The Reality of Central Florida's Real Estate Numbers

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

14 Oct 2025

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Central Florida’s real estate market is undergoing what Matthew Buckley describes as a “correction” rather than a crash, a distinction that matters for both buyers and sellers navigating today’s environment. As leader and founder of The Buckley Group at LPT Realty, Buckley has seen the market shift from the intense pandemic-era buying frenzy to a more balanced setting.

Recent numbers illustrate this transition. In New Smyrna Beach, a market Buckley closely monitors, homes have sold for an average of $547,890 compared to $576,909 a year ago, representing 95% of previous values. “When you look at a $10 candy bar, if you sold that for 95% of the value for $9.50, that’s a good sale,” Buckley notes. “But we tend to forget about the evaluation and calculation on a bigger purchase price, and it makes very good headlines for newspapers and Zillow.”

Buckley’s Unconventional Path to Real Estate

Buckley’s journey into real estate began in an unexpected way. After high school, he moved to Hollywood with hopes of a modeling career. When that didn’t pan out, he returned home and briefly attended college before realizing traditional education wasn’t his path.

A chance encounter with a former baseball coach set him on a new trajectory. “He said, ‘You’re well-spoken, decent looking guy, I own a real estate company. Why don’t you come sell real estate?'” Buckley recalls. A discounted real estate course for $59 provided the entry point.

The appeal was clear: a 63-hour course with the potential to control his own earnings, rather than years of college debt. Within 38 days of getting his license, Buckley sold his first house. In his first year, he sold close to 30 homes and earned $53,000, learning valuable lessons about commission structures and mentorship along the way.

Strategic Move to LPT Realty

Recognizing the need to expand beyond his small-town market in DeBary, Florida, Buckley reached out via Instagram to Robert Palmer, a major figure in Central Florida’s mortgage industry. “I said, ‘I’m a young guy, I’m hungry, willing to hustle. Can I buy you lunch and pick your brain?'” Palmer responded quickly, leading to a meeting that changed Buckley’s career.

Three years ago, Buckley became the first agent to sign with LPT Realty, Agent 001. Today, the company operates in 50 states with 25,000 agents across three countries. “At a young age, I saw that I wanted more, I deserved more, and I was willing to do the work for more,” Buckley explains.

Understanding Current Market Dynamics

Today’s market presents unique challenges that require more analysis than surface-level statistics provide. “There are more sellers than buyers, approximately 500,000 more homes for sale than there are buyers in the market,” Buckley observes. This is a complete reversal from the pandemic period, when buyers far outnumbered available properties.

Buckley identifies “wasted inventory,” properties priced unrealistically by sellers who are reluctant to adjust to market conditions. “A lot of listing agents are taking these listings because it makes them look good, but it’s actually doing the opposite to their reputations. Your seeing expires at an all-time high, cancels at an all-time high, days on market extending beyond what anyone imagined.”

The solution, Buckley says, is honest conversations from the start. He recommends structured listing agreements with predetermined price adjustment timelines: “Within the first 30 days, if we don’t get any offers or showings, we will reduce to X. In 60 days, 90 days, having these timeline approaches prevents future arguments.”

Emergence of Situational Buyers

While Florida’s pandemic-era relocation boom, when about 750 people moved to the state daily, has slowed, a new buyer profile has emerged: situational buyers.

“People who have to divorce, distress, people having children, people getting married. The natural things in life that dictate housing,” Buckley explains. He uses a “hamburger buyer” analogy for a major market segment: those in the middle who care for aging parents above and support children below.

This demographic faces unique pressures: “Does mom have to go to a house? Is someone getting sick? Someone passed away and we have to sell? They have children going to college, not moving out of the house, getting their dream job, moving across the state.”

Investment Opportunities

For investors, current conditions offer attractive possibilities. Properties are sitting longer on the market, making sellers more motivated and open to concessions. “You’re seeing a huge inflow of investors into the market, taking up a lot of that inventory,” Buckley notes.

Investment strategies have evolved. “The old school way was you had a bunch of cash under a mattress, bought an ugly house with cash, made it pretty, and sold it for 50-70% more,” Buckley explains. “Now you can flip a house with 10% down. You can get rehab loans.”

He recommends the BRRRR method (Buy, Renovate, Refinance, Rent, Repeat): “Rather than just selling and getting rid of the asset, you buy, renovate, refinance, and keep it as a cash-flowing rental. You make the profit through refinancing while still owning the property.”

Market Indicators and Predictions

Buckley tracks a range of data points to anticipate market shifts, from Federal Reserve meetings to local economic developments. “In Deltona, Florida, in the last five years, they brought an Advent Health, a VA hospital, and an Amazon. Those are three major employers that naturally drive demand for housing.”

He believes current interest rates between 3.5% and 5.5% are within a normal range, with anything below 3% too low and above 6% too high. Upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and potential rate cuts could significantly impact buyer demand and help absorb existing inventory.

Preparing for the Next Market Cycle

Buckley’s strategy is built around preparation, not panic. “My mentor Robert always said, when you’re in the boom, you need to be preparing for the bust. And when you’re in the bust, you need to be planning for the boom.”

This philosophy shapes his approach: increasing marketing spend, sponsoring more events, and planning office expansions while others pull back. “A lot of people are pulling out of advertisement right now. I’m kind of doubling down, buying more leads, sponsoring more events, looking to open more offices.”

For buyers who struggled during the pandemic’s competitive market, current conditions offer renewed opportunity. “Those people who really didn’t have an opportunity years ago have a heightened opportunity right now. Properties are sitting, prices are coming down, sellers are getting more motivated by the day.”

The Human Side of Real Estate

Despite technological advances, Buckley emphasizes that real estate is still about relationships and solving problems. His team’s mission, rooted in memories of his family’s struggles during the 2008 financial crisis, is to prevent similar experiences for clients: “I don’t want to make them overspend or lead them in a bad direction.”

This approach, combined with adaptability to new technologies and market conditions, positions agents to thrive regardless of external factors. “Control what you can control,” Buckley advises. “Perfect your craft, make it intentional, and really plan for what is to come.”

Central Florida’s real estate correction is not a crisis but an opportunity, for prepared professionals to gain market share, for motivated buyers to find value, and for strategic investors to build long-term wealth. The key is understanding the realities behind the numbers and positioning accordingly for the next cycle.