San Antonio’s Real Estate Market Settles Into New Equilibrium After Two Decades of Swings

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

19 Dec 2025

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San Antonio’s real estate market is stabilizing after two decades of dramatic ups and downs, according to Jerry Newman, a veteran agent with Brown Realty & Property Management. With 23 years in the business, Newman has seen the city move from an inventory-heavy buyer’s market in the early 2000s to the frenzied seller’s market that peaked during the pandemic. Now, as 2025 comes to a close, San Antonio is finding a new balance—marked by higher inventory, slower sales, and renewed negotiation between buyers and sellers.

A Market Shaped by Extremes

Newman’s perspective stretches back to 2002, when he left the medical field to enter real estate. At that time, San Antonio was mired in a prolonged buyer’s market dominated by foreclosures and abundant listings. “There were a lot of foreclosures out there, and sellers were having a difficult time selling their properties. We had a lot of inventory, and that lasted probably a good seven, eight, nine years,” Newman recalls.

That long glut began to recede about six or seven years ago, accelerating into what Newman describes as “hot market” conditions just before and during the pandemic. “A hot market is where you’ve got more than one buyer—in some cases, as many as 10 or 15 trying to buy the same property. It was very competitive,” he explains. Sellers faced a flood of offers, but choosing the best offer was not always straightforward. “Sometimes the highest bidder is not always the best choice,” Newman notes, pointing to appraisal gaps and financing uncertainties that complicated transactions.

Current Market Dynamics: More Inventory, Slower Pace

Today, San Antonio’s market looks markedly different. Inventory levels have climbed sharply, rising 50–80% year over year, giving buyers more choices and leverage. “When you’re working with a buyer, and the market has shifted to their favor, they can be a little bit more selective of what they want,” Newman says. “They have more properties to choose from, especially when the inventory has shifted to their favor.”

Despite this, activity has slowed since September 2024. Newman attributes much of the slowdown to higher interest rates, which have made buyers more cautious. “I think buyers are reluctant because of the interest rates,” he says. “What some of them don’t know, because they’re young buyers, is that 15 or 20 years ago, the rates were higher than they are now.”

Interest rates have fluctuated substantially over the years. Newman recalls VA loan rates dropping to 2–3% at their lowest, then rising to 6–7% before settling around 4–5% in recent months, depending on lender programs and builder incentives. “You can always buy the rates down with points, and a lot of the new home builders this time of year have attractive incentives, and some of those incentives include buying the rate down,” he explains.

Where Growth Is Happening

Geographically, the strongest growth is concentrated in the northwest and north-central corridors of San Antonio. “The northwest area, that’s the area that’s growing the most. North Central, Northwest is really exploding,” Newman says. “When you compare it to the northeast or the south, the west and central parts of San Antonio have really exploded, and they seem to have the most popular communities.”

This expansion is fueled by both residential development and commercial investment. Newman highlights increased business activity near the Sea World area and in the southern parts of the city. “More and more businesses are coming into San Antonio. You can see in certain areas, like over by the Sea World area, the area has really built up,” he observes.

San Antonio’s appeal to corporations is also drawing new residents from across the country. Newman recently worked with an employee relocating for work, illustrating the city’s growing attractiveness to companies. “San Antonio is becoming more attractive to a lot of corporate businesses that are moving in here,” he notes. However, he points out that the city still lags behind Austin in tech sector growth.

New Construction Faces Value Challenges

New construction is a significant part of the current market, with single-family permits up 6% in early 2024. But Newman says builders face challenges convincing buyers of value. “When you look at a pre-owned home, and the builder is now offering you a new home with fewer features than the older homes that were established,” he says. “I had somebody the other day say, ‘Why would I pay $300,000 for a home that only has a one-car garage?’ And here’s a pre-owned home that’s five or six years old, it has a two-car garage and all the amenities, and it’s the same price or even less.”

While new construction holds particular appeal for first-time buyers, the main attraction is often financial. “New home buyers haven’t saved enough money to cover all of their expenses, like their down payment, the closing costs, and a few other expenses that they weren’t even aware of until they meet with me,” Newman explains. Builders frequently offer incentives to cover these upfront costs, making new homes more accessible for buyers with limited savings.

Migration Driven by Affordability

San Antonio continues to draw buyers from higher-cost states, especially California. The difference in affordability is striking. “You got a two-bedroom home out there [in California] that costs almost a million dollars. And you come here, and you can get a four-bedroom home for $300,000,” Newman says.

These migration patterns include military families, job relocations, and people seeking better value for their money. “We’ve had people coming in from the west, as well as a few coming in from the east, and they’re finding that the market is more affordable,” he observes.

Investors Shift Focus to Flips

Investor activity in San Antonio remains robust, but the focus has shifted. “The majority of investors that reach out to me are looking for homes that need to be fixed up because they want to flip them,” Newman explains. “They want to flip them more than they want to rent them.” When flip projects don’t sell as quickly as planned, some investors switch to rental strategies, occasionally offering rent-to-own arrangements. Newman cautions that “those types of contracts never favor a buyer.”

Looking Ahead: 2026 Market Outlook

As 2026 approaches, Newman sees San Antonio’s market in a state of transition. “Right now, I think going into 2026, the market is pretty much balanced. It’s going to probably shift into a buyer’s market in 2026,” he predicts. The direction will depend on how quickly builders can add new homes compared to the pace of existing home sales.

With current inventory levels at about six to seven months of supply, Newman expects further evolution. “As the inventory increases, more buyers will probably be in the market. So I think 2026 will probably see us getting into a stronger buyer’s market,” he says.

Technology and Adaptation

The real estate industry in San Antonio is also becoming more technology-driven. “Real estate has become more automated, especially since AI has been out there, and more and more agents are getting involved with using AI,” Newman says. For longtime agents like himself, this shift requires adaptation. “It’s going to be a learning curve for some of the older people like myself, but it’s going digital.”

For Newman, who specializes in helping military families and veterans, adaptability is key. “The biggest thing is, to still float, you’ve got to adapt to the changes,” he says.

San Antonio’s outlook remains positive: its combination of affordability, ongoing business growth, and high quality of life continues to attract newcomers. As the market finds a new equilibrium, the city is positioned for continued expansion, even as broader economic challenges persist across the national real estate landscape.