Pandemic-Era Moves Leave Florida with a Thinner Buyer Pipeline Today

Written by:

Rudi Davis

Date:

17 Nov 2025

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The surge of northeastern residents moving to Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic did not create new demand but instead accelerated existing plans by several years, according to Bradley Hurst, an agent with Illustrated Properties. Hurst argues that this “cannibalization” effect explains why migration has slowed significantly in recent years, and he suggests Florida markets will need to adjust their expectations for future buyer activity from traditional feeder markets.

Hurst, a seven-year industry veteran recognized in the Real Producers top 1.5% nationally, sees the current migration slowdown as a result of demand being pulled forward. “It’s cooled off. The numbers support that it’s cooled off,” Hurst said. He challenges the idea that Florida has lost its appeal, arguing instead that the state experienced an artificial surge in migration as people who were already planning to move sped up their timelines during the pandemic.

This slowdown, he explains, is not because Florida is less attractive, but because the pandemic condensed what would have been several years of migration into a much shorter period. The result is a temporary dip, not a permanent change in desirability.

According to Hurst, COVID-19 acted as a catalyst for migration rather than the root cause. “What happened with COVID was it just accelerated people’s plans. They didn’t all of a sudden decide to move to Florida – they had been thinking about it. COVID just accelerated that,” he said.

He points out that many buyers who would have moved in 2023, 2024, or 2025 made their moves during the pandemic. “Some of those people might have been waiting until 2023, 24, 25, and they just took the leap during COVID. So, you’re going to have some – I guess you could call it cannibalism – where those people have already moved down, so it’s going to skew the numbers a little bit.”

Hurst’s theory suggests that the post-pandemic migration slowdown is a natural correction after an unsustainable spike, not evidence of weakening demand overall.

Despite the cooling, Hurst expects migration to Florida to continue at a steady pace, driven by the state’s climate, lifestyle, and tax advantages. He points to seasonal factors that continue to influence relocation decisions. “Right today, it’s in the 40s here. Imagine how cold it is up north. They’re going to see their friends posting on Facebook that they’re out golfing or at the beach,” he said.

However, he does not anticipate a return to the elevated migration rates seen from 2020 to 2022. “I think we’re going to get back to more normal levels,” Hurst said, referring to migration patterns that resemble those before the pandemic rather than the spike during it.

Recent political developments, such as changes in New York City leadership, have sparked speculation about renewed migration waves. Hurst, however, is cautious about overestimating the impact of political shifts. “There’s a lot of talk about politics with the mayor in New York City. I don’t think that’s going to have quite the impact that other people think. It’ll be similar to COVID on a smaller scale – people who already wanted to leave may see it as the final straw.”

When political factors do drive migration, Hurst expects it to be concentrated among higher-income buyers. “You’re going to get more ultra-successful business owners who lean more to the Republican side. They look at Florida and see no state income tax. They like more of the politics down here. They like that Florida is a very free state.”

He notes that this demographic shift highlights how Florida has evolved from an affordable retirement destination to a premium lifestyle market. “Affordability for the average everyday person is not what it used to be in places like Jupiter and Tequesta,” Hurst said.

The cannibalization effect has significant implications for real estate planning. Rather than expecting a return to the extraordinary migration levels seen during COVID, markets should prepare for more sustainable, baseline growth, supplemented by specific demographic groups responding to economic or political triggers.

Hurst’s analysis suggests that Florida markets heavily reliant on northeastern migration may need to diversify their buyer base or adjust their expectations for transaction volume. The COVID-era boom was likely a one-time acceleration, not a permanent increase, and markets must recalibrate strategies for long-term health.

Looking ahead, Hurst remains optimistic about Florida’s continued appeal but stresses the need for realistic expectations. The combination of lifestyle, tax benefits, and remote work will keep attracting buyers, but at rates more consistent with historical trends rather than the surge of the pandemic years.

For Jupiter, Tequesta, and similar markets, this normalization could lead to more stable and predictable growth, reducing the volatility of boom-and-bust migration cycles and supporting healthier long-term market dynamics.