Transaction volume across Northern Nevada’s commercial real estate market has dropped sharply, according to Ted Stoever, Executive Vice President at Colliers. Stoever attributes the slowdown to a lack of available financing, not changes in demand or property fundamentals. However, he predicts that 2026 will bring a wave of sales activity, not because credit conditions will improve, but because a large volume of multifamily loans will mature, forcing owners to either refinance or sell.
“Looking ahead to 2026, it’s all going to depend on how many of these notes come due on a lot of the multifamily,” Stoever says. “I think a lot is comingdue this year, so we’re going to see what happens as far as refinance versus sales.”
Stoever argues that the outcome of these refinancing decisions will determine the pace and nature of real estate transactions in the region for several years.
Stoever describes the current market as stalled. “Transaction velocity is all down. Everything’s down,” he says. The primary reason, he explains, is a breakdown in financing availability. “You cannot finance. There’s not much opportunity in distressed sales. You can’t find debt or equity to finance deals.”
This lack of financing has created a market where only projects with guaranteed financing can proceed. “My business is up again, because I only focus on things that I know I can get done,” he says, describing his strategy of working only on deals that he is confident can secure funding.
The upcoming wave of maturing multifamily debt, however, presents a different scenario. When loans reach maturity, owners must either secure new financing or sell the property. In the current environment, many owners may not be able to refinance on favorable terms, making sales more likely.
Interest rates remain well above the levels seen when most of the outstanding multifamily loans were originated. Many properties are now valued below the levels needed to support their existing debt. Stoever expects this will force some owners to sell rather than refinance, especially if new loan terms require more equity or higher payments.
Northern Nevada’s multifamily market is already tight, with very low vacancy and limited new supply. Stoever believes this will attract institutional buyers to any forced sales. “Institutional industrial sales will stay strong. Retail sales will be strong,” he says, predicting that 2026 will see increased activity from significant funds and real estate investment trusts (REITs) that have capital ready to deploy.
These institutional buyers are positioned to purchase properties for long-term returns rather than immediate yield. “They have got a long-term return threshold, so these guys can take down big chunks and look to the long term, less than immediate cap rates,” Stoever says.
This dynamic creates a sorting process in the market. Properties with strong fundamentals, good locations, and stable tenants will likely be able to refinance. Weaker assets that are unable to secure new loans will be sold. This process could redirect investment toward higher-quality properties and more efficient ownership.
Stoever focuses on multifamily debt maturities because this sector typically uses shorter-term loans than other commercial real estate asset types. As a result, a larger share of multifamily loans mature each year, increasing the likelihood of refinancing challenges and potential forced sales.
This timing is critical in Northern Nevada, where population growth has outpaced new housing supply. “We grew by, I want to say 110,000 people in the last 10 years,” Stoever notes, referring to roughly a 20 percent increase in a metro area of about 600,000. This growth has sustained multifamily demand, but new supply has lagged. “Multifamily, as I said, very low vacancy, very low supply coming online,” he says.
Given this imbalance, multifamily assets that come to market due to refinancing pressure should attract buyers, even if the sale prices are lower than what owners might have achieved in a more favorable financing environment.
For institutional investors assessing where to focus in 2026, Stoever’s analysis suggests that the multifamily refinancing calendar is the key variable. Whether owners can refinance or are forced to sell will shape transaction volume and price trends throughout the year.
Colliers is positioning itself to facilitate these deals by maintaining relationships with institutional buyers with available capital. “If I can show people that this was going to work, I show them the fundamentals of the area, I get stuff done,” Stoever says, outlining his approach to connecting sellers and buyers.
This approach—linking owners facing refinancing deadlines with buyers seeking long-term investments—may become a primary driver of transactions in 2026 if the expected volume of maturing debt materializes. The extent to which these refinancing events lead to increased sales will become clear in the coming quarters as more loans reach maturity.
As financing options remain limited and debt maturities accelerate, Northern Nevada’s multifamily sector stands at a critical juncture. The decisions owners make in response to maturing loans will set the pace for the region’s real estate market in 2026 and beyond.
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