Jared White, Managing Partner at Quadrum Global, argues that traditional market data often lags behind the real opportunities in emerging real estate markets. Instead, he points to a more nuanced “gravitational force” theory that helps identify promising locations before they show up in conventional metrics.
“There is a gravitational force to New York. It has a soul… and there are other cities that have this gravitational force, and it requires an ecosystem,” White says, describing the intangible qualities that precede measurable market growth. According to White, this ecosystem comprises multiple elements that must converge: housing availability, restaurant scenes, cultural nodes, office space, and most importantly, people.
White argues that conventional market analysis often misses these early signals. “By the time you see population growth, income growth, you’ve sort of missed it, because then all your sellers have seen the same data, and their price just went up,” he notes.
White’s firm employs what he describes as a two-layer approach to market analysis. “You want to be in the right city, and then you want to be in the right spot within that city,” he explains. This methodology has led Quadrum Global to focus on markets like Nashville, where natural barriers to downtown development create predictable growth patterns.
For example, White points out that Nashville’s core downtown area is constrained by “a river, a highway, train tracks,” creating clear boundaries that influence development patterns. These physical constraints, combined with the city’s growing gravitational pull, help predict where value will concentrate.
According to White, his firm closely tracks migration patterns using innovative data sources. “We look very intensely at statistics about migration patterns. There are some cool companies that track where people are moving and where they’re coming from, using cell phone data,” he explains.
This granular analysis helps identify cities in transition. White cites Austin as an example, noting that the city “had [gravitational force] prior to COVID. It’s sputtered a little bit, but it’s very much, I think, back.”
White sees major corporate relocations as crucial validation of a market’s potential, but emphasizes that not all corporate moves carry equal weight. “Amazon, they sign a big office building in Nashville. They take a million square foot office building. They can’t unwind that overnight,” he explains, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between different types of corporate commitments.
“I would be much more interested to see companies that are growing moving to someplace than companies that are not,” White adds, suggesting that expanding companies provide stronger market validation than those merely relocating for cost savings.
Quadrum Global’s approach represents an evolution in market analysis, moving beyond traditional metrics to identify emerging opportunities. Their success with projects like The Huron in Greenpoint, Brooklyn – which has broken local price records and achieved 90% sales – validates this methodology.
White suggests that investors and developers need to develop their own “secret sauce” for identifying promising markets. “There’s no recipe for it, but there is a sauce,” he notes, emphasizing that success comes from combining multiple indicators rather than relying on any single metric.
Looking ahead, White sees this approach becoming increasingly important as markets evolve more rapidly. His firm is currently applying these principles to identify new opportunities in markets like Nashville, Austin, Denver, and Seattle, focusing particularly on sites for their Arlo hotel brand expansion.
Explore similar articles from Our Team of Experts.
The rental market has long operated with a fundamental data problem. Property managers, investors, and researchers have struggled with incomplete, inaccurate, or outdated information about r...
The Texas multifamily market has become increasingly attractive to investors seeking value-add opportunities, particularly as market conditions begin to stabilize after years of uncertainty....
