The Sarasota real estate market is dividing sharply along geographic lines, with planned communities like Lakewood Ranch continuing to attract buyers and investment while outlying areas that surged during the pandemic are now seeing prices fall. This divergence marks a significant shift from the broad-based appreciation that characterized the market just a few years ago.
Nazar Bas, a realtor with Coldwell Banker Realty who specializes in both residential and investment properties across Sarasota, reports that the performance gap between submarkets has widened over the past year. “Lakewood Ranch is probably one of the most popular right now,” Bas says. “It’s mostly new construction. It’s family-oriented. So if there is a family with kids, there are a lot of outdoor activities and a lot of infrastructure for them. That would be probably number one for young families, for first-time buyers.”
Bas points to several factors behind Lakewood Ranch’s continued popularity: a steady supply of new homes, amenities designed for families, and competitive pricing compared to waterfront neighborhoods. For buyers prioritizing schools, parks, and community features, Lakewood Ranch has become the leading choice.
In contrast, Bas says that areas such as North Port and Charlotte County, which saw rapid price increases during the pandemic, are now experiencing the steepest declines. “What areas are not doing that great right now is that, let’s say North Port, Charlotte,” Bas explains. “Because of huge demand, the prices have increased so much. Now, with less demand, the price is going down in those areas.”
He attributes these corrections to factors that have made these locations less attractive in the current market cycle. “They’re not so close to the water, and they are not as family-oriented as kids. So you know that these areas are definitely… we are seeing prices going down mostly,” Bas says.
This softening comes as the market adjusts from the pandemic-era frenzy, when buyers were less selective, and inventory was scarce across the region. Now, with more options available and buyer priorities shifting, demand is concentrating in areas with clear lifestyle or investment advantages. As a result, capital is flowing toward communities with established infrastructure and away from locations that relied mainly on availability and affordability.
Lakewood Ranch’s success, Bas notes, is not limited to its new construction. “This is a planned community oriented towards families with kids, so there are a lot of outdoor activities, a lot of infrastructure for that,” he says. The availability of inventory and price points accessible to first-time buyers and young families further enhances the area’s appeal.
These qualities have helped Lakewood Ranch maintain strong demand even as other areas cool. “It’s all new and with a lot of inventory there, you can get a decent price,” Bas adds. The emphasis on community features and modern homes aligns closely with what many buyers now seek, making the area resilient to broader market slowdowns.
For investors, Bas warns that the current market requires a more analytical approach than in previous years. “If you’re an investor, do not make emotional decisions; just look strictly at the numbers. Because even in good areas, which you think of as good areas, they’re not always good for investment purposes,” he advises.
Successful investment, he says, depends on understanding both the sales and rental markets at the neighborhood level. “That’s why you need professional advice. You need somebody who knows the market locally, who knows the rental sales market and also the rental market,” Bas says.
He notes that some areas with strong reputations have not delivered strong returns when rental demand is weak or when further appreciation is limited by location or a lack of amenities. As the market matures, investors are being forced to distinguish between perceived prestige and actual income or potential for appreciation.
Despite the rise of inland planned communities, Bas says that waterfront properties remain highly desirable and continue to command premium pricing. “If you’re in a good location, if you’re close to the beach, there is always going to be opportunity there, for sure,” he says.
However, Bas cautions that even in premium locations, investors should focus on finding value rather than assuming all properties will appreciate. “Now is a time where it’s a good time for buyers to get a good deal, because the market will go back to the seller’s market. But right now, it’s a totally buyer’s market,” he says.
The sharp geographic divergence in Sarasota’s market suggests a longer-term reordering as the area moves beyond the pandemic boom. Locations that saw the fastest price gains, driven by migration and limited inventory, are now correcting, while communities with established infrastructure and amenities are holding their value or even gaining ground.
For developers and investors, this means that future growth is likely to cluster in areas offering clear advantages—whether that’s family-focused infrastructure, new construction, or proximity to employment and recreation. Outlying areas that are losing value may need to invest in new amenities or infrastructure to compete, or they may settle into a lower-priced tier.
As Sarasota’s market matures, buyers and investors alike are being forced to weigh the tangible benefits of each neighborhood rather than relying on broad trends or past performance. The current buyer’s market is exposing which areas can sustain demand and which are most vulnerable to correction.
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