NYC Investment Sales Leader Shares Market Insights Amid Uncertainty

Written by:

Rudi Davis

Date:

16 Dec 2024

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Brandon Polakoff’s journey to becoming a Principal and Executive Director at Avison Young’s Tri-State Investment Sales group is a testament to calculated risk-taking in real estate. After starting his career at Silverstein Properties and a brief stint in private equity, Polakoff made the bold decision to take a 66% pay cut to pursue a career in brokerage – a move that has since proved transformative.

“It was a deviation from what people in my family usually do. It’s usually a very set path, and you take your steps,” says Polakoff, who has risen to become one of New York City’s leading investment sales professionals. Starting with just “30 empty desks” alongside industry veteran James Nelson, Polakoff has helped build a team of several dozen professionals who now handle some of the city’s most significant real estate transactions.

Market Dynamics and Current Challenges

Polakoff’s team, which specializes in transactions ranging from $10 million to $100 million, operates across New York’s core real estate sectors: apartment buildings, retail, office, and development sites. Their current portfolio includes high-profile listings such as a $65 million apartment building in Park Slope, a $60 million development site in Soho, and notably, 281 Park Avenue South – a property that gained notoriety from the Anna Delvey saga.

A significant trend Polakoff has observed is the increasing presence of international buyers in Manhattan’s real estate market. “In the last year, I’ve sold eight to ten buildings to overseas buyers, probably about a quarter of our sales,” he notes, describing recent tours with three different Japanese investment groups. While foreign investment has always been a feature of Manhattan real estate, Polakoff explains that their proportion has increased as local buyers remain on the sidelines.

The office market presents particular challenges. “You can’t speak to anyone in New York City real estate who can definitively tell you what’s going on with office,” Polakoff states. While leasing velocity has improved and there’s been a flight to quality, many buildings face debt exceeding their current value. The situation is further complicated by WeWork’s exposure in the market and ongoing conversions to residential use.

“In a lot of cases, the debt is worth more than the building itself,” Polakoff explains, predicting an increase in short sales as buildings face refinancing challenges. Rather than see owners throw “good money after bad,” he expects lenders to accept losses and resize loans to match current market values.

Looking ahead, Polakoff maintains a measured perspective on market recovery. “People feel optimistic, but there’s still so much volatility today that it’s causing hesitation,” he observes.

“I’m a big believer in working on what I can control,” Polakoff emphasizes, focusing on identifying the right opportunities and buyers rather than trying to predict broader market movements. “My job is to find the right opportunities, keep my head down, find the right buyers. The rest is going to be what it’s going to be.”

Despite the challenges, Polakoff’s team continues to close deals in what they estimate to be about 50 sales annually in the current market conditions. His pragmatic approach to navigating market uncertainty, combined with a deep understanding of New York’s investment sales landscape, positions him well to guide clients through this complex period in real estate history.