Tampa Bay's Real Estate Outlook: Why Investors Should Look Beyond the Headlines

Written by:

Steve Marcinuk

Date:

04 Jun 2025

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With over 15 years in the Tampa Bay real estate market and a team that consistently closes around 300 transactions annually, Jeffrey Borham, Team Owner of Team Borham at eXp Realty, offers a perspective that challenges national narratives about Florida’s real estate market. His insights reveal opportunities that may be overlooked by those relying solely on headline news.

“Many people assume hurricanes permanently damage real estate markets, but their impact typically lasts just six to nine months… Every city affected by a natural disaster typically sees a thriving real estate market two years later. Natural disasters essentially accelerate neighborhood redevelopment,” says Borham.

The Reality of Tampa Bay’s Market Conditions

While national commentators suggest Florida’s market is just beginning to soften, Borham provides a more nuanced view: “The market not only softened, it is soft. It’s been soft for three years. I get confounded when I hear these comments because, dude, just look at the data. Buyer demand in Florida has been weakened for three years, period.”

However, this softening hasn’t translated to a buyer’s paradise across all segments. “If you’re looking at single-family homes in Tampa Bay, there’s still a four-month supply of inventory. Technically, from an inventory standpoint, we’re still in a seller’s market in single-family homes,” Borham explains.

The disconnect between technical market conditions and market feel is notable. “It feels like a mild buyer’s market,” he says. “Even if you price a home correctly, there’s a good chance you have to do a price reduction. There’s a good chance it’s still going to take 45-60 days to get it under contract.”

This market dynamic varies significantly by property type and price point:

• Single-family homes under $2 million: Still technically a seller’s market with limited inventory
• Luxury homes above $2 million: Experiencing weakness, potentially due to “tariffs and stock market fluctuations in recent months”
• Condo market: Firmly in buyer’s market territory with “about eight and a half to nine months supply of condos in Pinellas, Hillsboro”

The COVID Effect on Transaction Volume

One of the most revealing insights from Borham is the current transaction volume compared to pre-pandemic levels: “Transaction count wise, we’re still in Tampa Bay 20% below 2019 numbers, not 2021, 2019 numbers, pre-COVID.”

This reduction in transactions despite population growth suggests a market correction rather than a fundamental weakness. Borham theorizes: “We really just kind of took some of our moving buyers and got them prematurely. People just moved up their move because of COVID.”

The political dimension of this migration is significant: “Moderates, independents, Republicans in blue states moved to Florida in droves in 2020-2021. I think we just captured some of our moving buyers early.”

Why Tampa Bay Remains a Long-Term Growth Market

Despite the current softness, Borham remains bullish on Tampa Bay’s long-term prospects, citing several key factors driving the region’s appeal:

Superior Natural Amenities

“Our beaches are way better than the East Coast. Clearwater Beach is better. Siesta Key is better. St. Pete Beach is better. We have superior beaches, we have superior water.”

Relative Hurricane Safety

“Tampa Bay has never, ever, still to this day, even though we had damage from storms last year, we have never been hit by a major hurricane ever. We had some glancing blows last year that did cause damage, but Tampa has never taken a direct hit from a major hurricane.”

Lifestyle and Entertainment

“Tampa nightlife is just as good or better [than Austin, Savannah, or Miami]. We have a lot of financial services moving into Tampa. So a lot of money is moving here.”

Demographic Advantages

“Tampa has been the number one destination for millennials who make a minimum of six figures. Tampa has become the cool city for not young-young, but youngish people with money.”

The Hurricane Effect: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain

Perhaps most counterintuitively, Borham sees last year’s hurricane impacts as a catalyst for long-term appreciation rather than a deterrent: “Anyone that thinks that because the area got affected by hurricanes last year, that that’s a negative [is mistaken]. Every city that has ever been hit by a natural disaster, the real estate market is booming two years later.”

This phenomenon occurs because storms often accelerate property improvements and neighborhood redevelopment: “That ranch-style home that was built in the 60s, that was on a prime lot on the water, that was only worth a million, million and half whatever it was, is now going to be a three or $4 million house when the custom home is created on that lot.”

Investment Outlook

For investors considering the Tampa Bay market, Borham’s insights suggest several strategic approaches:

1. Look beyond current transaction volumes: The 20% reduction from 2019 levels indicates potential pent-up demand rather than market weakness.
   
2. Consider property type carefully: Single-family homes under $2 million continue to have limited inventory, while the condo market offers more buyer leverage.
   
3. Don’t be deterred by recent storm impacts: Areas affected by last year’s hurricanes may represent opportunities for long-term appreciation as rebuilding efforts upgrade housing stock.
   
4. Focus on areas attracting high-earning millennials: The influx of six-figure earners in their 30s creates demand for both rental properties and eventual home purchases.
   

Borham confidently predicts: “I would be willing to bet you a very substantial amount of money that if you circle back to Tampa, whether it’s 26 or 27, in the next two to three years max, you will see Tampa on the top five of every real estate article about being one of the hottest markets in America.”