Georgia's Commercial Real Estate Market Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Shifting Investment Patterns

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

19 Sep 2025

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The commercial real estate landscape in Georgia is experiencing a notable shift as investors return with renewed confidence, according to Reid Moore, founding partner of TOA Commercial. After years of market uncertainty driven by interest rate volatility and economic headwinds, the state is witnessing increased activity across multiple asset classes, though the patterns of investment are evolving in new ways.

From Office Crisis to Market Diversification

Moore’s journey reflects the broader market’s adaptation to changing conditions. Originally focused on office properties when he launched TOA Commercial in January 2020, the firm was forced to pivot quickly when the pandemic sharply reduced office demand. “Office fell out right. Office was done, dead. No one’s leasing,” Moore recalls.

This diversification proved timely. Today, TOA Commercial operates across all major asset classes, working with groups ranging from private equity to individual investors on projects from single-family developments to large multifamily projects. This shift toward flexibility and opportunistic investing mirrors broader market trends.

Investor Sentiment Rebounds

After a period of stagnation, Moore sees renewed investor interest. “The past 12 months, we’ve started to see investor sentiment go up a little bit. Everyone was more positive,” he notes, attributing this to expectations around interest rates and economic changes.

The impact of prior rate hikes was severe. Moore recalls a deal changing by over a million dollars overnight. “It was like the faucet went off,” he explains. “I was carrying about 22 million in listings, and that just started to sit and die.”

Now, there’s capital returning. “There’s dry powder on the sidelines. They’re ready,” Moore observes, though actual transaction volume is still building.

Land Acquisition Drives Current Activity

A significant trend is strong demand for development-ready land. “My list of individuals looking for land in our state has shot through the roof,” Moore reports. This demand spans private equity to individual investors, especially in single-family residential development.

The land rush reflects demographic shifts in Georgia’s secondary and tertiary markets. Many previously rural communities are growing as residents leave urban centers and out-of-state buyers move in. “Some of these towns used to be a stop sign or one stoplight, and now they’re selling million-dollar homes,” Moore says.

However, this growth means land prices have risen, and municipalities are more selective about approvals. Local governments now cap rental properties in some areas to maintain community character.

Flight to Safety in Asset Selection

Alongside land acquisition, Moore sees investors gravitate toward “safer asset classes.” Traditional multifamily investors are increasingly seeking single-tenant net lease properties, particularly dollar stores and recession-resistant retail.

“If they were traditionally a multifamily guy, they’re now calling me and saying, ‘Hey, my friends are talking about dollar generals. Why?'” Moore explains. This shift reflects a desire for predictable cash flows and lower management intensity after market volatility.

Off-Market Distressed Asset Activity

Many markets still await a wave of distressed properties, but Moore reports such transactions in Georgia are happening off-market. “A lot of multifamily are being traded, or we’re about to see some of those close, and then that’s when you’ll actually see that it traded, because it was never hit the market.”

These assets were often bought at peak prices on aggressive projections that failed. “A lot of these private equity groups, syndicators came in and they based everything off pro forma, and they just thought rents were going to do this forever, and they didn’t,” Moore explains.

Such assets are sold directly to pre-identified buyers, often at prices “well below their five-year, seven-year projections.”

Nimble Players Lead Market Recovery

The market favors smaller, more agile investors. “Majority is actually the smaller guys who can be nimble,” Moore confirms. These vary from partnerships to local builders scaling up from single homes to larger tracts.

Many had established footholds in tertiary markets before those areas became part of greater Atlanta. “These guys already had their foot, their finger on the pulse. They were one-off builders, and now they’re taking down some tracts,” Moore notes.

Geographic Opportunities in Georgia’s Growth Corridors

Moore identifies geographic areas with strong potential, especially along major highways. Calhoun, Georgia, stands out, benefiting from SK Battery and Buc-ee’s developments.

“If you can run up any one of those highways from Atlanta, and then all of a sudden, it’s only trees, that’s where some of these opportunities are,” he explains. Moore also highlights Cartersville, Rome, Valdosta, and Brunswick as growth areas, with the latter aided by Port of Savannah expansion.

A key indicator is new single-tenant net lease developments. “When those companies build, they’re looking at all the numbers correctly,” Moore notes, making these reliable market signals.

Development Fundamentals Remain Challenging

Despite increased interest and demographic trends, development economics remain tough. “Land is high, and people are trying to make it work,” Moore explains. The constraint isn’t demand, secondary markets are “well below what we can sustain” in housing, but the math of land costs, construction expenses, and sale prices.

This affects all property types. Developers must balance acquisition costs with realistic margins, leading to more selective project pursuit.

Looking Forward

Moore’s observations suggest Georgia’s market is in a transitional phase, with renewed confidence translating to activity. The shift toward land and safer assets signals a market that’s more selective and risk-conscious but still sees long-term growth.

For investors and developers, current conditions present opportunities for those who can navigate higher land costs and tougher municipal approvals. The key is focusing on markets with job growth and demographic momentum while maintaining realistic expectations about development economics.

As Moore puts it, the market is ready—it’s simply a matter of making the numbers work in an environment where both opportunities and challenges have evolved since the pre-pandemic era.