Northern Virginia Agent Says Mortgage Rate Shock Is Forcing Buyers Out of Traditional Markets

Written by:

Rudi Davis

Date:

29 Jan 2026

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High mortgage rates and persistent home prices are forcing buyers in Northern Virginia to reconsider where they can afford to live, according to Desiree Rejeili, Principal/Owner of Desiree Sells Homes LLC. Rejeili, who works with buyers across the region, says that neighborhoods once considered the default for move-up buyers, such as Arlington and Alexandria, are now out of reach for many. Instead, buyers are looking to Maryland or West Virginia, not out of preference, but because their budgets no longer stretch to Northern Virginia’s traditional hotspots.

“I’m actually working with a buyer now, they live in Northern Virginia. They want to buy but are looking into Maryland because it’s more affordable and they can get more house out there,” Rejeili says. This is not a short-term response to changing market conditions, she explains, but a lasting recalculation of where buyers can realistically put down roots given the current cost of borrowing.

Mortgage Payments Redefining Search Boundaries

The impact of higher mortgage rates is stark and immediate. Rejeili points to a typical scenario: “What would have been, like, a mortgage payment of let’s say twenty-eight hundred what it used to be. And now that same house is 4505, that’s a huge difference,” she explains. This $1,700 monthly increase is not something buyers can absorb or negotiate away. Instead, it pushes them to consider entirely different markets.

Data from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors shows that inventory is up 45 percent and homes are spending more time on the market. But Rejeili argues that the numbers only tell part of the story. She sees buyers leaving Northern Virginia for places like Winchester, West Virginia, and Maryland, where housing is more affordable. “Going out like, let’s say in the northern Virginia area, like flocking to like Winchester, maybe some also, people like West Virginia, some people from Virginia coming to Maryland because Maryland is a lot cheaper also,” she says.

These are not minor adjustments in a buyer’s search radius. Rejeili describes clients who have fundamentally changed their expectations about where they can live, driven entirely by the math of monthly payments. When rates were in the twos and threes, these buyers would have stayed in premium Northern Virginia zip codes. They are now expanding their searches across state lines.

Where Buyers Are Moving Now

While Loudoun County still attracts higher-budget buyers, Rejeili says most buyers are gravitating toward Prince William County and certain parts of Fairfax County. These areas offer more space for the money and are increasingly appealing to those priced out of the region’s most expensive neighborhoods. “Another hot market would be like parts of Prince William County. You know, like you have the Woodbridge Manassas, Gainesville area, the homes are more affordable there, so that could attract a lot of buyers who you know can’t afford Loudoun County,” she says.

Rejeili highlights the infrastructure advantages in these secondary markets, particularly the Virginia Railway Express (VRE), which offers a practical commuting option for those moving farther out. “You’ve got the VRE, you know. So it’s a good commuter corridor for commuters,” she notes. Access to reliable transportation helps buyers justify the move, even if it means a longer commute.

The rise of remote work is also reshaping buyer priorities. Rejeili observes that many clients now insist on dedicated home office space, which can be challenging to find or afford in closer-in areas. “A lot of folks work from home. So having like some dedicated home office space is a must for a lot of my buyers,” she says. The ability to work remotely makes location less critical for some, allowing them to seek out larger homes in less expensive areas.

Why the Shift May Be Permanent

Rejeili does not expect mortgage rates to return to the unusually low levels seen in 2021 and 2022. “I don’t think we’re ever going to see the two and 3% and 4% in factories. I think it’s probably going to stay in the 5s, which is a great rate still, but I think we got spoiled, you know, a couple of years off,” she says.

If rates remain in the 5% range or higher, the migration to more affordable areas is unlikely to reverse. Buyers who have already adjusted their expectations and moved to new markets may not return to previous search areas, even if rates drop slightly from recent highs. This signals a lasting shift in the region’s housing landscape, where affordability, rather than preference, is shaping where people live.

Rejeili also points to a “lock-in effect” that is limiting supply in premium markets. Many homeowners who secured ultra-low rates during the pandemic are unwilling to sell, knowing they would have to buy their next home at a much higher interest rate. “You got people who, who got lucky and got into this very low rate, and they don’t want to sell their home. Now, they don’t want to sell because they sell, they’re going to lose that rate, and then they’re going to buy another house with the high rate,” Rejeili explains. This dynamic is keeping inventory tight at the top end, further fueling the shift to more affordable locations.

Renewed Confidence

Recent policy developments may be encouraging some buyers to re-enter the market. Rejeili references news that the federal government has directed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to help lower rates. “With the recent news about the mortgage rates that the Trump Administration, you know, had requested of those two giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to buy two hundred billion worth of bonds to drive the rates down, I feel it’s like the link confidence and buyers now and they’re coming out and you know, ready to buy,” she observes.

Combined with rates that have dropped from the sevens and eights to the fives and sixes, Rejeili believes this could bring hesitant buyers back into the market. “I think I feel that this year is going to be a great year, and I feel like a lot of buyers are going to get back into the market. The ones that have been sitting on the sidelines, I feel they’re going to start coming out and buying homes,” she says.

However, whether these buyers return to Arlington, Alexandria, and other traditional Northern Virginia markets—or continue seeking out more affordable alternatives—will depend on how much further rates fall and whether prices in premium neighborhoods adjust enough to restore lost purchasing power.

Looking Ahead: A New Map for Northern Virginia Buyers

Northern Virginia’s housing market is settling into a new reality where affordability is the deciding factor for most buyers. The era of ultra-low rates is over, and the resulting geographic redistribution appears likely to persist. Buyers are now making decisions based less on historical prestige or commute times and more on what their monthly payment will actually buy. For sellers and agents, understanding this shift is critical: the market is no longer defined by old boundaries, but by new lines drawn by borrowing costs and household budget limits.