancy rate has only crept up to around 2.8%.

“Every year we keep thinking this is going to slow things down,” Villemaire notes. “And yes, we’ve seen it drop out a little bit. But for us, we’re 100% occupied all the time.”

Demand is sustained by continued in-migration, a major employer at UVM Medical Center, growing employment in the tech sector, and the region’s general lifestyle draw. Larger developments are taking somewhat longer to fill, but smaller, well-maintained properties with responsive management are seeing no softness.

Villemaire’s approach to property management — same-day or next-day maintenance response, below-market rents where possible, and a focus on tenant retention — has created an unexpected pipeline for his sales business. Multiple former tenants are now on their second or third property purchase through Rockstar.

An Integrated Model With a Practical Edge

The combination of brokerage and property management under one roof has created operational advantages that are difficult to replicate. During the most competitive years, clients who needed to sell before they could buy faced a near-impossible situation — a sale contingency was essentially disqualifying in a multi-offer environment.

Villemaire’s solution was straightforward: sell the property, move the client into one of his rental units on a flexible short-term basis, and let them compete as an unencumbered buyer. He is now expanding that capability by developing furnished units specifically designed for clients in transition — people between closings who need a turnkey, short-term option without the friction of moving furniture in and out of storage.

The Headwinds Worth Watching

Despite the local market’s relative strength, affordability pressures are building beneath the surface. Property taxes are a consistent source of friction. The compounding effect of higher home prices, elevated interest rates, rising cost of living, and above-average property taxes has pushed a segment of younger buyers out of the market entirely.

“When interest rates double, property taxes are increasing, and the cost of living is going up — everything compounds onto that person, and pretty much kicks them out of the market,” Villemaire explains.

The pressure is also pushing some longer-term Vermont residents toward the exits. Villemaire has watched clients who purchased multiple properties in the state begin selling and relocating to the Carolinas or Florida, where a home that sells for $700,000 in Vermont might have a comparable equivalent at $300,000 to $400,000, with property taxes at roughly 30% of what they would pay in Vermont.

On the rental side, those same tax increases create a pass-through problem. A significant property tax hike on a 54-unit building can translate into a $50,000 annual increase in operating expenses, ultimately passed on to tenants through higher rents. The cycle is self-reinforcing: rising rents reduce the financial incentive to buy, but rising ownership costs reduce the ability to do so anyway.

What Comes Next

Looking into the remainder of 2026, the Vermont market appears stable but not without risk. Broader economic uncertainty is making some buyers more cautious, and affordability constraints continue to limit the pool of qualified first-time buyers. Inventory is gradually improving, which is helping restore normalcy to the transaction process.

For the market to remain healthy over the longer term, the property tax question will likely need more attention from policymakers. In the meantime, Vermont’s combination of lifestyle appeal, employment anchors, and constrained housing supply continues to support demand in ways that operate somewhat independently of national trends. Whether that insulation holds through another economic cycle may depend less on housing fundamentals and more on whether the cost of staying in Vermont remains justifiable for middle-income households already stretched thin.

About the Expert: Joe Villemaire is the founder and managing broker of Rockstar Real Estate Collective, a Vermont-based brokerage and property management firm with over a decade of experience in the Chittenden County market.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.