Three Decades of Market Evolution: A Tucson Realtor’s Perspective on Today’s Opportunities

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

26 Feb 2026

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The Tucson real estate market stands out as a case where local conditions diverge from national trends. After a period of buyer fatigue that swept much of the country in 2024, Tucson is now seeing renewed activity and a more balanced environment that could benefit both buyers and sellers.

Tony Ray Baker, leader of The Tony Ray Baker Team at RE/MAX Fine Properties, has spent 31 years navigating Tucson’s real estate cycles. His experience offers insight into how markets recover from slowdowns and what opportunities emerge as conditions shift.

Buyers Gain Negotiating Power

Tucson’s current market is a marked departure from the bidding wars and rapid sales of the COVID era. Inventory has stabilized at a five- to six-month supply, giving buyers more options and leverage in negotiations. Baker explains that buyers today can focus on what they can afford each month and select from a wider range of homes, rather than competing in overheated auctions.

This environment has also changed seller behavior. Sellers are more willing to offer concessions, lower prices, and pay for repairs, something rarely seen during the pandemic boom. Buyers who purchase at today’s higher interest rates, around 6%, are often getting better value for their money. Instead of paying tens of thousands over asking price and waiving repairs, as many did during the pandemic, buyers now have the upper hand in negotiations and often spend less out of pocket at closing.

Comparing today’s market to the recent past, Baker notes that buyers who rushed to lock in 3% mortgage rates often paid well above market value in bidding wars. In contrast, today’s buyers may face higher rates but can negotiate price, secure seller-paid repairs, and avoid the intense competition of the COVID period.

The Changing Role of Real Estate Expertise

The way people buy and sell homes has changed dramatically over the past three decades, largely due to technology. Baker’s career has spanned the transition from pre-internet home searches, when agents physically retrieved keys and showed every available property in person, to today’s AI-driven recommendations and online listings.

While buyers now arrive better informed, this hasn’t made professional expertise less important. In fact, Baker finds that today’s clients ask more sophisticated questions and are more interested in planning for long-term wealth through real estate. Agents must be prepared to guide buyers not just through a single transaction, but also in building an investment strategy.

Deal Preservation and Experience

Baker’s team has maintained a 99% closing ratio, a result he attributes to experience, especially during the repair inspection phase, which is the most common point where deals fall apart. Many cancellations occur because agents lack the knowledge to help clients navigate repair negotiations. Baker’s team has handled thousands of contracts, giving them the ability to resolve issues that might derail less experienced agents.

Repeat buyers, in particular, seek out agents with a proven track record. They are careful to work with someone referred or recommended, often because they have had negative experiences in the past. For these buyers, experience and wisdom are essential, especially in a more complex market.

Investment Trends and Market Dynamics

Investment activity in Tucson is shifting. Corporate and institutional investment has slowed, partly due to regulatory changes and political factors. In its place, individual investors, often first-time “Mom and Pop” landlords, are becoming more active. Baker notes that his team now spends more time educating these buyers on how to acquire a property, hold it, and then buy another, turning the first into a rental.

This hands-on education is attracting younger buyers interested in building real estate portfolios and actively seeking advice on how to do so. As corporate investment slows, local investors are stepping in to fill the gap, contributing to market stability and creating new opportunities for long-term wealth building.

Market Intelligence for Professionals and Investors

For real estate professionals and investors, several clear themes emerge from Baker’s perspective: timing is critical in market cycles, professional expertise is invaluable in complex negotiations, and new opportunities arise during periods of transition.

Baker advises buyers and investors to use every tool available — AI, online research, and professional guidance — to make informed decisions. He emphasizes that real estate remains one of the largest and most important investments most people will make, and careful research is essential.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, Tucson’s housing market appears positioned for steady, balanced growth through 2026. As more buyers recognize that conditions are workable — with inventory still healthy and sellers open to negotiation — pent-up demand is likely to re-enter the market. That release could gradually tighten supply later in the year, particularly if buyer activity accelerates.

At the same time, rising permit activity and local efforts to streamline development are expected to bring more new construction online. An increase in newly built homes should expand buyer options and help moderate price pressures, even as demand picks up.

If these trends hold, Tucson will continue to offer a rare equilibrium: enough inventory to provide leverage, enough demand to support values, and enough new supply to prevent sharp price swings. For buyers, sellers, and investors alike, the months ahead will reward those who move strategically — before tightening inventory or shifting demand begins to reshape the balance.