Elegran's Jared Antin on New York's "Punishingly Efficient" Real Estate Market

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Date:

24 Mar 2025

“Not every seller is experiencing a seller’s market,” explains Jared Antin, Managing Director at Elegran | Forbes Global Properties. “Sellers of certain types of property may be experiencing a fairly big buyer’s market, and that’s the whole context of trying to explain the nuance behind the data.”

In a real estate landscape fixated on classifying markets as either “buyer’s” or “seller’s,” Antin has identified something more complex at work in New York City—a market he describes as “punishingly efficient.”

The Data-Driven Leader

Recognized by Crain’s as one of New York City’s “Rising Stars,” Antin has spent nearly 15 years at Elegran, rising from agent to Managing Director. As a cornerstone of the Executive Leadership Team, he oversees strategy and operations across the 240-person firm while maintaining his role as the company’s market analyst.

“I’m a finance econ nerd,” he says. “I majored in real estate finance, minored in economics. So I like numbers. I like data.”

This passion for analysis has proven invaluable to Elegran. Since the start of the pandemic, Antin has meticulously tracked market metrics, maintaining a spreadsheet with “hundreds of weeks of data”—more than 260 weeks and counting.

The Birth of a New Market Concept

The term “punishingly efficient” emerged from Antin’s data analysis work, particularly his development of the Leverage Index, which measures negotiating power between buyers and sellers.

Unlike traditional indices that focus solely on supply and demand, Antin’s approach incorporates “price, discount, supply, and demand” to create a more responsive market indicator.

Through this analysis, he noticed something curious. “When we looked at November and December data, and again with March’s data, we’ve had an unusually high contract velocity coupled with a period of seasonally low supply,” he notes.

This combination created a statistical anomaly. “The numbers made the market appear as if it’s a seller’s market,” Antin explains. “And the reality is, it kind of is because the numbers say it is, but it doesn’t actually feel that way.”

This disconnect between data and market experience prompted Antin to develop a more nuanced framework—one that acknowledges the market’s traditional efficiency while recognizing its increasingly selective nature.

Four Critical Success Factors

According to Antin, success in today’s market requires sellers to excel in four specific areas:

“The seller really needs to do four things right to sell today,” he explains. “Of course, they need to price it correctly, but then the right marketing strategy, they need to make sure it has the right composition, and it has the right renovation.”

The market’s punishment comes for those who miss the mark on any of these factors. “Unlike the hot markets of earlier in the pandemic, or in 2012 to 2015, buyers aren’t compromising,” Antin observes. “They’re patient, they’re savvy, and they’re not motivated by some external pressure, like rising prices, fear of mortgage rates, or general FOMO.”

Market Microclimates

Antin’s analysis reveals that New York has evolved beyond a single market into dozens of micromarkets, each with distinct dynamics.

“There’s a huge punishment for properties that are partially renovated,” he notes. “There’s punishment for properties that are too large or too small, where there’s just not a buyer for everything.”

This creates a market where broad statistics can be misleading. “If you have a property like a studio, there’s not a lot of market for studios because people would rather spend a little bit extra and get a one-bedroom where they get more value for the buck,” he explains.

On the other end of the spectrum: “We’ve seen 6,000 square foot three-bedroom apartments, and it’s just too big—you’re not going to get the same linear value on a price per square foot as if that property was 3,500 square feet. There’s a diminishing return.”

Making Data Actionable

What distinguishes Antin’s approach is his focus on practical application. “My issue with many firms who put out market reports is the fact that they dump a ton of information out there, lots of charts, lots of numbers, but they don’t make sense of it,” he says.

His solution is straightforward: “I want to give actionable data and have a ‘so what’ behind it, so that when agents and clients read it, it’s not just a bunch of numbers.”

This philosophy guides Elegran’s market reports, which translate complex data into clear guidance. For each metric, they explain “how it affects you” as a buyer or seller, and offer informed predictions for the coming months.

The Opportunity on the Horizon

Despite the current market complexity, Antin sees potential ahead—particularly in New York’s relative price stability compared to other markets.

“We haven’t seen any price appreciation really since our previous peak in 2016,” he notes. “We’re up about four or five percent since the start of COVID.”

This contrasts dramatically with national trends: “The rest of the country has been up about 74% since our previous peak and over 50% since the start of COVID, on average, with markets like Miami and Tampa well over 100% in that period of time.”

This disparity creates what Antin describes as an “arbitrage opportunity,” positioning New York for potential growth as overheated markets elsewhere begin to moderate.

“I’m looking forward to above-average transaction volume and an increase in pricing here,” he concludes. “That should help get the market moving and put New York City back on track.”