Florida's Real Estate Market Through the Eyes of Flagler County's Garrett Decker

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

17 Jun 2025

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“Real estate is more stressful than being a cop,” says Garrett Decker, a former sheriff’s deputy who now serves as Broker Associate at NextHome Endless Summer. This surprising comparison immediately captures the intensity of today’s Florida housing market through the eyes of someone who has experienced both professions firsthand.

From Badge to Broker: An Unconventional Career Path

Decker’s journey to real estate began with a family vacation that changed everything. “I was a cop in Colorado, just having our fourth kid, and we’re like, what are we doing?” he recalls. “We came to Florida on vacation and thought, ‘Well, the kids can run around naked in the sand, in the sun.'” That lighthearted observation led to a major life decision, with the family relocating to Florida in 2019.

With a background that includes eight and a half years in the Marine Corps and wildland firefighting with the Forest Service in Arizona, Decker was no stranger to adaptation. However, his timing proved challenging: “I was new to real estate, working for a builder, and a few months later, everything shuts down,” he says, referring to the pandemic’s onset.

Despite this turbulent start, Decker has thrived. Now covering territory from Flagler County through St. Johns and Duval counties with his wife co-owning an office network spanning from Jacksonville to Brevard County he offers a comprehensive perspective on Northeast Florida’s real estate landscape.

The Lock-In Effect: A Mathematical Reality

One of the most significant factors shaping today’s market is what economists call the “lock-in effect” homeowners reluctant to sell because they’d be trading low mortgage rates for significantly higher ones.

“Many people are staying in their homes because they’re not getting what they want for their properties,” Decker explains. ” They were valued at a much higher rate when they bought and the rates were low. Now they realize they’ll be paying almost the same amount for a new house, but with higher interest rates, so they’re effectively paying twice as much.”

This creates a powerful disincentive to move, especially when competing with new construction. “Builders are offering closing costs incentives and lower interest rates on mortgages that existing homes can’t match,” Decker points out, noting that new construction comprises approximately 30% of home sales in the region.

Who’s Selling and Why: Three Key Groups

Despite these challenges, properties are still changing hands. Decker identifies several distinct seller categories:

Military Families: “We deal with many veterans and military families who are PCSing to other stations,” Decker explains. Many sell unnecessarily because they’re unaware they can maintain their current property as a rental while purchasing at their new location using VA loans.

Downsizers: Empty-nesters and others looking to reduce their housing footprint represent a significant portion of sellers, often prompted by life changes such as children moving away.

Climate Migrants: Perhaps most revealing is the trend of homeowners relocating due to repeated flooding events. “Many people have moved because of flooding, particularly in the Volusia County area,” Decker notes. “Numerous homeowners in Port Orange and Daytona Beach have experienced flooding two or three times, and they’re saying, ‘I’m not doing this again.'”

While FEMA has provided grants for home elevation in flood-prone areas, many homeowners prefer to relocate entirely. “Some people simply don’t want to experience that trauma again,” Decker observes.

Supply Dynamics: A Tale of Two Markets

Florida’s housing supply presents a complex picture with stark differences between property types:

Condo Market Challenges: Florida’s condominium market faces unique hurdles following recent reform legislation. Many condo associations are struggling with substantial restoration requirements without adequate reserves, resulting in massive special assessments that many owners on fixed incomes cannot afford.

Single-Family Home Inventory: The data tells a nuanced story across the region:
– St. Johns County: 2,632 active listings (18% increase from previous year), with closed sales down 7.4%
– Volusia County: Over 3,500 active homes for sale, with a 7.3% drop in sales
– Flagler County/Palm Coast: 670 active listings with closed sales up 0.8% from the previous year
– Florida overall: Nearly 120,000 active listings with closed sales down 4.5%

The Shadow Inventory: Approved But Unbuilt

As a member of the planning and land development board for Palm Coast, Decker offers unique insight into a little-discussed aspect of future supply: approved but not-yet-built developments.

“Projects that have been approved for years throughout the state haven’t started yet,” he reveals. “Developers may get approval and then sell it off to someone else, or they might wait until their other developments sell out, or to see how market conditions evolve.”

This pipeline represents potential future inventory that could enter the market when conditions are favorable. Concerns about potential building moratoriums, particularly related to flooding issues, also factor into development timelines.

Buyer Psychology: The Interest Rate Fixation

When it comes to buyer sentiment, Decker believes most potential purchasers are focused on the wrong variable.

“I don’t think buyers are waiting for prices to decrease,” he observes. “Most are focused on interest rates, expecting them to come down.”

However, this strategy may backfire: “If interest rates decrease significantly, home sellers will likely raise their prices due to increased buyer demand and population growth.”

His practical advice cuts through the complexity: “Buy now at current prices, and if interest rates decrease, you can refinance later. People are fixated on interest rates instead of focusing on home prices and the equity they could be building rather than renting.”

Demographic Evolution: Florida’s Changing Face

Florida’s reputation as primarily a retirement destination is rapidly evolving, particularly in Decker’s market area.

“Flagler County was known as a retirement community, but that’s no longer accurate,” he states. “People of all ages are moving to Palm Coast, and Volusia County is experiencing significant growth across demographic groups.”

The simultaneous growth in school construction and 55+ communities in St. Johns County demonstrates the area’s increasingly broad demographic appeal, attracting both young families and retirees.

Investment Opportunity: Palm Coast’s Regulatory Advantage

For investors, Decker highlights a specific opportunity in the Palm Coast market: short-term rentals.

“Palm Coast currently offers one of the best investment opportunities for short-term rentals,” he advises. “Many surrounding counties and cities have restricted short-term rentals, but Flagler County and Palm Coast specifically haven’t implemented similar restrictions.”

This regulatory advantage, combined with Palm Coast’s proximity to major events in Daytona Beach (just 30 minutes away), creates attractive investment potential for those seeking vacation rental properties.

Making Homeownership Accessible: Underutilized Programs

Despite market challenges, various assistance programs can help make homeownership more attainable, though awareness remains limited.

“We partner with Volusia County, which offers numerous down payment assistance programs for first-time homebuyers and people in lower-income areas,” Decker shares. State programs like Hometown Heroes and the Live Local Act provide additional support, along with county and city-specific initiatives.

Final Advice: Take Action Now

Despite the complexities of today’s market, Decker’s advice to potential buyers is refreshingly straightforward: make an offer.

“Sellers are willing to negotiate right now,” he encourages. “There’s substantial inventory available in existing homes, making it an opportune time to make offers. The worst outcome is they say no.”

In a market navigating high interest rates, changing demographics, climate concerns, and evolving housing preferences, this practical approach reminds us that in real estate, as in life, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.