In Buffalo, New York, Neighborhood Reinvestment and Rising Costs Are Reshaping Who Can Buy

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

13 May 2026

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After more than a decade of reinvestment in formerly industrial and overlooked neighborhoods, Buffalo’s real estate market is entering a new phase. Infrastructure projects, rising property taxes, and institutional purchasing activity are all converging at once, creating both opportunity and friction for buyers and sellers across Erie County. For agents working on the ground, navigating this landscape requires more than market data. It requires deep local roots.

Jamie Gugino, a realtor with eXp Realty operating under the Scott Realty Group banner, brings an unusual combination of backgrounds to the work. Trained in architecture at Hutch Tech in downtown Buffalo before studying at the University at Buffalo, Gugino graduated with a degree in English and creative writing. She obtained her real estate license during the pandemic in 2020, spent time building her knowledge base before actively practicing, and has been working full-time in the field for the past 2.5 years.

Scott Realty Group itself holds significance in the local market. The father-and-son team is recognized as one of the first Black-owned real estate agencies in Buffalo, a distinction that speaks to the firm’s place in the community’s history.

A City Rebuilding Itself

Buffalo has been in a period of steady reinvestment, and Gugino sees that momentum reflected in buyer interest across the city. Downtown revitalization, the redevelopment of Larkin Square, and the new Bills stadium are all drawing attention to areas that were previously overlooked. “That area might see home values go up just because of the activity around it,” she notes.

Community-driven programming, like the Food Truck Tuesdays at Larkin Square, has helped draw residential interest to former mixed-use industrial zones. According to Gugino, these kinds of neighborhood anchors are attracting new residents who hadn’t previously considered those parts of the city. The result is a broadening map of viable neighborhoods for buyers across a range of budgets, from Buffalo proper to Amherst, Cheektowaga, and Tonawanda.

The 40-Year-Old Buyer

The demographic profile of buyers in the Buffalo market has also changed. Gugino points to a statistic she encountered during an industry training session: the average first-time homebuyer in the United States is now 40 years old. “I think that’s crazy compared to how it used to be,” she says.

She recently closed a transaction with a couple in their early 30s and described them as something of an exception. Most young buyers, she explains, are weighed down by existing expenses and haven’t been able to save in an economy marked by instability and the lingering effects of the pandemic.

Gugino’s interest in first-time buyers is partly personal. She purchased her own home at 26 using a private loan with a high interest rate, driven by a need for stability after moving more than 25 times between the ages of 16 and 24. “I paid a lot more for that house than I probably should have,” she reflects. “I wanted to guide people to not fall into a trap as I did.”

That experience shapes how she works with clients today. Beyond the transaction itself, she provides new homeowners with a detailed resource list covering everything from nearby grocery stores and pharmacies to city hall contacts and local service providers. The goal is to help buyers feel settled immediately rather than overwhelmed by the logistics of a new neighborhood.

Inventory, Institutional Buyers, and Market Complexity

While national conversations have focused on inventory loosening in suburban markets, Gugino describes the local picture as more complicated. Listing counts have risen, but buyer activity hasn’t kept pace. Part of the explanation, she suggests, lies with institutional purchasing. Large corporate buyers are absorbing properties that might otherwise go to individuals, a concern raised at recent industry meetings where agents discussed ways to prevent market concentration.

This dynamic hits first-time buyers hardest, particularly those already navigating tight budgets and complex financing requirements. Gugino also points to a proposed 25% increase in Buffalo’s property tax as an emerging pressure point. “When buyers go to close on a house, they’re going to be paying a little bit more,” she says. “We already live in an economy where everybody’s struggling. We want actual people to buy homes and keep these communities running.”

Managing Seller Expectations

Seller psychology presents its own challenges. Some homeowners remain anchored to the price levels seen during the pandemic peak, when comparable properties sold well above historical norms. Gugino’s approach is to walk sellers through a comparative market analysis that shows what properties are actually closing for today, rather than relying on memories of a different cycle. “You have to tell your client, this is a different market right now,” she says. “This is more realistic.”

She has encountered sellers who bought at elevated prices and now find themselves unable to move because their home’s current value won’t cover the cost of their next purchase. The gap between what they owe and what the market will return has effectively locked them in place.

When deals do fall apart, inspections are the most common cause. Sellers unwilling to make repairs and buyers whose financing depends on certain conditions being met create friction that can unwind otherwise solid transactions. Gugino also notes that first-time buyers occasionally lose expected grants late in the process, which can significantly alter the financial picture just before closing.

Looking Ahead

As Buffalo’s market continues to absorb new infrastructure investment, rising costs, and changing buyer demographics, the path forward remains uncertain. Institutional purchasing pressure, potential tax increases, and lingering affordability concerns could slow the momentum that reinvestment has built over the past decade. At the same time, the broadening map of desirable neighborhoods suggests there is still room for individual buyers to find entry points, particularly with agents who understand the specific dynamics of each community.

Gugino is keeping an eye on commercial real estate as a potential growth area, viewing new construction activity as a signal worth tracking. But her primary focus remains on first-time buyers navigating an increasingly complex process. “You’re making someone’s dream come true,” she says. “Make sure you choose a good agent that’s there for you, that’s going to answer your questions and guide you along the way.”

About the Expert: Jamie Gugino is a Realtor with eXp Realty operating under the Scott Realty Group banner in Buffalo, New York. She obtained her real estate license in 2020 and has been working full-time in the field for approximately 2.5 years, with a background in architecture and English from the University at Buffalo.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.