NAI Miami's Craig Merlin on Reading Market Swings in South Florida Real Estate

In an industry where timing is everything, Craig Merlin knows a thing or two about reading the course. The former PGA professional turned commercial real estate broker has transitioned from analyzing golf swings to market swings, bringing a unique perspective to South Florida’s rapidly evolving real estate landscape. His path to real estate wasn’t conventional – it began on the golf course, where he pursued his passion through college and into his early career.

“I basically fell in love with golf when I was in college,” Merlin recalls. “I’m not the standard person to begin with. When everyone’s going left, I’m usually going right.” This entrepreneurial spirit led him to become a PGA Certified Professional, managing tournaments, teaching, and handling daily operations at private facilities.

This early career, particularly at exclusive private clubs, would later prove invaluable in building his real estate network. “Working at private facilities certainly helps because people with money are at those facilities,” Merlin notes. “Even now that I’ve pivoted, I’m seeing a lot of those people in the real estate world.”

The transition to real estate came as Merlin sought new challenges, drawing on his family’s background as limited partners in real estate investments. Now with NAI Miami, where he’s been for five years, Merlin has carved out a unique niche as a client-focused broker. “We are more client-based than anything else,” he explains. “We want to be a full service for our client.” This approach allows him to handle everything from industrial to retail and office properties, both on the tenant rep and landlord rep sides.

As both a broker with NAI Miami and an active investor in the local market, Merlin provides a ground-level view of the transformative forces reshaping Miami’s real estate landscape, bringing both practical experience and strategic insight to his analysis of market trends.

The Citadel Effect: Corporate Migration Reshaping Miami

According to Merlin, the single most significant catalyst for change in South Florida’s real estate market has been Citadel’s decision to relocate from Chicago. “The biggest influencer of change that is coming to South Florida is Citadel,” Merlin emphasizes, noting the hedge fund’s billion-dollar land acquisition in Brickell for their new headquarters.

This move has created a domino effect, with other major tech companies following suit. “After Citadel committed, you’ve got Microsoft coming down. You’ve got Facebook coming down,” Merlin explains. “Citadel was basically the first domino to fall that everybody else followed.”

The impact extends far beyond commercial real estate. These corporate relocations are bringing waves of high-net-worth individuals and executives, transforming everything from residential real estate to educational institutions. “When you have billions of dollars coming into an area, residential real estate goes up,” Merlin notes, adding that even prestigious local schools like Gulliver Prep are seeing increased demand from incoming executives’ families.

Market Segmentation and Opportunities

The evolving market presents varying opportunities across different sectors. Merlin is particularly bullish on retail properties: “We are in very short supply of retail in South Florida, and I don’t care how much the prices have gone up. As long as there’s no supply, prices have to keep going up.”

The office market tells a more nuanced story. While large office spaces face challenges, smaller units are thriving. “The 400 to 1,500 square foot offices, those are gangbusters,” Merlin reports. “I don’t think the South Florida office market is as doomed as people are seeing it throughout the rest of the country.”

2025 Market Challenge: New Condo Regulations

A significant market disruption looms on the horizon with new regulations affecting condo associations. As of January 1, 2025, Florida law requires specific reserve amounts for condo associations, a response to the tragic Surfside collapse. Merlin anticipates this could create significant market turbulence.

“I think the condo market, once these laws begin to get enforced, is going to be the wild west in South Florida,” Merlin predicts. “My guess is nobody has the reserves, and people are going to get massive assessments, and they’re not going to be able to afford it, they’re going to have to sell, even if it’s for major losses.”

Looking Ahead: Development and Density Challenges

With geographic constraints limiting expansion options, South Florida faces unique development challenges. “We have the Atlantic to the east. We have the Everglades to the west. So the only place we can really go is north or south,” Merlin explains. This limitation makes increasing density crucial for sustainable growth.

“We need to increase density if we are to sustain the same growth in South Florida,” Merlin emphasizes. He points to initiatives like the Live Local Act as examples of how government policy might help address these challenges, though he notes the details of such programs continue to evolve.

Market Outlook 2025

As South Florida’s real estate market continues to evolve, Merlin sees both opportunities and challenges ahead. The continued influx of major corporations and their employees suggests sustained demand, particularly in the retail and small office sectors. However, the impending impact of new condo regulations and ongoing affordability challenges could create significant market disruptions in 2025.

For investors and market participants, understanding these dynamics will be crucial. As Merlin puts it, “There are cycles, and understanding and planning for them is crucial if you are to succeed in the real estate world.” This perspective suggests that adaptability and careful market analysis will be key to navigating South Florida’s real estate landscape in the coming years.