Manhattan’s residential real estate market has long moved in predictable cycles, with busy spring seasons and slower holidays. This year, however, Ann Ferguson, principal broker and founder of Ann Ferguson, LLC, observed an unexpected spike in activity in November, typically a slowdown.
“For some weird reason in November the market picked up, and that is very unusual because usually we find the fall very busy and then the spring very busy,” Ferguson says. “But the market became bustling in November, which is the beginning of the holidays, which never happened before.”
This timing break suggests that buyers are responding to factors beyond the usual calendar. The November surge, Ferguson notes, did not align with the traditional seasonal rhythm. Instead, she points to two significant events that coincided with the uptick: a drop in interest rates and the conclusion of a contentious mayoral election.
Ferguson explains that the market’s energy changed after the election, as interest rates began to decline. “The decision was made, the election was done, so consumers were more confident and ready to buy or sell,” she says. According to Ferguson, even those who disagreed with the election result moved forward, suggesting that certainty itself — rather than the outcome — was the main driver.
The implication is clear: buyers who had postponed decisions during the election cycle re-entered the market once uncertainty lifted. When combined with lower borrowing costs, this created a burst of activity at a time when brokers typically expect a lull.
What sets this recent pattern apart is its persistence. Rather than fading after the holidays, the elevated activity continued into the new year. “Now it’s still maintained even in January with snow and everything. It’s still happening,” Ferguson says. “It’s a very active market. I’m not saying it’s going to skyrocket high. It’s just active and on a level that we haven’t seen last year in the fall.”
This steadiness suggests a shift in buyer psychology. Instead of frantic, speculative surges, Ferguson describes a market with consistent transaction volume, activity that feels sustainable rather than overheated. The ongoing momentum raises questions about the relevance of traditional seasonal forecasting. If buyers are now more likely to act in response to political developments or interest rate changes, the familiar spring rush may no longer be guaranteed.
Ferguson’s firm, which employs 20 agents and emphasizes a boutique approach, has experienced these changes firsthand. She describes 2023 as a year marked by a busy first half, followed by a slowdown, then a sudden November rebound. “We had a hectic first six months of the year, then it kind of tapered off and got slow” before the surge, she says. This pattern indicates a market that is more responsive to specific triggers than to the calendar.
Another notable feature is that the November surge happened despite high inventory levels. Ferguson describes the current environment as a buyer’s market, with ample listings. “I’m finding a lot of inventory. I’m finding that this is a buyer’s market,” she says. Typically, an abundance of inventory would mean buyers take longer to decide. Still, the recent burst of deals suggests that timing and confidence are outweighing the urge to wait for the perfect property.
This disconnect between inventory and transaction speed indicates that buyers are willing to act quickly when they sense favorable conditions, such as lower rates or greater certainty, rather than waiting for the spring market or the ideal listing.
Looking ahead, Ferguson expects lower interest rates to push prices up and drive more activity in the spring. She bases this outlook on industry discussions, including meetings at the Real Estate Board of New York. “With the lowering interest rates, prices will go up,” she says, adding, “I think now’s the perfect time to buy,” since she anticipates that the current window of opportunity may close as prices adjust.
The coming months will reveal whether the November surge was a one-off event or evidence of a broader change in buyer behavior. If the spring market brings the usual increase in activity, November may be remembered as an anomaly. But if buyers continue to respond to macroeconomic and political events, Manhattan brokers may need to adjust how they forecast and advise clients.
Ferguson is optimistic that spring will bring vigorous activity, as it has in years past. “I have a strong feeling based on current market activity that there’s a lot of activity and that the lowest interest rates will spur the market into an excellent spring,” she says. Still, the unusual November surge may be an early sign that long-standing seasonal patterns are already giving way to a new set of buyer priorities, ones that are more responsive to external events than to the traditional real estate calendar.
For now, Manhattan’s market is moving on a new schedule, one set less by the time of year than by the confidence of its buyers.
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