Saskatchewan Farmland Jumped 13% Last Year - But the Boom May Be Slowing

Saskatchewan’s farmland market has delivered some of the strongest price gains in Canada over the past decade, with values rising nearly 13% last year alone. That surge nearly doubled Alberta’s 7.75% gain, driven by high crop revenues and farmers with cash to invest. But by mid-2024, the landscape has changed: commodity prices have dropped, inventory is rising, and the pace of appreciation is slowing.

Ben Van Dyk, partner at Real Estate Centre & Farm Real Estate, brokers farm sales across both provinces and says the Saskatchewan boom was closely tied to a period of strong crop pricing. “We had some really good years with crop pricing, and that built lots of cash flow into farm operations,” he says. Many farmers used that cash to expand, pushing land prices higher. Now, Van Dyk cautions, “The growth in pricing will be much slower—not negative necessarily, but much more challenging.”

Why Saskatchewan’s Farmland Boom Is Cooling

Saskatchewan’s rapid appreciation was fueled by a combination of lower starting land prices, high crop revenues, and a market dominated by active farmers. When wheat, canola, and other commodity prices were high, many operators could justify paying more per acre.

Over the past year, however, commodity prices have fallen, putting pressure on farm margins. While crop yields have increased significantly over the last 10 to 20 years—helping offset some of the revenue drop—lower prices and greater availability are starting to slow the market. Inventory has increased, with more land available for sale than in recent years.

“There’s much more available land in the marketplace,” Van Dyk says, and he expects appreciation to remain slow in Saskatchewan for the next several years unless crop prices recover.

Saskatchewan’s market is also shaped by its buyer profile. Unlike Alberta, which attracts a mix of investors from outside traditional agriculture, Saskatchewan’s buyers are almost entirely working farmers. The province’s vast land base and smaller population mean fewer outside investors and less competition when crop economics weaken.

How Alberta’s Market Stands Apart

Alberta’s farmland market has seen steadier, more moderate growth, with prices up 7.75% last year—the key difference: diversification. Alberta attracts more non-farm buyers—including bankers, accountants, and other professionals—who view farmland as a long-term investment, even when rental yields are modest.

“There’s much more non-farm buying of farmland in Alberta,” Van Dyk notes, pointing to a broader pool of buyers. This diversification helps stabilize prices when farm profits decline.

Alberta’s irrigated land has also set price records, driven by water scarcity and high demand for productive acres. Water rights in districts like St. Mary’s are increasingly limited, forcing farmers to seek irrigation elsewhere or pay premiums for parcels with secure access.

Saskatchewan, by contrast, has less developed irrigation infrastructure and attracts fewer urban-adjacent investors, making it more exposed when crop prices fall.

What’s Selling

Despite the broader slowdown, some property types are still in demand. Ranching properties, especially cow-calf operations, are highly sought after in both provinces due to strong cattle prices. “Cow-calf operations are probably the hottest commodity,” Van Dyk says. Calf prices have been favorable for several years, and the outlook remains strong over the next 3 to 4 years.

In Alberta, irrigated land continues to attract buyers, especially parcels with reliable water rights. Highly productive cropland in central Alberta is also holding its value, particularly for farmers looking to expand.

In Saskatchewan, however, larger parcels without strong cash flow potential are taking longer to sell. Buyers are more cautious, often waiting to see if commodity prices rebound before making offers. Investment buyers who were active five to ten years ago have mostly left the market, as rental returns have dropped from around 3–4% to about 1.5–2%. “Most investment companies look for much higher returns somewhere else,” Van Dyk explains.

Strategies for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers in Saskatchewan, the current market offers more negotiating power and less competition. Focus on highly productive land with good soil quality and reliable water access. Van Dyk advises against relying on last year’s prices—buyers should base their decisions on today’s crop economics.

Sellers need to price aggressively from the outset. Overpriced listings are likely to sit, especially as inventory rises. Auction or tender processes can create urgency and attract serious buyers. “People don’t want to lose out,” Van Dyk says. “It’s their opportunity to add land.”

In Alberta, sellers of irrigated land and ranch properties can still expect strong demand, but buyers remain disciplined. Properties with marginal productivity or uncertain water access are less likely to command premium prices.

Looking Ahead

Saskatchewan’s farmland boom was driven by a unique set of conditions: high crop prices, tight supply, and strong farm balance sheets. With commodity prices down and more land for sale, the market is moving into a more cautious phase. Alberta’s more diversified buyer pool and better irrigation infrastructure are helping it weather the slowdown.

Opportunities remain for both buyers and sellers, but success now depends on understanding which segments are still strong and which are cooling. As Van Dyk puts it, “You’re better off having your money work for yourself than having it just sitting in the bank.” In today’s market, informed decisions and realistic pricing are more important than ever.

About the Expert: Ben Van Dyk is Partner and Co-Managing Partner at Real Estate Centre & Farm Real Estate, operating across Alberta and Saskatchewan. He specializes in income-producing agricultural properties, including ranches, dairy farms, and irrigated cropland.

This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.